North and West Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 This is becoming less exciting lolHey neighbor… just remember, none of us have any control over that’s going to happen. And whatever does happen, try to enjoy it or have some time to relax as it snows outside.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Already down to 22 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You’re consistently the most pessimistic poster here so your comment isn’t surprising. Maybe he meant to the high side? Considering past post though I doubt it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: Already down to 22 here 21 here. Dropping like a rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Already down to 22 here I'm at 25 already and going to 10 by 6am it says.. damn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 38 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Part of me thinks he’s just bitter that the storm trended to a sleet/ice storm for his area and now he’s rooting on an enormous north trend to spite the rest of I-95 too. That was always going to happen but his weather oracle failed him again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 16 in New City Rockland County and yep its brrrrrrr out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman92 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Between 7 and 14 degrees during the snowstorm for me is going to be insane. The fingers will freeze while shoveling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Snowman92 said: Between 7 and 14 degrees during the snowstorm for me is going to be insane. The fingers will freeze while shoveling They make some nice gloves you know... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 17 here. Feel like temp of -1. Let’s go NAM! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. T. Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 0z HRRR. Still early to use, but starting off with the 0z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Down to 22 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Down to 22 already 18 in Riverdale NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1/24 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 HRRR 0z and Nam 18z same hour! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 @500mb through 27 hours Cabo energy is captured (faster than the 18z for sure) and already tilted negative. I wonder if an earlier capture of that Cabo energy would be better. If it gets caught in the flow earlier, maybe it loses its amplitude further south resulting in less WAA aloft by the time it gets to our latitude... just spitballing theories though, looking for cold lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said: @500mb through 27 hours Cabo energy is captured (faster than the 18z for sure) and already tilted negative. I wonder if an earlier capture of that Cabo energy would be better. If it gets caught in the flow earlier, maybe it loses its amplitude further south resulting in less WAA aloft by the time it gets to our latitude... just spitballing theories though, looking for cold lol All that really matters anymore is where the primary transfers to the coast. The further North that happens, the more warm air will be pumped in but also the more precip there will be. It’s a double edged sword. The rest is just noise. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: All that really matters anymore is where the primary transfers to the coast. The further North that happens, the more warm air will be pumped in but also the more precip there will be. It’s a double edged sword. The rest is just noise. i'd rather get 10 inches of snow and no sleet than 9 inches of snow and a bunch of sleet. I like snows that rips from beginning to the end! seems like lately that's hard to come by cause It seems like the city always gets some type of wintry mix! I can't stand wintery mix! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EW9616 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I’ve seen some TV Mets referring and showing the Graf model that shows little mixing. Anyone know what model that is? Is correlated with one of the main US model? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 looks worse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, EW9616 said: I’ve seen some TV Mets referring and showing the Graf model that shows little mixing. Anyone know what model that is? Is correlated with one of the main US model? . GRAF refers to an AI-based global weather forecasting model developed by NOAA (GSL) and collaborators, and the name stands for: GRAF = Global Regression AI Forecast model It’s part of the new generation of machine-learning weather models, similar in spirit to GraphCast or Pangu, but developed inside the NOAA ecosystem. What is the GRAF model? GRAF is a pure machine-learning global forecast model that: Learns atmospheric evolution from historical reanalysis data Produces global forecasts without explicitly solving physical equations Uses regression-based deep learning to predict future atmospheric states Think of it as: “AI learning how the atmosphere usually evolves, then extrapolating forward.” Key characteristics Global coverage AI / ML-based (no traditional physics core) Predicts large-scale fields (e.g., 500 mb heights, winds, temps, MSLP) Extremely fast compared to physics models Designed primarily for pattern and flow prediction What GRAF is good at Large-scale synoptic pattern recognition Jet stream placement Ridge / trough evolution Medium-range guidance (Days 3–7) This makes it useful for: Pattern forecasting Ensemble support Early signal detection What GRAF is NOT good at Precipitation amounts Snowfall totals Precipitation type Mesoscale features (banding, fronts) Boundary-layer processes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: looks worse Not sure about that…maybe just faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: looks worse Yup. Expect 8-12 inches then a flip to sleet . This was never our storm except on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Has the NWS clarified if we should expect to receive puking or ripping snowfall rates?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Not sure about that…maybe just faster. Thump looks better actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Meh 0z NAM extremely torchy more so than 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Neblizzard said: Yup. Expect 8-12 inches then a flip to sleet . This was never our storm except on the GFS How is a foot of snow “not our storm”? what a crazy comment 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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