scottynic Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 any way to tell if this is light fluffy or heavy wet snow before the change over??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 22 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow MT Holly Same. Very aggressive. Especially SNJ. Again, they know what they are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 NWS likes to put the higher end potential then adjust down rather than the other way around. Still time for colder adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, scottynic said: any way to tell if this is light fluffy or heavy wet snow before the change over??? Will become wetter before any mixing but will start very light and fluffy due to the very cold temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 When/if the changeover occurs, it will compact down for sure especially if it occurs during the heavier precip instead of waiting for a more “dry slot” snizzle/sleet scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow MT Holly I can see the Mount Pocono, Allentown and Sussex numbers verifying. Not so sure about the other ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Nibor said: I can see the Mount Pocono, Allentown and Sussex numbers verifying. Not so sure about the other ones. and Morristown, right? Right?!? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 15 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Mount Holly's forecast goes out 12 more hours 7 AM Monday - Upton ends at 7 PM Sunday Main reason for the diff. They actually align. . well that changes my whole understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, North and West said: and Morristown, right? Right?!? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, Nibor said: I can see the Mount Pocono, Allentown and Sussex numbers verifying. Not so sure about the other ones. It's hard to imagine this scenario where Sussex ends up with only an inch more than Cape May. It could happen, but I don't see it. Wonder what they're thinking is, other than twice the precip in south Jersey? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: It's hard to imagine this scenario where Sussex ends up with only an inch more than Cape May. It could happen, but I don't see it. Wonder what they're thinking is, other than twice the precip in south Jersey? Maybe they are considering a mixing issue? Only guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 That upton map….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said: When/if the changeover occurs, it will compact down for sure especially if it occurs during the heavier precip instead of waiting for a more “dry slot” snizzle/sleet scenario Storm totals are supposed to be the high depth amount for the day. Should for instance 10 inches compact down to seven or eight people are supposed to record 10. Of course it doesn't always happen that way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 16 minutes ago, MANDA said: Same. Very aggressive. Especially SNJ. Again, they know what they are doing. Ehh I’d argue they have been far less accurate than a lot of the smart folks on this board. I can tell you in the C NJ area they have had some hideously aggressive (and wrong) snow forecasts in recent years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: It's hard to imagine this scenario where Sussex ends up with only an inch more than Cape May. It could happen, but I don't see it. Wonder what they're thinking is, other than twice the precip in south Jersey? They can always revise down with the next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 If they are using the NBM then that may explain it. They also should stop doing that. 1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said: Ehh I’d argue they have been far less accurate than a lot of the smart folks on this board. I can tell you in the C NJ area they have had some hideously aggressive (and wrong) snow forecasts in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Ehh I’d argue they have been far less accurate than a lot of the smart folks on this board. I can tell you in the C NJ area they have had some hideously aggressive (and wrong) snow forecasts in recent years. Seems that way to me too. Often seems like they're one cycle behind the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 35 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Mt holly not even aligning with Upton..sigh Uptons map is only through 7 PM Sunday. I'm not really sure why they would put out a map to that point in time when there may be several hours of accumulating snow still to go in many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 49 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I agree. I remember the huge snow mounds in the city after the 3/14/17 storm even though a huge amount was sleet. Sleet has a disproportionately high impact for how much of it falls-1” of sleet is the same water content as 3-4” of snow and it tends to stick around a lot longer. I’d rather it snow all things considered but anyone who wants deep long lasting snowpack shouldn’t complain about some sleet thrown in after a big thump of snow. I definitely would prefer all snow, or just all rain, than sleet, or even worse, freezing rain. Give me 6" of all snow instead of 10"-14" of snow, then sleet or freezing rain on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 If this storm underperforms regarding snow, I feel like the March 11ish 2017 storm ( Miller B also ) might be a decent analog. 12 to 20 inches of snow was initially forecasted for NYC, but the City received about a half foot of sleet because the upper low tucked in just east of the Jersey Shore and south of Long Island. Obviously this weekend's storm impacts a much larger portion of the US... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Storm totals are supposed to be the high depth amount for the day. Should for instance 10 inches compact down to seven or eight people are supposed to record 10. Of course it doesn't always happen that way. Right, I was originally responding to someone but I did it on Tapatalk instead of the browser by mistake so my response blew up, so I edited it down and cut out some stuff by mistake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The NWS going hog-wild at this point is surprising. Think they get burned going so high, personally, but we’re not THAT far off from a colder, all-snow scenario I suppose 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 16 minutes ago, North and West said: and Morristown, right? Right?!? Ha! I'm in Rockaway borough.. I have no idea whether to expect 18 inches or 8. It's facinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: I definitely would prefer all snow, or just all rain, than sleet, or even worse, freezing rain. Give me 6" of all snow instead of 10"-14" of snow, then sleet or freezing rain on top of it. I'm not sure why. 10 to 14 inches of snow with a layer of sleet and freezing rain on top of it sticks around a hell of a lot longer than 6 inches of plain snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I'll ask them and look at they're storm briefing on slack in a mintue. Total QPF for the event should be roughly between 1.0-1.5 inches. Watch mentions a boilerplate 6-12 inches likely with localized accumulations over 12 inches, but the above QPF with higher snow ratios could yield widespread potential accumulations of over a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 20 minutes ago, Nibor said: They can always revise down with the next update. Wouldn't you think they would want it the other way? I don't know, I would think they would lose the public's confidence by going down more so than going up. I won't beat it to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 This should appease the masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Here you go Upton map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, MANDA said: Wouldn't you think they would want it the other way? I don't know, I would think they would will the public's confidence by going down more so than going up. I won't beat it to death. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, OrangeCTWX said: How did you get that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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