EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The warmest the 700 layer gets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Do you think it’s too cold or no? It’s the snowiest model now I think the 3rd party graphics showing the snow-sleet line on the RGEM are probably too far south. The NAM usually wins on this when it is insistent and all guidance has moved towards it. I'm not really sure about the actual thermals on the model - that would be difficult to diagnose without balloon soundings. But even if sleet mixes in to Sussex, Orange, and Putnam I think it will be a snow-sleet mix during the steady precip. as opposed to a clean flip to all sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1pm tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 so far so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 18z NAM looks slower or south with the sleet line through VA and MD initially. Good sign for far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: The warmest the 700 layer gets. There could still be a warm layer below 700 mb and above 850 mb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 NAM looks a hair colder but not much, at least it's not getting worse... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Nam continues to be on its own 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: That looks like a big change, look at eastern Long Island even! Friendly reminder that 700mb is not the warmest level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, eduggs said: Friendly reminder that 700mb is not the warmest level. I thought it was the nam being posted l ol disregard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 not much change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Nam continues to be on its own It was a little colder than the last run. So thats a step towards the others. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Still an early flip to sleet for most on here on the NAM but did up snow totals by about an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7pm tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Nam continues to be on its own First tick back to the rest, hopefully it went overboard with the warm nose and falls in line with the rest of the guidance. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Joe4alb said: not much change Sleet likewise further south on this run. Affects the northern burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 4pm 19 and sleet lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 not much change That's like 30 miles man. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Need another tick or two south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 NAM better. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Jt17 said: That's like 30 miles man. . It is but it mainly only helps places between 84 and 287 this run, would need another 30 mile tick to mean much for NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Joe4alb said: not much change Hopefully tonight's 00z gets better, then I'll start to legit worry it's onto something. I consider this the low end and RGEM the high end if all goes perfectly. This run looked maybe a hair better but all in all still sucks. Tough forecast for NYC because it's really a couple hour difference and intensity of the initial snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcmmKU Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 hours ago, NEG NAO said: so what is the best mesoscale model to use this go around ? The HRRR performed well last weekend NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Rrfs follows 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: 19 and sleet lol Location of that please? Can't figure it out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: It is but it mainly only helps places between 84 and 287 this run, would need another 30 mile tick to mean much for NYC metro. No. It gave Long Island a nice bump up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1/24 18z nam total qpf total snow (10:1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I don't think the NAM will come more south but at least it ticking south brings NYC back into warning level snow and a low end disaster scenario seems less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 It is but it mainly only helps places between 84 and 287 this run, would need another 30 mile tick to mean much for NYC metro.Yea I mean it just did 30 miles on 1 run. 30 miles more and it will look like everything else. Then the main differences just become if the intensity - if Reggie is right everybody will be happy. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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