First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

now that we have some downtime anyway you guys can check the Nemo records from the weather models three days before the storm hit... maybe someone remembers without checking

This is nothing like that. The upper level setup was waaaayyyy different.

[Blitzgunner]

Does the EPS-AIFS typically diverge this much from the EPS?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

now that we have some downtime anyway you guys can check the Nemo records from the weather models three days before the storm hit... maybe someone remembers without checking

Dude, Nemo was well modeled like a week out 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

now that we have some downtime anyway you guys can check the Nemo records from the weather models three days before the storm hit... maybe someone remembers without checking

It wasn’t Nemo , you are thinking Jan 27 2015

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It wasn’t Nemo 

Yea, Juno

[Damage In Tolland]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lmao . I actually stumbled upon him on Twitter recently. Lemme see if I can find him 

Here he is lol

[CoastalWx]

Either way, I don’t even know why that’s being used as a comparison. The upper level set up was not even close to this.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here he is lol

Literally the same posts 15 years later 

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, Juno

ok so you remember how it happened model mayhem maybe you could link us?

[ORH_wxman]

While it was a scraper, 18z euro actually moved a decent amount NW. But that’s partly because the 12z run was a completely clean whiff even on the Cape. 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

While it was a scraper, 18z euro actually moved a decent amount NW. But that’s partly because the 12z run was a completely clean whiff even on the Cape. 

we wait for EPS.. if they move west we might have something

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Snowy weekend

[CoastalWx]

Euro AI ensembles a slight tick east but not much change. EPS did move NW.

[Damage In Tolland]

GFS /Ukie all alone . Buyers beware 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro AI ensembles a slight tick east but not much change. EPS did move NW.

its coming 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

its coming 

I doubt it

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I doubt it

Hopefully responding to you. You won't jump on me ( jk ). But I agree.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I doubt it

I want to see warning snowfall back to ORH on most model guidance before I think I'm getting even advisory here. This storm is ripe for a big trend NW through tomorrow and then a nice rug-pull after that. 

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I doubt it

Hopefully responding to you. You won't jump on me ( jk ). But I agree.

[8611Blizz]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I want to see warning snowfall back to ORH on most model guidance before I think I'm getting even advisory here. This storm is ripe for a big trend NW through tomorrow and then a nice rug-pull after that. 

A lot of mets seem to be thinking that, without actually saying that.. nobody really wants to write this off entirely , but nobody is biting either.

[weatherwiz]

37 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

That guy was really weird. He catfished me on PMs. Pretended he was a hot woman.

Meh I used to kick my feet up on the desk and fall asleep and fantasize 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I want to see warning snowfall back to ORH on most model guidance before I think I'm getting even advisory here. This storm is ripe for a big trend NW through tomorrow and then a nice rug-pull after that. 

Fully prepared for white rain Saturday and a whiff Sunday night. This is getting out of control stupid.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

A lot of mets seem to be thinking that, without actually saying that.. nobody really wants to write this off, but nobody is biting either.

I think its definitely low probability for warning snows even for eastern areas, but there's truth in that nobody really has a great feel for this system. I think even the most seasoned mets are looking at the trough position and know it's quite good....but the shortwave interference is mucking it up...however, it's not always fatal to a storm when you have shortwave interference....esp if other factors are good enough to overcome it like a massive ridge out west and/or very strong vort energy near base trough. So we're all kind of waiting to see if the negative variable can be overcome by the positive ones. 

[kdxken]

44 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

That guy was really weird. He catfished me on PMs. Pretended he was a hot woman.

Did you bite?

[Baroclinic Zone]

 

[kdxken]

39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Literally the same posts 15 years later 

That's him!

[UnitedWx]

46 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

now that we have some downtime anyway you guys can check the Nemo records from the weather models three days before the storm hit... maybe someone remembers without checking

I think we should check this: 

[weatherwiz]

What is this obsession with Nemo 

[H2Otown_WX]

12 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Did you bite?

Oh I totally fell for it. Luckily no inappropriate pics were exchanged.

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What is this obsession with named winter storms

Fyp