Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[weatherpruf]

13 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Yeah, the Rosebud bit is poetic in theory, but let's be real—by the time you're a 78-year-old superintendent, that 4 a.m. snow check is less "childlike wonder" and more "please don't make me explain another lawsuit to the board." The grounds guy says close, you close: it's not nostalgia, it's CYA (cover your ass) wrapped in boots and a flashlight. Still, in a world of endless model runs and liability spreadsheets, there's something grimly satisfying about one last decision boiled down to "looks bad out there." 

With remote learning the old snow days may be a thing of the past. I stopped paying attention when my youngest graduated in 2020 and I retired. Now I follow storms mostly because there ain’t much to do in winter. 2 hours ago I thought we were back on track now the gfs is showing a lot of sleet, which for the record I still think is the outcome down here; single digits and lots of sleet. By here I mean just west of the city.

[weatherpruf]

18 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Yeah, the Rosebud bit is poetic in theory, but let's be real—by the time you're a 78-year-old superintendent, that 4 a.m. snow check is less "childlike wonder" and more "please don't make me explain another lawsuit to the board." The grounds guy says close, you close: it's not nostalgia, it's CYA (cover your ass) wrapped in boots and a flashlight. Still, in a world of endless model runs and liability spreadsheets, there's something grimly satisfying about one last decision boiled down to "looks bad out there." 

Superintendent is a power position like the mayor; I had one who sent home flyers saying they don’t close for snow in places like Michigan so we don’t either. We’d be open when no one else was. Half the teachers would be out and I had to cover their classes and mine. So I decided to call out as well. Was glad to leave that district.

[jm1220]

27 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I wouldn't pay attention to the GFS inside of 24 hours. HRRR is my go to at this point, although I'm pretty giddy about the RRFS coming soon.

HRRR is probably too cold at this range and will come into line with other guidance. I'd love for it to verify too but it's still a little outside of where I'd use it. GFS was always going to cave. NAM getting a little better is somewhat encouraging although losing the GFS to this degree is a little concerning. It's going to sleet a decent amount into the city with this, we just have to hope the heavy snow rates can hold it back as long as possible. SWFEs will just try to screw us over in any way they can and gain the last possible inch north. This is the exact storm type where Boston will get buried. 

[Rwes1]

10° out here for the low. Looking forward to what’s coming. 

[Snowlover11]

6F

[nycsnow]

RGEM is a huge thump. Almost a foot on Long Island 

[eduggs]

[jm1220]

RGEM still looks really good with a huge front end thump.

[WeatherGeek2025]

gm guys i fell asleep, i see gfs was good at 0z but not 6z euro and cmc looked pretty cold at 0z

[nycsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

RGEM still looks really good with a huge front end thump.

The 10:1 and kuch snow maps are the same number, little weird lol

[WeatherGeek2025]

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

HRRR is probably too cold at this range and will come into line with other guidance. I'd love for it to verify too but it's still a little outside of where I'd use it. GFS was always going to cave. NAM getting a little better is somewhat encouraging although losing the GFS to this degree is a little concerning. It's going to sleet a decent amount into the city with this, we just have to hope the heavy snow rates can hold it back as long as possible. SWFEs will just try to screw us over in any way they can and gain the last possible inch north. This is the exact storm type where Boston will get buried. 

hrrr is the best short term model and it looks perfect hope it's right. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

The 10:1 and kuch snow maps are the same number, little weird lol

I don't use kuchera maps, 10-1 when in doubt. We could manage a little better than 10:1 since we're starting so cold but ratios will lower as the mid levels warm up. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

hrrr is the best short term model and it looks perfect hope it's right. 

We're still long range for that model, we're not within 24 hours of most of the event yet, more like 30 hours. If other guidance at 12z trends toward it then sure. 

[TriPol]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

hrrr is the best short term model and it looks perfect hope it's right. 

HRRR is being retired when the RRFS goes live. The goal is to unify and improve upon models like HRRR, HREF, and NAM with a single, advanced system.

[TriPol]

Just now, jm1220 said:

We're still long range for that model, we're not within 24 hours of most of the event yet, more like 30 hours. If other guidance at 12z trends toward it then sure. 

The storm is scheduled to start around 5 am, I believe. Definitely almost 23 hours. I guess it depends on where you live, but we're definitely around 24 hours away.

[Brasiluvsnow]

6 degrees in New City Rockland County right now. That said what indications will there be about how far North the midlevels will be warming without now casting and live reports is there anything else to look at ?

As far as the radar and the position of the 2 lows right now at this moment which model appears to of had depicted what is taking place right now accurately = has there been any one model that has done a good job at predicting what things would be looking like along the coast right now as far as the the path and location of these 2 lows ? 

[nycsnow]

How do we get the RAP to verify? Lol

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

How do we get the RAP to verify? Lol

Yeah.... much as I would love that it's not going to happen. I think something like the RGEM is the high end for this. I'm not sure if these maps show sleet as snow so the 10-1 snow maps that are lame in general for us, you can probably add up to 2" of sleet on top so if it shows 6" for you, sleet could end up with 8" total.

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yeah.... much as I would love that it's not going to happen. I think something like the RGEM is the high end for this. I'm not sure if these maps show sleet as snow so the 10-1 snow maps that are lame in general for us, you can probably add up to 2" of sleet on top so if it shows 6" for you, sleet could end up with 8" total.

Really all depends on how fast the transition happens. If models are to fast even by a couple hours nyc Long Island can achieve 10-12 I have to imagine 

[WeatherGeek2025]

6 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

How do we get the RAP to verify? Lol

where can i find this models radar composite?

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

where can i find this models radar composite?

Best I got, I love tropical tidbits feature but don’t think rap is on there https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012406&fh=2&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[dmillz25]

Down to 9 at the Park

[WeatherGeek2025]

10 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Best I got, I love tropical tidbits feature but don’t think rap is on there https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012406&fh=2&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

it was there rap 09z run looks cold!!!

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

Down to 9 at the Park

Thankfully the wind isn't bad. Otherwise, this would be a lot less tolerable.

[ForestHillWx]

3 degrees out this way.

Sacrus posted the temp map in the other thread; the extent of this airmass is incredible. I think it will factor in our favor; time will tell. Weenie away! 

[eduggs]

What a sweet looking storm for the ALB area. Looking like 24-30 hours of snow up that way. 1"+ liquid, no mixing, great ratios. Those types of long duration, all-snow, big QPF events don't happen very often. Should be a great event for the HV too, but the wraparound shuts off a little quicker than further north.