January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Jrlg1181]

17 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Power is overrated, there is a reason they make batteries. 

Or old school "coal oil" lamps always loved that smell when the power went out as a kid down here in the hills , especially in winter..

[Weather Will]

WB EURO AI EPS

[EHoffman]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB EURO AI EPS

That's actually fucking insane.

[TowsonWeather]

Just now, gunny23 said:

Don't say that...we were planning to come home from Davis Sat night to catch the snow here.  I've already stocked firewood and i am ready for ripping snow during the AFCCG.  

I could adjust and ride it out up there but we have elderly neighbors here we take of during snow.  

Ugh.  Decisions decisions

[Ji]

That's really perfection. Let's lock that in now lol.
All the ensembles should calm the nerves a little
 

Psssst the euro op had more snow than the ensembles

[Ji]

This definitely trended north

[T. August]

0z EPS probability of >6” snowfall

[MDstorm]

From the weather weenie handbook:

The op Euro has been known to over amp phased systems in the midrange.  

[Nomz]

17 hours ago, Nomz said:

I’d like for models to work their way a little north today but I’m just feeling greedy. I’ll take the 1 inch qpf in DC at 10:1+ ratios

...fuck

[Steve25]

3 minutes ago, Nomz said:

...fuck

Does it ever drive you crazy

Just how fast the night changes?

[Miss Pixee]

3 hours ago, MDsnowPRO said:

The reactive emotional roller coaster some weenies ride is completely nauseating 

Doesn't make a lot of sense either. There's never been a large storm in my neck of the woods without some sleet that I can recall. Nothing new or unprecedented...people just stare at too many models every five minutes and convince themselves of a final solution.

It's like saying "I want 23 inches not 18 just because." Either amount is crushing. What's the difference at that point?

[DDweatherman]

ICON at 6z joins the more amped camp, out thru 102 with heavies over most of the sub and a low down in the south. It’s going to be a huge hit, but will review uppers. Phase occurring a lot fair west earlier/cleaner than prior runs.

[DDweatherman]

7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

ICON at 6z joins the more amped camp, out thru 102 with heavies over most of the sub and a low down in the south. It’s going to be a huge hit, but will review uppers. Phase occurring a lot fair west earlier/cleaner than prior runs.

Good thump for most of the sub, 8-12” before the lowlanders SE of 95 would have mixing issues. Transfers to a low off VA near the end of the run, but cuts off for most at hour 120. Not at the computer for nice graphics, trying to log into wxmodels site to paste a total QPF/snow, but hasn’t loaded there yet.

[TSSN+]

Eric Webb getting served crow via 0z models. 

[Terpeast]

I see we’ve had a north trend where we flirt with mixing or do mix before the storm ends.

I knew it. But still a good front ender. 

[TSSN+]

One thing to see that wild. Almost every member shows over 10”. 
 

[Jebman]

Models will be thrashing this out for the next 3-4 days. At times it will seem like we might get a lot of sleet, but I am sure that by Friday night or Saturday we will have a major snowstorm over the entire sub.

Let's reel this one in.

[aldie 22]

I always check how many pages were added when I wake up. I knew after reading all of the banter by the time the gfs was done that something went sideways with the CMC and Euro. Hoping the trend stops this afternoon...glad I moved though. 

[TSSN+]

GFS avoids the phase and is a flush hit across the area. 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

GFS avoids the phase and is a flush hit across the area. 

Mix only makes it to lower southern md

[WVclimo]

The 6Z GFS is beautiful.  All snow for the area.  Sleet line barely makes it as far north as Fredericksburg and the lower eastern shore.

[Terpeast]

Now I find myself rooting for the GFS. How things have changed in 24 hours. Perhaps this is the "model reshuffle" I've been talking about for days. Hopefully the recon flights get us new data and things tick back south a bit. We don't want this thing phasing too fast too soon.