January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[olafminesaw]

33 minutes ago, gman said:

I don’t understand all the gloom and doom, especially after reading the latest GSP NWS weather discussion. Game still on. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GSP&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

For those of us about to hit 70 years old, we are running out of time and just want to see some white stuff. We are not selfish. It’s been over 1500 days since we have seen over an inch of snow in the Upstate. At this point in my life, I will shout for joy to watch an inch of snow and/or sleet falling. All that said, I am appreciative of the weather discussion. A huge part of the fun is the lead up to the big events, whether they happen or not. You guys make it fun. Thank you. 

Yeah I think it's just frustration at losing the once in a generation snowstorm potential. I find myself chasing the high of the "big one", that I experienced when I was a kid. But I know at the end of the day it will come ago and melt away and my life overall won't be better or worse as a result of what happens. Snow is a gift at the end of the day

[Brick Tamland]

I know people say Euro is the king, but it kind of sucks if it shows a foot of snow for a lot of people in NC 4-5 days out only to jump to freezing rain 3-4 days out. Maybe it got it "right" before the GFS did, since the GFS is still showing snow changing to a mix for some in NC, but the Euro was showing a huge snowstorm just like the GFS was less than 36 hours ago. 

[Ander]

23 minutes ago, suzook said:

So looks like more involved now with sleet and ice?? How's the atl area looking on the latest models? Less ice, more rain??

Curious about this for the triangle. I understand the snow and the freezing rain but what sleet translates into for freezing rain I don't quite get.

[msuwx]

Some fairly substantial differences with the western vorts/ interactions at the 500mb level on the 6z Euro vs. the previous couple of runs. Lots of options still on the table. 

[AirNelson39]

We’ve seen this same story time and time again. If you’re in the bullseye 5 days out it rarely ends well. I don’t know why we can’t get winter forecasting in that day range. With that said, too many times we’ve cliff dived at this same range only to have it shift much closer to the bullseye. I remember the cliff diving for the Christmas storm of 2010.

[TriadTom_wxm]

Euro overnight flip is upsetting but game not over. GFS still looks strong, need cold northern air to tush push into the endzone for us in NC. 

[NorthHillsWx]

One thing I can say with 95% confidence is that a big snow event is off the table. Too much would have to be wrong on too many models. Snow to mix can certainly come back for many in NC, I can just say hoping for significant south trends is not as enjoyable as hoping for north trends with a phased system… 

[weatherrev]

I have lurked here for years, rarely posting, but enjoy the conversations among participants.  I have a question that pertains to this storm.  With the Euro runs recently moving the snow/sleet/freezing rain to a more northerly track, I have noticed that the projected ground temps here in the western piedmont of NC on Saturday evening are in the mid to low 20's F.  With that said, would temp levels of the atmosphere rise so quickly at the 5,000 ft and 10,000 ft. levels to support rain, or would it more likely instead be sleet/ice pellets?  Hope that my question is clear.  Again, thanks1

 

[Buddy1987]

I still think there's a surprise or two left in the bag on this one. The GFS was "trending" in the right direction again at 6z. A HP that strong as modeled still gives a good portion of the board a shot. @BornAgain13the 6z Euro and AI Euro had some MEGA hits still in it for our direct areas. Also a good trend was the fact the amped members weren't continuing to trend the wrong way.

[ADB83]

I’ve also been lurking for a long time, more of a model geek than Weather aficionado but just wanna shout you guys out I know it’s disappointing to lose the snow, but I always feel like I know what’s happening well before the public. They’re still thinking big snowstorm when I know ice is much more likely. Even before the TV and social media people catch on. I appreciate these discussions. I learn and I’m always super informed.

[CentralNC]

5 minutes ago, weatherrev said:

I have lurked here for years, rarely posting, but enjoy the conversations among participants.  I have a question that pertains to this storm.  With the Euro runs recently moving the snow/sleet/freezing rain to a more northerly track, I have noticed that the projected ground temps here in the western piedmont of NC on Saturday evening are in the mid to low 20's F.  With that said, would temp levels of the atmosphere rise so quickly at the 5,000 ft and 10,000 ft. levels to support rain, or would it more likely instead be sleet/ice pellets?  Hope that my question is clear.  Again, thanks1

 

Sleet most likely because of deep freezing level just off the surface 

[StoneColdWeatherAustin]

What I think is everyone that was posting in the wee hours of the night need to go back and read the disclaimer from Buckeye yesterday.  It was some great information that will keep you in check with regards to living and dying after each model run.

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

What I think is everyone that was posting in the wee hours of the night need to go back and read the disclaimer from Buckeye yesterday.  It was some great information that will keep you in check with regards to living and dying after each model run.

I disagree, wasn’t one model run. The storm has been lost on everything but GFS in terms of snow and that’s a trend since yesterday morning. 0z just confirmed it

[PackGrad05]

Agreed with north hills. The only thing worth watching at this range is trends. The trends have been obvious. We will see if it swings back. Short range models will also begin to be useful.


.

[BooneWX]

Jimbo, I hope your back feels better after this weekend. If this trends back to us, you’ll have to injure something else next year though. Sorry. 

[yotaman]

Woke up this morning and was actually relieved to see that we have gone from a potential ICE storm to all rain with a mixing on Saturday and Sunday night. My wife is disabled and even though I am set up for loss of power, I am not set up loss of heat. The 2 feet shown a few days ago was a wish but I knew it was fantasy.

[Tony Sisk]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It was writing on the wall as soon as ensembles showed max snow north of here. I don’t care if it shows me with 10” if north of Richmond has double that it means we are mixing and that 10” will become 1”. Just a lifetime of watching storms here. I never bit on this being a snowstorm for us but I did think I-85 and north was in a good spot. Now I’m confident you’ll need to go north or Richmond for the best snows, though I think places in southern Virginia get the thump we thought we’d get yesterday 

"North of Richmond"...we got a new meaning of that song!

[Blacksburg Coach]

Hey guys, First post on these boards. Looks like those of us from High Point up to Roanoke are on Ice Storm watch as of now. The good news is the Euro soundings look like a lot of sleet before switching to freezing rain at the end.

[Tony Sisk]

1 hour ago, gman said:

I don’t understand all the gloom and doom, especially after reading the latest GSP NWS weather discussion. Game still on. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GSP&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

For those of us about to hit 70 years old, we are running out of time and just want to see some white stuff. We are not selfish. It’s been over 1500 days since we have seen over an inch of snow in the Upstate. At this point in my life, I will shout for joy to watch an inch of snow and/or sleet falling. All that said, I am appreciative of the weather discussion. A huge part of the fun is the lead up to the big events, whether they happen or not. You guys make it fun. Thank you. 

Spot on GMan! The excitement that builds up days before the expected event is so much fun to discuss. Then we all get hit with that sour bug 3 days before each event. What happened overnight seems pretty typical for 76-84 hours out in the SE. Let's stay calm and see what transpires through tonight. GSP NWS are the best in the business. We are fortunate to have them. And they are responsible for some of the most difficult forecasting in the country. Since they are forecasting from the highest elevations to the Laurens/Greenwood area.

[Blacksburg Coach]

Wind Gusts towards the end of the precip

[buckeyefan1]

49 minutes ago, msuwx said:

Some fairly substantial differences with the western vorts/ interactions at the 500mb level on the 6z Euro vs. the previous couple of runs. Lots of options still on the table. 

Indeed! You all have got your work cut out and I’ll be sending positive thoughts to ya  I still expect to see swings until at least tomorrow afternoon and the teeeeeniest adjustment will have major impacts down the line. Buckle up everyone 

[WXNewton]

2 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

Wind Gusts towards the end of the precip

That would not be good, if we get mostly freezing rain! Actually this would be worst case scenario.

[BornAgain13]

Just much opinion but if the GFS caves to other guidance, I believe it happens today. I hope not but we will see. 

[WXNewton]

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Just much opinion but if the GFS caves to other guidance, I believe it happens today. I hope not but we will see. 

I think what we will see is the GFS make very very small moves towards the Euro, and I think we will see the Euro make very very small moves back towards the GFS. Ultimately, I think we'll find something in between the two.

[Buddy1987]

For what it's worth @36 hrs NAM shows the Baja energy being affected some by the large lobe of energy above MN. Curious to see how this translates downstream. 

Ok yea.. @42 confluence is pretty pronounced here compared to 6Z. Again I KNOW we are talking Nam but any positive shift is always a good sign to kick off 12z runs.

[NorthHillsWx]

9 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

For what it's worth @36 hrs NAM shows the Baja energy being affected some by the large lobe of energy above MN. Curious to see how this translates downstream. 

Ok yea.. @42 confluence is pretty pronounced here compared to 6Z. Again I KNOW we are talking Nam but any positive shift is always a good sign to kick off 12z runs.

Hour 42 is in NAM range. It’s really beyond 60 hours that you just gotta take it with a grain of salt 

[Buddy1987]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Hour 42 is in NAM range. It’s really beyond 60 hours that you just gotta take it with a grain of salt 

Nam slow as heck this morning. Stuck at 48 for awhile now. One thing is for sure.. that HP means BUSINESS. 1056 pumping into the continental us 

[Buddy1987]

Ridge is taller out west but confluence is stronger in the midwest. Baja energy wanting to interact earlier potentially. Not sure how this translates still. Also to NorthHills point, NAM is getting out of range.

[burgertime]

NAM looks closer at 5h to the 6z Euro than the GFS out to 63. 

[burgertime]

That energy in the north is coming down faster than the Euro. It had it in Canada at 69hrs on the 6z Euro and just touching Idaho at 72. At 72 on the NAM it's diving through Idaho.