Brick Tamland Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3k NAM through hour 60. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 It’s just so far off what everything else is showing for central NC, I really don’t get it. Like 0 freezing rain for places all other models show an inch or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blacksburg Coach Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 35 minutes ago, suzook said: Bunch of amateurs you are! I used to live in the North...Now that's constant back and forth and stress November through March. I don't miss it. I'm a Dolphins fan I've become numb to disappointment 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said: It’s just so far off what everything else is showing for central NC, I really don’t get it. Like 0 freezing rain for places all other models show an inch or more. Its the NAM. Honestly, we probably should be looking at the HRRR. But to be honest, this CAD is a bitch to figure out. It will be a nowcasting type of deal. Unfortunately lots of people will end up with a lot of ice. Where? Stay tuned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said: I'm a Dolphins fan I've become numb to disappointment Well, I am a cowboys fan...yes I said it. I feel your pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Praying for NAM to be right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, suzook said: Well, I am a cowboys fan...yes I said it. I feel your pain. Im a Bills fan! You want to talk about disappointment? We apparently live for it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Im a Bills fan! You want to talk about disappointment? We apparently live for it I’m a Packers fan. We can hug and cry together. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo! Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 Sorry guys I ruined the storm, just had to leave voicemail for surgeon. Took a nap and woke up to a 101.5 fever. . 2 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Raleigh disco out https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Been sunny in Greenville for the last hour. Makes me wonder if the high pressure is even stronger than expected, pushing the sleet line further south? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 12 minutes ago, suzook said: Its the NAM. Honestly, we probably should be looking at the HRRR. But to be honest, this CAD is a bitch to figure out. It will be a nowcasting type of deal. Unfortunately lots of people will end up with a lot of ice. Where? Stay tuned. NAM verbatim looks like a lot of IP in CLT/SC upstate w intermittent freezing drizzle between the IP showers.....looks to be some sort of upper level dynamics/instability on the southern end of the wedge- you can see the showery nature early and then how it fills in around CLT. Not that it will snow (not happening with the warm nose)- but we have all seen that similar signature with a trailing ULL on sliders around the southern part of the wedge The latest NAM is the first run out of the last few days where I have actually seen something plausible given the setup based on previous real world outcomes in our region Apparently followed by a ZR squall line to end it= also somewhat suspect.....normally these end with a period of light snow with the wind veering a couple clicks east of due north, even in the NC piedmont/SC Upstate as the arctic front squeezes every last bit of moisture out Then downsloping cuts everything off as everything shifts a couple clicks west of due north, and the settles somewhere between 270 and 320 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 25 minutes ago, DTP said: NAM verbatim looks like a lot of IP in CLT/SC upstate w intermittent freezing drizzle between the IP showers.....looks to be some sort of upper level dynamics/instability on the southern end of the wedge- you can see the showery nature early and then how it fills in around CLT. Not that it will snow (not happening with the warm nose)- but we have all seen that similar signature with a trailing ULL on sliders around the southern part of the wedge The latest NAM is the first run out of the last few days where I have actually seen something plausible given the setup based on previous real world outcomes in our region Apparently followed by a ZR squall line to end it= also somewhat suspect.....normally these end with a period of light snow with the wind veering a couple clicks east of due north, even in the NC piedmont/SC Upstate as the arctic front squeezes every last bit of moisture out Then downsloping cuts everything off as everything shifts a couple clicks west of due north, and the settles somewhere between 270 and 320 Different 850s entirely (we are not going to have snow out of this), but the radar signature on the latest NAM is very similar to the storm in 2004 that dropped 18-24" on snow in CLT/Rock Hill. We got 4" on the front end with that storm, then a dry slot, then everything filled right back in with the ULL in virtually the same location as what the NAM is currently depicting. Temps during the 2004 storm were 7-10 degrees warmer at the surface than this storm; however, the cold air from both storms was from CAD as well Like I said, different 850s......but same signature- this would be sleet, and lots of it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 GFS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Have a sleet map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 RAP looks to have more snow at the start for northern NC. Also has the precip coming in a whole lot sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 18 minutes ago, DTP said: Different 850s entirely (we are not going to have snow out of this), but the radar signature on the latest NAM is very similar to the storm in 2004 that dropped 18-24" on snow in CLT/Rock Hill. We got 4" on the front end with that storm, then a dry slot, then everything filled right back in with the ULL in virtually the same location as what the NAM is currently depicting. Temps during the 2004 storm were 7-10 degrees warmer at the surface than this storm; however, the cold air from both storms was from CAD as well Like I said, different 850s......but same signature- this would be sleet, and lots of it Agree with this. Think just north of ATL & points north and east from there up through Athens & Gainesville up 85 see a lot more sleet than freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 11 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: That’s ugly for the GSP metro area. Yikes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 RAP has snow here in Wake at 6:00 PM tomorrow night, while the others don't have precip here until after midnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, neatlburbwthrguy said: Agree with this. Think just north of ATL & points north and east from there up through Athens & Gainesville up 85 see a lot more sleet than freezing rain. Given the topo, placement of normal CAD/wind direction, the attendant high(s) (apparently the high is going to split), spotty/showery initial nature of the precip, plus DPs/temps- latest NAM finally looks to be picking some granularity .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 RAP has about 3 hours of snow for Wake before turning to sleet and then going back and forth with freezing rain and sleet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Certainly the quicker we can get precip into NC, the greater the snow chances will be. At the same time, the dew points will be so low Sat evening, its hard to imagine any precip actually making it to the surface. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 RAP 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: RAP has about 3 hours of snow for Wake before turning to sleet and then going back and forth with freezing rain and sleet. What rates are you looking at during that period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 The models at this point seem to be honing in on what's going to happen. Let's keep this in mind for next week's event. A different set up, but these southern storms are difficult to figure out more than a couple days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 RAP is hours of light ZR. That is how you add up accrual 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Late PM Check in: WTF knows what’s gonna happen later but if NC matches DFW, you guys are gonna have at least 6 or 7 hours of COLD RAIN as an appetizer. Since I last reported the temp has only dropped about 4* to lower 40s now. I know the cold air is coming but what a dreary day so far. We’ll see what happens next. The more knowledge guys on our TX thread are struggling to figure this thing out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Different set up in North Carolina. Arctic cold will already be in North Carolina when the system gets going. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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