CoastalWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: now that we have some downtime anyway you guys can check the Nemo records from the weather models three days before the storm hit... maybe someone remembers without checking This is nothing like that. The upper level setup was waaaayyyy different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blitzgunner Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Does the EPS-AIFS typically diverge this much from the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: now that we have some downtime anyway you guys can check the Nemo records from the weather models three days before the storm hit... maybe someone remembers without checking Dude, Nemo was well modeled like a week out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: now that we have some downtime anyway you guys can check the Nemo records from the weather models three days before the storm hit... maybe someone remembers without checking It wasn’t Nemo , you are thinking Jan 27 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: It wasn’t Nemo Yea, Juno 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lmao . I actually stumbled upon him on Twitter recently. Lemme see if I can find him Here he is lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Either way, I don’t even know why that’s being used as a comparison. The upper level set up was not even close to this. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Here he is lol Literally the same posts 15 years later 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, Juno ok so you remember how it happened model mayhem maybe you could link us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 While it was a scraper, 18z euro actually moved a decent amount NW. But that’s partly because the 12z run was a completely clean whiff even on the Cape. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: While it was a scraper, 18z euro actually moved a decent amount NW. But that’s partly because the 12z run was a completely clean whiff even on the Cape. we wait for EPS.. if they move west we might have something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Snowy weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Euro AI ensembles a slight tick east but not much change. EPS did move NW. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 GFS /Ukie all alone . Buyers beware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro AI ensembles a slight tick east but not much change. EPS did move NW. its coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: its coming I doubt it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I doubt it Hopefully responding to you. You won't jump on me ( jk ). But I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I doubt it I want to see warning snowfall back to ORH on most model guidance before I think I'm getting even advisory here. This storm is ripe for a big trend NW through tomorrow and then a nice rug-pull after that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I doubt it Hopefully responding to you. You won't jump on me ( jk ). But I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I want to see warning snowfall back to ORH on most model guidance before I think I'm getting even advisory here. This storm is ripe for a big trend NW through tomorrow and then a nice rug-pull after that. A lot of mets seem to be thinking that, without actually saying that.. nobody really wants to write this off entirely , but nobody is biting either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 37 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: That guy was really weird. He catfished me on PMs. Pretended he was a hot woman. Meh I used to kick my feet up on the desk and fall asleep and fantasize 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I want to see warning snowfall back to ORH on most model guidance before I think I'm getting even advisory here. This storm is ripe for a big trend NW through tomorrow and then a nice rug-pull after that. Fully prepared for white rain Saturday and a whiff Sunday night. This is getting out of control stupid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said: A lot of mets seem to be thinking that, without actually saying that.. nobody really wants to write this off, but nobody is biting either. I think its definitely low probability for warning snows even for eastern areas, but there's truth in that nobody really has a great feel for this system. I think even the most seasoned mets are looking at the trough position and know it's quite good....but the shortwave interference is mucking it up...however, it's not always fatal to a storm when you have shortwave interference....esp if other factors are good enough to overcome it like a massive ridge out west and/or very strong vort energy near base trough. So we're all kind of waiting to see if the negative variable can be overcome by the positive ones. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 44 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: That guy was really weird. He catfished me on PMs. Pretended he was a hot woman. Did you bite? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Literally the same posts 15 years later That's him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 46 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: now that we have some downtime anyway you guys can check the Nemo records from the weather models three days before the storm hit... maybe someone remembers without checking I think we should check this: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 What is this obsession with Nemo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 12 minutes ago, kdxken said: Did you bite? Oh I totally fell for it. Luckily no inappropriate pics were exchanged. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: What is this obsession with named winter storms Fyp 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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