snywx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 7 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I think the northern areas of the forum should see a foot easy, even up to 15-18 in select spots. 12-18” looking more and more likely for us up here 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Snow starts between 2 - 6 am Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 This is the concern right here. The Delmarva, SNJ, CVA up to DCA were progged for 12+ for days (still might get it). But the NAM warms the mid-levels so fast that the duration of snow is too short lived for major (6+) accumulations. If this keeps trending in the same direction, we are at risk for a similar fate. It has happened many times in the past and often in hindsight people say it was obvious with a trof axis so far west. Fortunately the NAM is also sometimes too amped at this range. But it should not be completely dismissed. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The front end thump is solid. There's a higher ceiling with this than usual too. I find that thumps in SWFEs tend to underachieve a bit and mix quicker than modeled. I think the higher ceiling depends on if the costal gets going but otherwise looks like a 6-8" to sleet type of deal for coastal areas. Those in Rockland and further NW look to be in a great spot for major snows but 6-8" would be the biggest storm in years for coastal areas so we'll certainly take that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 26 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Lol so we riding the nam? Not saying its wrong but making a call off one model is a bit silly. its not the nam run , its the nam picking up on some of the same idea that other models are showing 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Looks colder and weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 GFS looks like it'll hold serve but at this point I'm not taking it too seriously with all the other models more amped. I'd expect at least some mixing at least to the I95 corridor but still think a significant thump possible/likely first, maybe some backend snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Not taking the GFS too seriously. Its own AI version doesn’t even agree with it. As much as I wish I could because hour 93 is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Gfs only gets the primary to Tennessee an jumps to the coast. That's ideal for us an something to watch. All others have it into wv or pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 31 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: yup; 6-10 seems right for most; still laughing thinking about people two days ago talking about 20/25:1 ratios This is a classic SWFE event where we thump and end as sleet Yeah the ratio thing is silly. But I still think a 12+ solution in possible. The 6z ECM/ECM-AI looked solid. Same with the 12z RGEM. We just have to hope for a flatter shortwave across the mid-south and mid-west in the run up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I would love for the GFS to verify but it's the outlier. I am going all in with Euro AI. if Euro AI verified it'd be 8-12 in the city followed by sleet which would keep my snow for weeks on the ground. I'm happy with that and there's more chances of snow down the road! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, eduggs said: Yeah the ratio thing is silly. But I still think a 12+ solution in possible. The 6z ECM/ECM-AI looked solid. Same with the 12z RGEM. We just have to hope for a flatter shortwave across the mid-south and mid-west in the run up. Gfs looks great too. But that model sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The closet the mixing gets on the gfs atleast based on those images is like toms river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Gfs is less of a thump but longer duration with heavier stuff at night when all the other models have us flipping by that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Looks colder and weaker The faster it transfers to a coastal the better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Gfs only gets the primary to Tennessee an jumps to the coast. That's ideal for us an something to watch. All others have it into wv or pa Theres just no reason to believe the GFS unless it gets any other model support. The alternative scenario of the other models is not that bad though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Gfs is a hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Gfs is less of a thump but longer duration with heavier stuff at night when all the other models have us flipping by that time Gfs is also slower with the precip arrival and lasts longer on Monday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Sure everybody would enjoy a 6"+ thump on Sunday. But it's much more enjoyable if you don't have to sweat the pending sleet. The hypervigilance for the tell-tale signs of change over distracts from the experience. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, eduggs said: Sure everybody would enjoy a 6"+ thump on Sunday. But it's much more enjoyable if you don't have to sweat the pending sleet. The hypervigilance for the tell-tale signs of change over distracts from the experience. Or you just allow yourself to enjoy it? What's so bad about sleet on top of snow anyway? It's not rain. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 What's funny is that if the GFS was bad people would committing suicide. Its a perfect solution and people say "Well it sucks." Gotta love weenie mentality! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12 hours ago, Snowguy66 said: What's with the 2 lows Miller B set up. Primary low, transfers energy to secondary low off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 AIGFS doesn't agree with the GFS OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1/22 12z GFS total QPF: Total snow/sleet (10:1) - again with a long / linger snow duration through Monday afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Or you just allow yourself to enjoy it? What's so bad about sleet on top of snow anyway? It's not rain. I have been saying this for days. We are all getting snow. There are things can go wrong in every storm. Here, we are locked to see a major winter storm. We can chat about model output, but repeating that you are "Concerned" its not necessary. Ruins the vibe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 15 minutes ago, snywx said: 12-18” looking more and more likely for us up here you always win!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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