January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Weather Will]

WB EURO AI EPS

[EHoffman]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB EURO AI EPS

That's actually fucking insane.

[Ji]

That's really perfection. Let's lock that in now lol.
All the ensembles should calm the nerves a little
 

Psssst the euro op had more snow than the ensembles

[Ji]

This definitely trended north

[T. August]

0z EPS probability of >6” snowfall

[MDstorm]

From the weather weenie handbook:

The op Euro has been known to over amp phased systems in the midrange.  

[Miss Pixee]

3 hours ago, MDsnowPRO said:

The reactive emotional roller coaster some weenies ride is completely nauseating 

Doesn't make a lot of sense either. There's never been a large storm in my neck of the woods without some sleet that I can recall. Nothing new or unprecedented...people just stare at too many models every five minutes and convince themselves of a final solution.

It's like saying "I want 23 inches not 18 just because." Either amount is crushing. What's the difference at that point?

[DDweatherman]

ICON at 6z joins the more amped camp, out thru 102 with heavies over most of the sub and a low down in the south. It’s going to be a huge hit, but will review uppers. Phase occurring a lot fair west earlier/cleaner than prior runs.

[DDweatherman]

7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

ICON at 6z joins the more amped camp, out thru 102 with heavies over most of the sub and a low down in the south. It’s going to be a huge hit, but will review uppers. Phase occurring a lot fair west earlier/cleaner than prior runs.

Good thump for most of the sub, 8-12” before the lowlanders SE of 95 would have mixing issues. Transfers to a low off VA near the end of the run, but cuts off for most at hour 120. Not at the computer for nice graphics, trying to log into wxmodels site to paste a total QPF/snow, but hasn’t loaded there yet.

[Terpeast]

I see we’ve had a north trend where we flirt with mixing or do mix before the storm ends.

I knew it. But still a good front ender. 

[TSSN+]

One thing to see that wild. Almost every member shows over 10”. 
 

[Jebman]

Models will be thrashing this out for the next 3-4 days. At times it will seem like we might get a lot of sleet, but I am sure that by Friday night or Saturday we will have a major snowstorm over the entire sub.

Let's reel this one in.

[TSSN+]

GFS avoids the phase and is a flush hit across the area. 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

GFS avoids the phase and is a flush hit across the area. 

Mix only makes it to lower southern md

[WVclimo]

The 6Z GFS is beautiful.  All snow for the area.  Sleet line barely makes it as far north as Fredericksburg and the lower eastern shore.

[Terpeast]

Now I find myself rooting for the GFS. How things have changed in 24 hours. Perhaps this is the "model reshuffle" I've been talking about for days. Hopefully the recon flights get us new data and things tick back south a bit. We don't want this thing phasing too fast too soon.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I’m not even gonna be mad if we have to sacrifice some qpf to the sleet gods to get the euro solution.  That’s juiced up overrunning on steroids! 15 inches and then a little sleet is ok with me. Of course if we keep trending this way and drive that primary even further north our snow can become more short lived but hopefully we have approached the limit of the amped trending and perhaps trend back a little colder. 

[SoCoWx]

We may end up with the best of both worlds: more snow overrunning with the boundary setting up further north and with the low moving further north heavier QPF from the low. As an added bonus, a more amped solution lessens the threat of an ice storm in the Deep South.

But seems to be significantly raising the threat of ice in Richmond, and we don’t want that ish either. Not after ice took out our water infrastructure last year.


.

[Jebman]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Now I find myself rooting for the GFS. How things have changed in 24 hours. Perhaps this is the "model reshuffle" I've been talking about for days. Hopefully the recon flights get us new data and things tick back south a bit. We don't want this thing phasing too fast too soon.

Once all the players get onto the CONUS and we get some data sampling, things will get right back on track.

[Terpeast]

700 mb temps is the level we want to watch for any sleet. BL temps, as depicted right now, are very cold so freezing rain will be minimal.

Warmest panel on GFS:

 

Warmest panel on Euro:

 

Warmest panel on CMC - no sounding, but looks like 0-1 degrees C on the sounding over DCA.

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Good reminder that even the best experts essentially have no idea how these things trend until they start trending.  48 hours ago everyone was sweating suppression and the strength of the arctic high and worried about another southeast snowstorm.  Now we’re praying for the amping to stop.  

[snowfan]

Hawt panel on the gfs. Dendrite bomb hopefully for wherever the predominant snow band sets up. 
 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS is a hold, even slight tick south.  Coastal low is main low, not amped solution with a primary going into WV.

[DDweatherman]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS is a hold, even slight tick south.  Coastal low is main low, not amped solution with a primary going into WV.

Will, is the QPF map through the entirety? I’m thinking its hard for places to get 6” of snow off 10:1 ratios with .48 qpf…

[Solution Man]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS is a hold, even slight tick south.  Coastal low is main low, not amped solution with a primary going into WV.

I like it this time of morning no legs jumpers, no big predictors, just a nice cool and smooth outlook. Good job, brother.

[LeesburgWx]

6z GFS is a beaut. Looks like the bleeding may have stopped. Still so long way to go. Today is an important day for model runs

[Solution Man]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

6z GFS is a beaut. Looks like the bleeding may have stopped. Still so long way to go. Today is an important day for model runs

We got a few winners in the column this morning. I found the solutions late last night hard to believe where it had a cutter into a 1043 high. A more reasonable look with a costal transfer will be realized today.

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Will, is the QPF map through the entirety? I’m thinking its hard for places to get 6” of snow off 10:1 ratios with .48 qpf…

No he didn’t go out far enough. Still .75” up into the pa line. 
 

[mitchnick]

49 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Now I find myself rooting for the GFS. How things have changed in 24 hours. Perhaps this is the "model reshuffle" I've been talking about for days. Hopefully the recon flights get us new data and things tick back south a bit. We don't want this thing phasing too fast too soon.

You never want to jump in bed with satan!