Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[SACRUS]

 

EURO AI AI FS

Total QPF

[EastonSN+]

What a huge shift north on the AIGFS 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Is that a full phase on the euro?

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro looks like its going to be a big hit. Also comes in earlier

Euro has snow from Sunday morning  through Tuesday. Heavy snow Sunday Night and then Monday afternoon from a coastal. Still going at 144.

[SACRUS]

 

18Z Euro Total QPF through 144 with seemingly more to come

 

[Snowlover11]

Euro was about to cook!

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

18Z GEFS Total QPF mean

 

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/20 18Z Total QPF

ICON: (120H)  in line with 12z
GFS: 0.3 - 0.4
GFS AID: 0.5 - 0.6
GEFS: 0.6 
Euro AI AIFS:  0.6 - 0.7
Euro : 0.9 - 1.1(+) through and more to come (144H)

 

Updated good suite of forecasts for those enjoying the snowier outcome

[SnoSki14]

Ceiling is quite high if we can get western energy to fully phase in. 

I think even if we don't we're probably looking at a 4-8" type system at minimum 

[SACRUS]

 

Inching North with the 0.5 line

 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

18Z GEFS Total QPF mean

 

That's 12z I believe 

[SACRUS]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

That's 12z I believe 

I had the same issue and did a forced refresh  it is a bit higher o.7

[SnoSki14]

Just now, SACRUS said:

I had the same issue and did a forced refresh  it is a bit higher o.7

Ok I see it now

[LVblizzard]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ceiling is quite high if we can get western energy to fully phase in. 

I think even if we don't we're probably looking at a 4-8" type system at minimum 

The 12z Euro only did a partial phase and still pulled off a MECS. The only thing we can’t have is those two pieces staying entirely separate. Literally any interaction and we get at least a SECS.

[MJO812]

Still snowing 

[Franklin0529]

Setting our goalpost. Gfs about as low as we probably go. Euro highest 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Setting our goalpost. Gfs about as low as we probably go. Euro highest 

NYC and surrounding areas would most likely see over 20 inches passed 144.

[Nibor]

At h5 we’re not too far off from some pretty big solutions. 

[cleetussnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NYC and surrounding areas would most likely see over 20 inches passed 144.

Kuchie though, and snow map 5 days out so grain of salt, salt mines worth of grains of salt.  

[brooklynwx99]

EPS made the same shift towards more phasing and now has 0.75" liquid to NYC

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

Agree.  The pictured event took place with temperatures between 28 and 30.  It caused widespread power outages 

https://www.northshorewx.com/19780113.html

[kat5hurricane]

There's a pretty high floor with this system because it's so large with tons of moisture and very cold air but the question is the phasing which would create a much higher ceiling. This doesn't feel like a thread the needle situation that we usually see in these parts with an all or nothing scenario.

[BoulderWX]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Still snowing 

Can you post the non kuchera version. Or just QPF? 

[brooklynwx99]

this is all you need to see. trend has been ongoing for two days now

[BoulderWX]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS made the same shift towards more phasing and now has 0.75" liquid to NYC

.75 with favorable ratios would be great. I’m not buying the kuchera maps showing over 20:1 ratios but to each their own!

[NorthShoreWx]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

just when i thought i was the worst poster on here i met krs4lfe

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

.75 with favorable ratios would be great. I’m not buying the kuchera maps showing over 20:1 ratios but to each their own!

Probably 13-14:1 at best. Ratios aren't about surface temperatures.  

[BoulderWX]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Probably 13-14:1 at best. Ratios aren't about surface temperatures.  

100% agree - not even worth worrying about. I’m just looking at QPF - easier for forecasting and consistency. 

[North and West]

GFS made a big move north.  Wagons North.  Trends aligning favorable
 

to my house!



.

[snowman19]

A cutter with a 1050mb Siberian High and unmodified arctic air/confluence pressing down?! Lmfaooo I’ve seen it all now. The threat is suppression, not cut, not even close