January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[USCG RS]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Cold isn’t the main question, it’s whether there’s enough precip to cause big issues

I would argue its both. As others have mentioned even with very light qpf, which is undermodeled many times, its still accruing. 

[Blacksburg Coach]

when will we set up an observation thread?

[Tony Sisk]

14 minutes ago, cpg2 said:

Whenever there’s any kind of weather event for the Upstate, I listen to Chris Justus and Brad Panovich, then come here for the discussion and map analysis. Those two have been pretty much in agreement on this one. I also really like Kendra Kent—she’s been a bit more reserved, which I appreciate—but all three are essentially saying the same thing:

This is a major storm for the Upstate and WNC, and they’re very confident it will at least be disruptive, with a strong possibility of it being destructive and dangerous. That’s really all I need to know. Exact totals and p-type swings matter less when there’s this level of agreement that the event itself is a serious concern. Stay safe and warm everyone!

I like Kendra Kent a lot. She is the voice of reason.

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

when will we set up an observation thread?

 

[Tony Sisk]

29 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I’m just gonna stick with what GSP NWS is predicting for this area. They are very good at what they do. 

They have a new update tonight

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=SCZ106&warncounty=SCC045&firewxzone=SCZ106&local_place1=Taylors SC&product1=Ice+Storm+Warning&lat=34.9297&lon=-82.3113

[PackGrad05]

I know that a difference of a tenth of an inch could make things worse or better, but we are really splitting hairs at this point.
There will be power outages, treacherous roads, and super cold temperatures, especially early in the week.  

Folks should prepare for the high-end amounts (which I believe they have) and just hope it underperforms.
 

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

They have a new update tonight

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=SCZ106&warncounty=SCC045&firewxzone=SCZ106&local_place1=Taylors SC&product1=Ice+Storm+Warning&lat=34.9297&lon=-82.3113

They change anything?

[IceQueen706]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

They change anything?

It doesn't look like it.

[CaryWx]

19 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Have y’all been noticing this mid week morsel?

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[wxdawg10]

It's never been more difficult to be a met..for a variety of reasons. 

a wrong call could very well mean their livelyhood.  the finest of lines to walk.

So honestly i don't blame some of them for being defensive or putting out 10 different maps or waiting last minute.

On top of this storm just being extremely difficult to nail down.

local mets need a win. A storm where they say its gonna snow 10 inches and it snows 10 inches.  

[USCG RS]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2014898329558384816?s=20

 

 

[USCG RS]

 

RGEM is inside of its deadly range and is normally pretty good with temps and P Types. 

[btownheel]

 
RGEM is inside of its deadly range and is normally pretty good with temps and P Types. 

RGEM sees this like I do. If you are in climo favored CAD regions anywhere in NC or extreme upstate SC, not a drop of this falls as rain. I’ve been chuckling at the wishcast posts thinking it will. Look at Texas verification right now, look at the temps diving out of Ohio and that HP.


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[Coach McGuirk]

Currently 24.8 degrees, forecasted at 17 degrees this morning and 28 for a high.  I don't think we get below freezing this weekend storm.  I am thinking a bad ZR storm is setting up here. 

[gman]

3 hours ago, btownheel said:

RGEM sees this like I do. If you are in climo favored CAD regions anywhere in NC or extreme upstate SC, not a drop of this falls as rain. I’ve been chuckling at the wishcast posts thinking it will. Look at Texas verification right now, look at the temps diving out of Ohio and that HP.


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So, do you think the precipitation will be mostly sleet in the CAD regions, like upstate SC?

[mclean02]

6 hours ago, USCG RS said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2014898329558384816?s=20

 

 

It's not unheard of to get severe storm warnings for cells in winter storms. I recall it during the crazy Texas storms before.

[CentralNC]

Love this blurb from RAH disco.  I have said all along that sleet is going to save my area from crushing ZR.  Of course not too far from me it's going to be lights out.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
457 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 400 AM Saturday...

* There will probably be a corridor of more sleet accumulation at
  the expense of freezing rain accrual than currently forecast,
  probably over a portion of the nw Piedmont. This probability is
  not explicitly forecast at this time; and it may not be until the
  nowcasting phase, when observational trends indicate when and
  where it may occur.

* No notable changes have otherwise been made to the ongoing
  forecast.

[Upstate Tiger]

1 hour ago, mclean02 said:

It's not unheard of to get severe storm warnings for cells in winter storms. I recall it during the crazy Texas storms before.

I remember that happening in the upstate in the late 70s

[Coach McGuirk]

Looking like the arctic high is winning right now.  Maybe it goes south?

[btownheel]

I remember that happening in the upstate in the late 70s

TBH, if that cold does push in and lock up I’d love to experience a severe thunder sleet storm.


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[Spidyr2k]

I'm hoping this thing performs as well as last weeks kerfuffle:

[gman]

Locals Mets on WYFF are saying the latest models bring good news of much less precipitation, more sleet than freezing rain and then just rain before it ends. They now have us with 0.46” of ice, with that being more sleet than freezing rain. I pray that trend continues. 

[lilj4425]

15 minutes ago, gman said:

Locals Mets on WYFF are saying the latest models bring good news of much less precipitation, more sleet than freezing rain and then just rain before it ends. They now have us with 0.46” of ice, with that being more sleet than freezing rain. I pray that trend continues. 

GSP NWS thinks different: 

[UpstateSCBud]

18 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

GSP NWS thinks different: 

As do I. Unfortunately I think NWS is closer. WYFF saying it’s gonna change to rain towards the end of the event but I don’t see that happening in the upstate 

[Snowberd]

As do I. Unfortunately I think NWS is closer. WYFF saying it’s gonna change to rain towards the end of the event but I don’t see that happening in the upstate 

The NWS actually mentions both scenarios. In other words they have no idea lol

Intense isentropic lift atop the cold dome combined with anomalously
moist air (PWATs of about 1"...in ~the 90th percentile of daily
climatology)...followed by strong/focused ascent along a frontal
boundary Sunday afternoon/evening will result in impressive storm
total liquid equivalent precip...with 2-3 inches forecast across
the mountains of southwest NC, SC, and northeast GA, and generally
1.5-2" elsewhere. Strong warm advection aloft will establish a
warm nose that will eventually (a) support a transition from sleet
to freezing rain from SW=>NE and ( allow for the valleys of far
southwest NC...which will only be weakly affected by CAD...to warm
above freezing. The first main forecast challenge is timing the
transition to freezing rain. Forecast soundings become quite warm
(+5C or more) aloft rather quickly tonight, suggesting a quick
transition to FZRA. However, the cold layer at the surface is cold
and deep enough to perhaps allow for some refreezing of hydrometeors
before they hit the surface. However, this is far from a given...and
it lends modest confidence to our ice/sleet accum forecast going
forward. Nevertheless, most of the precip is expected to fall as
freezing rain such that much of the CWA is expected to see storm
total ice accums of 0.5-0.75." An exception on the higher end
(0.75-1.0" with locally higher amounts) is forecast along the Blue
Ridge escarpment...where the greatest alignment of persistent cold
air and higher liquid equivalent is forecast. These amounts are
expected to extend across the foothills of SC into the Greenville
metro area as well. Widespread downed trees/lines and power outages
are expected to be most concentrated in this area.

On the lower end, a gradual transition to rain is expected
along the southern and western periphery of the CWA during Sunday
afternoon due to the synoptic pattern quickly becoming unfavorable
for maintenance of cold air damming. This will occur as the upper
flow pattern becomes phased...with a long wave trough being carved
out over the eastern Conus and an upper ridge quickly building
off the East Coast, resulting in cessation of confluent flow and
allowing the weakening parent high to move far north into Quebec
and become detached from the inverted ridge CAD ridge. The wind
field responding to a developing coastal low will provide an
additional erosion mechanism. As such, ice totals across the SC
Lakelands and vicinity are expected to be in the 0.25-0.5" range,
while the valleys beneath the Smokies may struggle to reach 0.25."

In summation: forecast ice totals could be too low by 0.1-0.25"
if the transition from sleet->freezing rain occurs significantly
earlier than currently anticipated. Forecast totals could be too
high along and south of the I-85 corridor if CAD erosion is more
aggressive than currently forecast. Finally, locally excessive
rainfall will be possible across mountainous areas where the
transition to rain occurs Sunday afternoon...with the strong frontal
band (where an isolated elevated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out)
likely providing the tipping point to some minor runoff issues
developing late afternoon/evening.


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