1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Scottie16]

[mention=1249]Math/Met[/mention]is the legit expert on mountain wave events.  Any time I read MRX talking about mountain waves...I am like, I recognize this verbiage!  Something to think about.  Not saying those dots connect.  Not saying they don't.  I think he is from that area as well.  Guru on this and interesting.
The wind can be howling in Camp Creek...and barely a breeze here.  That weather station there was built to collect mountain wave data.  One year, the wave was so strong...it knocked over the tower anemometer.  They get like 80mph gusts with high end stuff.  [mention=16126]Holston_River_Rambler[/mention]you are correct that the river valleys are a component of this...but I couldn't explain it in 5 pages.  [mention=2527]Reb[/mention]back to our normally scheduled programming of ice, heartbreak, and 8-9 day storm discussions.  Haha!
Here are some sources.  If one of you all wants to start a thread on it, I would be more than happy to participate.  It pretty fun to track.  One day, I am going up there to see the MWE for myself.  Interestingly, this weekend's setup is ideal for mountain wave events - cold air damming on the east slopes, slp cutting from MS through TN.  
https://www.weather.gov/mrx/arealextent

Also, weaker cold-air damming on the eastern side of the southern Appalachian Mountains appeared to allow warning-level winds at the Coker Creek and Shady Valley sites, with the weakest cold-air damming observed during the warning-level wind dates at Shady Valley.

https://www.weather.gov/mrx/mtnwavewinds

The composite maps of surface isobars (Figure 19) revealed a low pressure system over the mid-Mississippi River Valley (northwest of the southern Appalachian Mountains) with an area of high pressure centered off the mid-Atlantic coast during both warning-level and advisory-level wind events. A deeper low pressure area was observed with the warning-level wind events (compared to the advisory-level events), which resulted in a stronger pressure gradient across the southern Appalachian Mountains. In both the warning-level and advisory-level composite maps, the surface temperatures revealed that cold air damming was occurring across the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains. This cold air damming was a little stronger with the advisory-level events (compared to the warning-level events), while warmer temperatures were further north on the western side of the southern Appalachian Mountains with the warning-level events. The combination of a weaker low pressure system over the mid-Mississippi River Valley and stronger cold air damming (a blocked boundary layer) on the eastern side (upwind) of the southern Appalachian Mountains likely caused the wind flow below 700 hPa to be weaker during the advisory-level events.

 

Ready for you to see the GFS!


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[fountainguy97]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Math/Metis the legit expert on mountain wave events.  Any time I read MRX talking about mountain waves...I am like, I recognize this verbiage!  Something to think about.  Not saying those dots connect.  Not saying they don't.  I think he is from that area as well.  Guru on this and interesting.

The wind can be howling in Camp Creek...and barely a breeze here.  That weather station there was built to collect mountain wave data.  One year, the wave was so strong...it knocked over the tower anemometer.  They get like 80mph gusts with high end stuff.  @Holston_River_Rambleryou are correct that the river valleys are a component of this...but I couldn't explain it in 5 pages.  @Rebback to our normally scheduled programming of ice, heartbreak, and 8-9 day storm discussions.  Haha!

Here are some sources.  If one of you all wants to start a thread on it, I would be more than happy to participate.  It pretty fun to track.  One day, I am going up there to see the MWE for myself.  Interestingly, this weekend's setup is ideal for mountain wave events - cold air damming on the east slopes, slp cutting from MS through TN.  

https://www.weather.gov/mrx/arealextent

Also, weaker cold-air damming on the eastern side of the southern Appalachian Mountains appeared to allow warning-level winds at the Coker Creek and Shady Valley sites, with the weakest cold-air damming observed during the warning-level wind dates at Shady Valley.

https://www.weather.gov/mrx/mtnwavewinds

The composite maps of surface isobars (Figure 19) revealed a low pressure system over the mid-Mississippi River Valley (northwest of the southern Appalachian Mountains) with an area of high pressure centered off the mid-Atlantic coast during both warning-level and advisory-level wind events. A deeper low pressure area was observed with the warning-level wind events (compared to the advisory-level events), which resulted in a stronger pressure gradient across the southern Appalachian Mountains. In both the warning-level and advisory-level composite maps, the surface temperatures revealed that cold air damming was occurring across the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains. This cold air damming was a little stronger with the advisory-level events (compared to the warning-level events), while warmer temperatures were further north on the western side of the southern Appalachian Mountains with the warning-level events. The combination of a weaker low pressure system over the mid-Mississippi River Valley and stronger cold air damming (a blocked boundary layer) on the eastern side (upwind) of the southern Appalachian Mountains likely caused the wind flow below 700 hPa to be weaker during the advisory-level events.

 

Back in January 2024 I chased a MWE in camp creek. Sustained 70+ mph haha was pretty fun! 

[Mrwolf1972]

Maybe the info from the Baja low is finally updating the models

[Tucker1027]

If the EURO follows or trends cooler then it will start getting blasted all over media…


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[Bigbald]

Gfs comes out one last time to bait us once more

[WishingForWarmWeather]

48 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The graphic MRX released has my general area snowing for 12 hours Saturday, 6 light and 6 moderate snow. Then wintry mix of sleet for 6 hours, then 3 hours of freezing rain, 6 hours of rain, back to 3 hours of mix and 6 hours of moderate snow to finish. 

Can you show me? I’m pretty close to you. 

[Carvers Gap]

Paging @TellicoWx...the 18z GFS says, "There ya go."  Inland runner.  

Man, if it wasn't the GFS I would be excited.  But...I have seen it pull off a stunner at this range...just enough not to ignore it.  I mean we have seen that energy get right to the far edge of the eastern valley and run west of the Apps.  We have seen Apps runners.  So, it makes sense to have a solution or two with runs east of the Apps....I have NO IDEA if that run is right.  However, we have been seeing baby steps today which are south of some modeling - not all.

[Mrwolf1972]

[Matthew70]

And the national weather service just updated around Nashville to get an inch of snow at most.

[GBOVolz]

What is….”bring us some good luck for 500 Alex”








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[Carvers Gap]

Just one more lap, GFS!  You can do it!!!  So is this a headfake of a headfake...kind of like a double reverse.  If it flips back north, this is like a double reverse w/ a halfback pass???

[Carvers Gap]

12 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Ready for you to see the GFS!


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Maybe we need to talk about mountain waves more often.  The GFS got bored and was like, "Ok. Ok. Here ya go.  Just please don't make me look at another wind map from Carvers Gap."

[AMZ8990]

For what it’s worth, The GFS was right with our winter storm back in January 2024.  The Euro however was not on board until late in the game.  Just food for thought 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, AMZ8990 said:

For what it’s worth, The GFS was right with our winter storm back in January 2024.  The Euro however was not on board until late in the game.  Just food for thought 

Yeppers.  Yeppers.  @Met1985said the GFS did ok w/ a recent snow event in W NC that the Euro didn't even have I don't think.  I think the Euro has better physics, and I will need it on board.  But...there have been trends southward today.  Also, models are cooling off the earlier part of the run....tells me there is still some adjusting occurring.  Eventually, that adjusting gets here.  Maybe it is hurricane hunter data.  Might be a one off run.  But other models are only about 50-100 miles of going east of the Apps at times.

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeppers.  Yeppers.  @Met1985said the GFS did ok w/ a recent snow event in W NC that the Euro didn't even have I don't think.  I think the Euro has better physics, and I will need it on board.  But...there have been trends southward today.  Also, models are cooling off the earlier part of the run....tells me there is still some adjusting occurring.  Eventually, that adjusting gets here.  Maybe it is hurricane hunter data.  Might be a one off run.  But other models are only about 50-100 miles of going east of the Apps at times.

Yeah a couple of weeks ago when  we had a cold front come through the gfs picked up some flow snow way before the Euro.

[Weatheriscool]

12 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

And the national weather service just updated around Nashville to get an inch of snow at most.

Yes, I am north of Nashville and now only have a 30% chance of 6" or more; my question is, if they suspect less snow, why isnt the area in a Ice Storm Warning then? 

[BNAwx]

[Scottie16]

Just one more lap, GFS!  You can do it!!!  So is this a headfake of a headfake...kind of like a double reverse.  If it flips back north, this is like a double reverse w/ a halfback pass???

Or like the basketball team to start the season until now……. I’ll see myself out


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[Tucker1027]

NWS seems to lag behind... they also aren't going to jump to the highest totals. they prefer to increase totals inch by inch. 

[Mrwolf1972]

Gefs 18z still had warm nose but not 40s

[GBOVolz]

I can’t believe we’re doing this…


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[TellicoWx]

18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Paging @TellicoWx...the 18z GFS says, "There ya go."  Inland runner.  

Man, if it wasn't the GFS I would be excited.  But...I have seen it pull off a stunner at this range...just enough not to ignore it.  I mean we have seen that energy get right to the far edge of the eastern valley and run west of the Apps.  We have seen Apps runners.  So, it makes sense to have a solution or two with runs east of the Apps....I have NO IDEA if that run is right.  However, we have been seeing baby steps today which are south of some modeling - not all.

If that's final solution..then they will need the Guard...large power loss, followed by the snow and cold. Governor issued State of Emergency while ago for all Tennessee.

[Tucker1027]

got this from Southernwx 

ICON 18z Ice totals 

[tnweathernut]

7 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

Yes, I am north of Nashville and now only have a 30% chance of 6" or more; my question is, if they suspect less snow, why isnt the area in a Ice Storm Warning then? 

That's a good question.  Temps are supposed to be in the teens and low 20's for a long duration.

[Mrwolf1972]

Aigfs still not buying it warm nose to west Virginia in the 40s

[Mrwolf1972]

Ukie same not buying the new gfs model it's got rain and 40s at end of its run. 

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

I can’t believe we’re doing this…


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I am expecting ice.  Anything else is bonus!  But right....the GFS is gonna need some company.  It is just a conspiracy to make us all stay up late again?  About one mile into my run each of the last two days, I am asking myself why I am so tired.  

[WishingForWarmWeather]

21 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

Yes, I am north of Nashville and now only have a 30% chance of 6" or more; my question is, if they suspect less snow, why isnt the area in a Ice Storm Warning then? 

This. Also north of Nashville and we seem to be in this void of information.

[*Flash*]

36 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

And the national weather service just updated around Nashville to get an inch of snow at most.

Source? That doesn't align with the Winter Storm Warning language for Davidson County. 

[Matthew70]

24 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

Yes, I am north of Nashville and now only have a 30% chance of 6" or more; my question is, if they suspect less snow, why isnt the area in a Ice Storm Warning then? 

I’m assuming because it’s gonna be mostly sleet and I’m not sure if sleet is included in an ice storm warning?