January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[bncho]

Okay, this Euro run we want the same amount of Baja interaction IMO. No more, no less.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO AI looks great.

kept temps in teens for entire storm

[baltosquid]

Actually that stronger low MSLP signature in WV is annoying on the Euro AI.

 

Edit: I don't think this is cause for panic at this point, just want to see this stay in TN.

[stormtracker]

Remarkably similar so far..but super early

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Actually that stronger low MSLP signature in WV is annoying on the Euro AI.

 

Edit: I don't think this is cause for panic at this point, just want to see this stay in TN.

I saw it; but it runs into the strong high and jumps to the coast. WB 0Z EUR0 AI

[stormtracker]

Status quo...just carbon copy so far

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Status quo...just carbon copy so far

To 18z I assume? And at what hour? 

[baltosquid]

Based on 700mb, Euro AI would mix south and east of a line drawn from around ocean city to south central VA after some time. But I think there should be a really good opening act as depicted, regardless.

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I saw it; but it runs into the strong high and jumps to the coast. WB 0Z EUR0 AI

This makes more sense in a physics sense and the post by Tripol has a lot of merit. This is not a pattern where a low can drive hard to western PA and should in theory struggle to get to WV. This should be more of a primary to transfer from eastern TN/KY to off the Carolina coast. That’s what the AIFS is showing and makes more sense synoptically. 

[Solution Man]

Euro will spit out 14.9 at 10-1 my prediction. I like that number

[Chris78]

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro AI slight shift north, but absolutely ZERO worries mixing!

Do you have the kuchie lol?

[LVblizzard]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I saw it; but it runs into the strong high and jumps to the coast. WB 0Z EUR0 AI

Yeah this is exactly how a low should act when it encounters a strong arctic high…not plow into it like the UKMET does.

[Nomz]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Euro will spit out 14.9 at 10-1 my prediction. I like that number

I'll say 10.3956 for DC

[Amped]

4 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Actually that stronger low MSLP signature in WV is annoying on the Euro AI.

 

Edit: I don't think this is cause for panic at this point, just want to see this stay in TN.

Its going to move into WV because there's mountains there. Just hope it's weak. A 1012mb low will easily be dominated by the cad and the coastal.

[stormtracker]

Noticing some bulging back toward the SSW more with that northern piece of energy coming down from the north over MT/ID more so than 18z

[Solution Man]

How we looking @stormtracker

[bncho]

Euro might be a little bit more amped

[Albedoman]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Nice triple point sig

hey Ralph, its meetimg my criteria of a 1035 High  at 1037 with the LP off the carolina coast heading for the benchmark.  Winner winner chicken dinner.

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Noticing some bulging back toward the SSW more with that northern piece of energy coming down from the north over MT/ID more so than 18z

What hour

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

To 18z I assume? And at what hour? 

yes.  Some changes show up at 60.   Out west may be a bit more....ampd

[stormtracker]

0z

18z

 

[bncho]

um

[andyhb]

Just now, stormtracker said:

0z

12z

That is the same picture.

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

0z

12z

Same map twice 

[stormtracker]

`18z

 

[Ji]

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Same map twice 

Fixed

[bncho]

2 hours ago, bncho said:

Jeez, guys. Keep it together. Stop posting incorrect maps. I, for one, would never do that. 

@stormtracker No double maps either.

[Ji]

its more amped but not like the Canadian. May not be a bad run

[bncho]

Phasing is much cleaner for the Baja...