January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[CaryWx]

11 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I just got back from our local Kroger. It’s like a damn war zone in there!

Yeah, all that pushing and shoving.

Hope you didn't hurt anybody

[WNC_Fort]

18z Euro? More of the same?

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

18z Euro? More of the same?

Yeah pretty much, at the surface anyway. Stronger CAD despite not really jumping south at all

[NC US Geological Survice]

38 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Here ya go

GFS to Charlotte and Raleigh: "F cities in particular"

[buckeyefan1]

2 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

18z Euro? More of the same?

Indeed

[Tyler Penland]

3 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

18z Euro? More of the same?

Pretty much. Slightly stronger with the wedge once again.

[NCSUGrad]

40 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

My wife went to get supplies from grocery store and came back with more wine and beer than a village could drink. Love her

"More than a village can drink"

Your username = NorthHillsWx
My address = North Hills

Perhaps we should explore your theory more closely. 

[PackGrad05]

Looks like the 18Z EURO is still struggling with depicting sleet, as Brad P mentioned in his vlog.  

[SUNYGRAD]

My local electric company is referring to the storm as "Winter Storm Fern."  for heads up on preparations. 

[NorthHillsWx]

24 minutes ago, NCSUGrad said:

"More than a village can drink"

Your username = NorthHillsWx
My address = North Hills

Perhaps we should explore your theory more closely. 

Come on, we can put it to the test! Drink till the lights go out, literally 

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Indeed

 Thanks for posting these. I’m really hoping the Euro freezing rain amounts will end up closer than the much wetter Icon and especially GFS. I’m extra concerned for loved ones in ATL and FAY. I’ve been giving them advice regarding preps for the worst case scenario just in case, but I’d of course love for nothing close to the worst case to happen.

 

 At 18Z ZR for ATL:

GFS 1.6” (that’s actually down some but still would be worst since ‘73)

Icon ~1.5” (also actually down some)

Euro 0.6” (partially due to less qpf)

UKMET nothing (not realistic unfortunately)

 So, even with GFS/Icon down some from 12Z, that’s still 2.5+ times as much as the Euro! 

[Brick Tamland]

How often so these extreme ice scenarios that the models are showing actually happen? I thought more often than not they end up being way overdone.

[PackGrad05]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

How often so these extreme ice scenarios that the models are showing actually happen? I thought more often than not they end up being way overdone.

This is true.  I personally cut them in half based on what I've experienced.  I think they get the "zone" right, but the amounts are overdone.

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

This is true.  I personally cut them in half based on what I've experienced.  I think they get the "zone" right, but the amounts are overdone.

This. If it says 1” I’d expect 0.50”. However, with the cold temps and light rates, it could be higher than normal in some cases

[SnowDawg]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This. If it says 1” I’d expect 0.50”. However, with the cold temps and light rates, it could be higher than normal in some cases

Yeah this was my thinking. Temps are usually a bit more borderline than this when we see ZR. Plus wind makes accrual more efficient. Could be more like 0.6 to 0.75 depending on localized conditions.

[NorthHillsWx]

7 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Yeah this was my thinking. Temps are usually a bit more borderline than this when we see ZR. Plus wind makes accrual more efficient. Could be more like 0.6 to 0.75 depending on localized conditions.

Yep and that’s in line with most predictions. Even conservative WRAL is going with 0.5-1” here in Raleigh which is pretty wild for them 

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Yep and that’s in line with most predictions. Even conservative WRAL is going with 0.5-1” here in Raleigh which is pretty wild for them 

Looks like they just go with whatever the Euro has 

[WiseWeather]

Whenever i get into an argument with my wife at this point im just going to look at her and say “WELL THATS WHAT WRAL SAID”. That should end the argument since WRAL is king.


.

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The last 1+” of that in ATL area on the 18Z GFS is plain cold rain. If that verifies, it would accelerate the melting after a very bad ZR hit.

ATL metro it all comes down to the surface feature and how strong it is/how far north it gets.  If its as shown on the 18Z Euro I don't think they end up in too bad a place because they'd have a 6 hour window 06-12Z to really drop a ton of FZRA and thats just typically hard to do.  If you rain at .15 an hour most runs off, if you rain at .07 an hour you may get a 1/2 inch of ice but if it goes to 48 degrees by 18z you melt it all off and limit the damage of future wind/time of it on trees and powerlines.  They need to basically be frozen all event.  Areas well NE of the metro that may occur but I am suspect on the metro itself doing that.