SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1/24 00z ICON total storm QPF Total snow / Frz (10:1) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Epic bust if Nam is correct. Gives me in central NJ like 3" before going to sleet lol If NAM is correct they should not retire it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 14 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 1/24 00Z NYC QPF / Snow (Frz) SREF (mean): 1.3 / 9.7 NAM: 1.2 / 4.7 ICON: 1.4 / 8.1 Updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, David-LI said: If NAM is correct they should not retire it. I guess we'll find out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Talk about no change run to run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: So the 12k flipped to sleet quicker but the sleet line did not get as far north which is a step in the right direction. We need 1 more tick like that. We need the snow shield to be heavier/steadier. In 3 hours that NAM run surged the sleet line from Wilmington DE to Staten Island. The heavy precip is when it's sleeting. It would be varying snow rates for a few hours then all out sleetstorm for 60-70% of the precip that falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I'm not buying freezing rain vs snow, theres going to be a lot of sleet in between. Almost all of the guidance, including the NAM have the 875 mb layer down to the surface well below freezing. That would produce sleet. Some freezing drizzle can't be ruled out at some point, but the steady precipitation following the changeover from snow should be sleet. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: They weren't better. People forget the massive shift within 48 hrs for the 12/26/10 blizzard for example. I thought that one was lost OTS. But didn't the euro keep it? One model kept it.. they were still better back then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Talk about no change run to run lol. This hurts my soul 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I can practically hear snowman19's giddiness after seeing the Nam. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The soon to replace NAM (q2?) RRFS - Rapid Refresh Forecast System 1/24 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Blizzardo said: But didn't the euro keep it? One model kept it.. they were still better back then.. No they all lost it 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I can practically hear snowman19's giddiness after seeing the Nam. Meh he had it not coming north 2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: The soon to replace NAM (q2?) RRFS - Rapid Refresh Forecast System 1/24 00z That’s colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, SACRUS said: The soon to replace NAM (q2?) RRFS - Rapid Refresh Forecast System 1/24 00z That includes sleet. The WB maps show a disastrous outcome with sleet getting well north of I-80 and just 6” for the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Meh he had it not coming north 2 days ago Yeah so much for suppression fears Trough out west was a big red flag for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Talk about no change run to run lol. 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: This hurts my soul You ok? Icon added 3” for you in one run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, LVblizzard said: That includes sleet. The WB maps show a disastrous outcome with sleet getting well north of I-80 and just 6” for the city. It’s colder than it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Talk about no change run to run lol. consistency either means right or consistently lost lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The other hi-res guidance seems to be better with the great front end thump. So the NAM is by itself so far with such a lame outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: No they all lost it 3 days out And the GFS was first to bring it back. For a time, it was the only model showing a big storm, but its solutions were dismissed on grounds that they were the result of initialization errors. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 You ok? Icon added 3” for you in one run. lol people see what they want to see . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, jm1220 said: The other hi-res guidance seems to be better with the great front end thump. So the NAM is by itself so far with such a lame outcome. The NAM is totally out on its own. The other models are trending colder and snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 reggie? eedit/:::brrrrrr outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: reggie? eedit/:::brrrrrr outside Not running yet for some reason Went from 36 to 19 in thr past 4 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, psv88 said: The NAM is totally out on its own. The other models are trending colder and snowier. I'll give what it shows tomorrow a lot more weight than tonight but it's great at picking up warm layers so we can't discount it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: reggie? eedit/:::brrrrrr outside Seems delayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Haven’t had a chance to read the forums today but have stayed with the model runs; any thoughts on why the NWS maps are so aggressive? Well south of me in Toms River is still coded 10-15, and that just doesn’t seem likely based on the majority of guidance. Are they weighing the GFS more because it seemed to hold to a snowier outcome? Just being cautious? This is a tough one thing to pin down exact mix lines / lanes, any wiggle could shift totals - so logically surmising they’re just playing safe? Just seems awfully aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: And the GFS was first to bring it back. For a time, it was the only model showing a big storm, but its solutions were dismissed on grounds that they were the result of initialization errors. Yea I remember one model still had it... Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, psv88 said: The NAM is totally out on its own. The other models are trending colder and snowier. Seems they are mostly holding steady as opposed to trending any particular way. Either way yes the NAM seems to be the outlier now, although if it's the outlier 24 hours from now I'd take it more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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