chrisNJ Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 28 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: it certainly led the way detecting the warm nose from its 84 hour run...there is pretty good agreement now that south of 78 will have a changeover to sleet...the question is does it get all the way up the ny/nj border. The high end amount for this storm have all been sliced little by little. The HRRR is always cold and snowier than reality. Im not saying it might only be 4-6, i am saying the warming alot is real. That will prevent those 10-12 inch amounts in central jersey and Nyc and jersey shore im expecting a heavy thump for about 5 hours from 8-1pm and then sleet and then shuts down to snizzle....5-6 inches with an inch of sleet. maybe 6-8 a call for my area I pretty much agree for our area. It comes down to rates before the pingers. Ill go with 8” snow and sleet. The iceberg will be with us for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 RRFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: RRFS That’s MUCH snowier than its last runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: I HATE THE NAM Didn’t the nam do well the last storm we had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, Prue11 said: Didn’t the nam do well the last storm we had? You need to stop…you’re going to drive yourself nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1/24 00z ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Icon should be snowier than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 9 minutes ago, SACRUS said: RRFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Nice improvement on icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 39 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Nam has to be overdone. Euro has held. I’ll take the blend. 6-10” on Long Island and then sleet Reasonable solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Is all that recon flying for the next system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Oh and I reached out to Upton about radar no reply yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Next frame. RAP and HRRR have been getting warmer all day (not every run, but definitely overall throughout the day) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 9 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Nice improvement on icon To me each run looks around the same, seems every model pretty has the immediate NYC area about 8-11 inches except the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Mix line was collapsing south at 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, mob1 said: Next frame. RAP and HRRR have been getting warmer all day (not every run, but definitely overall throughout the day) Yeah-if mixing is getting close to I-80 in PA here, it would definitely get to the city and LI. They will catch up to the other guidance overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, mob1 said: Next frame. RAP and HRRR have been getting warmer all day (not every run, but definitely overall throughout the day) But if you look @ 21 the mix line starts to collapse kind of like rrfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: To me each run looks around the same, seems every model pretty has the immediate NYC area about 8-11 inches. Icon has gotten better for the island. Solid trends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, jm1220 said: Yeah-if mixing is getting close to I-80 in PA here, it would definitely get to the city and LI. They will catch up to the other guidance overnight. The only one not an 8-12 hit is the Nam, cut a couple of inches off rap and hrr it’s in line with everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Yeah-if mixing is getting close to I-80 in PA here, it would definitely get to the city and LI. They will catch up to the other guidance overnight. It will definitely mix at some point but some models hint at it creepily rapidly into NJ/NYC area and then an initial collapse I guess during heavy precip and coastal takeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: The only one not an 8-12 hit is the Nam, cut a couple of inches off rap and hrr it’s in line with everything Reasonable, I predicted 9” for Central Park last night. 10” for the north shore, 7-8” for the south shore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Hour 19-21 if it went on we’d probably be back to snow by hour 23 @mob1 @jm1220 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, jm1220 said: Reasonable, I predicted 9” for Central Park last night. 10” for the north shore, 7-8” for the south shore. I said Wednesday 8-14 discounting the high totals, hoping it stands. I agree south shore prob 7-8 but also wouldn’t take much at all to hit 10-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 01z HRRR 1hr snowfall rates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 13 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Hour 19-21 if it went on we’d probably be back to snow by hour 23 @mob1 @jm1220 Also just because the sleet line reaches the city that does not mean the accumulation ends. Sleet snow mix will still accumulate just slower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Blend the nam with the colder models and thats where the mixing gets too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 01z HRRR 1hr snowfall rates A closer look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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