January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[USCG RS]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Cold isn’t the main question, it’s whether there’s enough precip to cause big issues

I would argue its both. As others have mentioned even with very light qpf, which is undermodeled many times, its still accruing. 

[Blacksburg Coach]

when will we set up an observation thread?

[Tony Sisk]

14 minutes ago, cpg2 said:

Whenever there’s any kind of weather event for the Upstate, I listen to Chris Justus and Brad Panovich, then come here for the discussion and map analysis. Those two have been pretty much in agreement on this one. I also really like Kendra Kent—she’s been a bit more reserved, which I appreciate—but all three are essentially saying the same thing:

This is a major storm for the Upstate and WNC, and they’re very confident it will at least be disruptive, with a strong possibility of it being destructive and dangerous. That’s really all I need to know. Exact totals and p-type swings matter less when there’s this level of agreement that the event itself is a serious concern. Stay safe and warm everyone!

I like Kendra Kent a lot. She is the voice of reason.

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

when will we set up an observation thread?

 

[Tony Sisk]

29 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I’m just gonna stick with what GSP NWS is predicting for this area. They are very good at what they do. 

They have a new update tonight

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=SCZ106&warncounty=SCC045&firewxzone=SCZ106&local_place1=Taylors SC&product1=Ice+Storm+Warning&lat=34.9297&lon=-82.3113

[PackGrad05]

I know that a difference of a tenth of an inch could make things worse or better, but we are really splitting hairs at this point.
There will be power outages, treacherous roads, and super cold temperatures, especially early in the week.  

Folks should prepare for the high-end amounts (which I believe they have) and just hope it underperforms.
 

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

They have a new update tonight

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=SCZ106&warncounty=SCC045&firewxzone=SCZ106&local_place1=Taylors SC&product1=Ice+Storm+Warning&lat=34.9297&lon=-82.3113

They change anything?

[IceQueen706]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

They change anything?

It doesn't look like it.

[CaryWx]

19 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Have y’all been noticing this mid week morsel?

clip

[wxdawg10]

It's never been more difficult to be a met..for a variety of reasons. 

a wrong call could very well mean their livelyhood.  the finest of lines to walk.

So honestly i don't blame some of them for being defensive or putting out 10 different maps or waiting last minute.

On top of this storm just being extremely difficult to nail down.

local mets need a win. A storm where they say its gonna snow 10 inches and it snows 10 inches.  

[USCG RS]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2014898329558384816?s=20

 

 

[USCG RS]

 

RGEM is inside of its deadly range and is normally pretty good with temps and P Types. 

[btownheel]

 
RGEM is inside of its deadly range and is normally pretty good with temps and P Types. 

RGEM sees this like I do. If you are in climo favored CAD regions anywhere in NC or extreme upstate SC, not a drop of this falls as rain. I’ve been chuckling at the wishcast posts thinking it will. Look at Texas verification right now, look at the temps diving out of Ohio and that HP.


.

[Coach McGuirk]

Currently 24.8 degrees, forecasted at 17 degrees this morning and 28 for a high.  I don't think we get below freezing this weekend storm.  I am thinking a bad ZR storm is setting up here. 

[gman]

3 hours ago, btownheel said:

RGEM sees this like I do. If you are in climo favored CAD regions anywhere in NC or extreme upstate SC, not a drop of this falls as rain. I’ve been chuckling at the wishcast posts thinking it will. Look at Texas verification right now, look at the temps diving out of Ohio and that HP.


.

So, do you think the precipitation will be mostly sleet in the CAD regions, like upstate SC?

[mclean02]

6 hours ago, USCG RS said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2014898329558384816?s=20

 

 

It's not unheard of to get severe storm warnings for cells in winter storms. I recall it during the crazy Texas storms before.

[CentralNC]

Love this blurb from RAH disco.  I have said all along that sleet is going to save my area from crushing ZR.  Of course not too far from me it's going to be lights out.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
457 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 400 AM Saturday...

* There will probably be a corridor of more sleet accumulation at
  the expense of freezing rain accrual than currently forecast,
  probably over a portion of the nw Piedmont. This probability is
  not explicitly forecast at this time; and it may not be until the
  nowcasting phase, when observational trends indicate when and
  where it may occur.

* No notable changes have otherwise been made to the ongoing
  forecast.

[Upstate Tiger]

1 hour ago, mclean02 said:

It's not unheard of to get severe storm warnings for cells in winter storms. I recall it during the crazy Texas storms before.

I remember that happening in the upstate in the late 70s

[Coach McGuirk]

Looking like the arctic high is winning right now.  Maybe it goes south?

[btownheel]

I remember that happening in the upstate in the late 70s

TBH, if that cold does push in and lock up I’d love to experience a severe thunder sleet storm.


.

[Spidyr2k]

I'm hoping this thing performs as well as last weeks kerfuffle:

[gman]

Locals Mets on WYFF are saying the latest models bring good news of much less precipitation, more sleet than freezing rain and then just rain before it ends. They now have us with 0.46” of ice, with that being more sleet than freezing rain. I pray that trend continues.