January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[wake4est]

Euro looks even colder. Looks amazing so far. 

[Buddy1987]

So far today GFS somewhat on an island compared to GGEM, Ukmet and Euro plus Icon if we’re counting it. Wanting to hold the Baja energy back more so than other guidance. We’ll see how Euro looks momentarily but would need some trends for the GFS to happen. Plenty of time to do so obv. The crazy part is the Euro used to do horribly with southwest energy getting properly ejected and now the GFS seems to be having some issues. GFS Ensembles also would mirror the op in some senses from initial conditions so not sure we can truly weigh it. Time will tell friends..

[HKY_WX]

Euro AI is out and it's pretty similar. Main difference is timing a bit slower on the baha low. Overall impact on real weather is negligible as far as QPF output. The ultimate big dog would be a full ejection of the baha low with the PJ wave coming in behind. This would essential result in a more prolonged version of the storm. Also likely increase QPF and a SLP closer to the  Atlantic coast/warmer air aloft. Not usually the most likely scenario. It's normally a partial ejection (95% of the time).

[burgertime]

Euro looks warmer lots of ZR and sleet for NC. 

[eyewall]

[StantonParkHoya]

That is still snow for northern NC

[WarmNoseHater]

dumb question from a lurkre: when people (PackBacker) say "climatology says _____" is that simply saying that "the history of weather in this area says ____" or is it something else?

related: is "climo" the same as "climatology"?

Thanks.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, burgertime said:

Euro looks warmer lots of ZR and sleet for NC. 

540 line I feel like looks to be quite a bit further north and west no?

[wncsnow]

Euro looks more like UK/Canadian with thermals..ouch 

[burgertime]

4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

540 line I feel like looks to be quite a bit further north and west no?

Sorry I meant warmer than the GFS 

[NorthHillsWx]

Euro jumped super north with thermals. Kinda the Virginia storm theory

[SnowDawg]

Still plenty of room for this to come north. GFS is a terrible model. BAM and all those snarky northern guys are gonna be right aren’t they?

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

1 minute ago, burgertime said:

Sorry I meant warmer than the GFS 

We got what you meant.  Great that you’re here on the forum!

 

[wncsnow]

Question will be how long can we snow before the changeover

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, SnowDawg said:

Still plenty of room for this to come north. GFS is a terrible model. BAM and all those snarky northern guys are gonna be right aren’t they?

Long way to go. Basically 4 days out

[NorthHillsWx]

That was ugly. My eyes are bleeding 

[olafminesaw]

[Brick Tamland]

[Buddy1987]

3 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Sorry I meant warmer than the GFS 

I got you brother I knew what you were saying. I’m sitting in TPA airport right now heading back so I was just doing it off 6z euro recollection. Thought it looked a good bit warmer. I feel like we’re in that smaller adjustment period to fine tune the final markers/barriers for mix/pure snow and precip shield accuracy. Thursday afternoon maybe will be the window to start saying ok this is a good bet. 
 

[burgertime]

I wouldn't let be Euro scare anyone too much. There's really cold air aloft and a strong high funneling it in. Climo says that cold air should be thicker. 

[PackGrad05]

Just now, burgertime said:

I wouldn't let be Euro scare anyone too much. There's really cold air aloft and a strong high funneling it in. Climo days that cold air should be thicker. 

Maybe so, but that still points towards an ICY MIX and not all snow.  Once again, the storm is too strong and not placed well for central NC to have all snow.  

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Maybe so, but that still points towards an ICY MIX and not all snow.  Once again, the storm is too strong and not placed well for central NC to have all snow.  

It's rare yall get all snow anyways even in the best setups. Hope for the best but most likely yall getting ice.

[SouthboundYank]

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

Great run for all. Rather see it flatter and more south than amped. Much broader precip field extending well to the Southwest into texas. I'm in Currituck North Carolina so it's either rain or snow for me. We don't do ice over here.

Good to continue to read you here in the SE forum, after reading you in the MA forum. I know you moved a few years back to OBX...we've since moved to KMYR. Even more interesting tracking from this far south.   

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

DC freakout commencing after that gfs run

Yeah. The MA forum is REALLY good at that freaking-out thing. Don't miss that, although there were several really good analysts up that way. To be fair, the DMV was often in the screw zone, but FFS c'mon, folks...understand your climo.

[eyewall]

I need to order some more Maalox. Anyway the Euro is still a big initial thump of snow even if we do go to ice. I agree this scenario can't be ruled out. 

[wake4est]

Euro dumps 10" snow here then switches to sleet for like a blink, then to ZR for about .5-.7".

[Brick Tamland]

Yeah, snow for most of NC at first and changing over to ice from south to north.

[SnowDawg]

While a sizable split, most individual members within the GEFS favored Kentucky into Virginia for the main snow swath despite the OP being dumb as usual. 

[HKY_WX]

For those in NC. Highly unlikely this storm will be all snow outside of the northern Mountains. Those hoping for that will likely be disappointed. Just the nature of CAD overrunning events drawing from STJ moisture. The best bet is we get such a strong front end thump that by the time it changes over it doesn't matter anymore. That has happened many times in the past. 

[StantonParkHoya]

2 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Euro dumps 10" snow here then switches to sleet for like a blink, then to ZR for about .5-.7".

Reading the replies you'd think it had shown 38 and slop

[KrummWx]

Can someone post maps???