First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[ORH_wxman]

That was objectively a nice move. Need another one. 

[ORH_wxman]

The predecessor wave drops 1-3” Saturday PM across most of interior SNE/CNE

[dryslot]

16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Another shift like that and it’s a warning event for Eastern Ma

Oh boy!

[WinterWolf]

Eerily similar to late January 2015 when the predecessor event dropped 1-3 inches of wet glop that Friday night into Saturday morning, and then the big dog came back west on the 0z Euro that night/early morning.   
 

Of course nothing is ever identical, and not saying 2015 is walking in, but has a similar feeling, and similar look.  With an extended look that looks promising as well.  
 

Just some observations that are similar to close to the same timeframe from 11 years ago.  If anything perhaps just a week earlier this go around, compared to the start of 2015.  

[dryslot]

Just looking at the euro quickly while I was driving looks like it ticked west some.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Eerily similar to late January 2015 when the predecessor event dropped 1-3 inches of wet glop that Friday night into Saturday morning, and then the big dog came back west on the 0z Euro that night/early morning.   
 

Of course nothing is ever identical, and not saying 2015 is walking in, but has a similar feeling, and similar look.  With an extended look that looks promising as well.  
 

Just some observations that are similar to close to the same timeframe from 11 years ago.  If anything perhaps just a week earlier this go around, compared to the start of 2015.  

I got 4-5 inches from the predecessor.  2 inches of glop but 2-3 more on the backside cementing the nascent pack.  It was hard to imagine my grill completely submerged a few weeks later such that I had to wait until early spring to find it.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, weathafella said:

I got 4-5 inches from the predecessor.  2 inches of glop but 2-3 more on the backside cementing the nascent pack.  It was hard to imagine my grill completely submerged a few weeks later such that I had to wait until early spring to find it.

Ya you guys did a little better in that one(as you did throughout that whole crazy run lol), but here it was 3+ inches of glop as temps were borderline.  

[ineedsnow]

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s not get to overly confident…has work to do. But it has the time to do it.  Still Not sure it makes it though.  

oh I'm not im just trying to get good juju flowing in the thread 

[The 4 Seasons]

16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Eerily similar to late January 2015 when the predecessor event dropped 1-3 inches of wet glop that Friday night into Saturday morning, and then the big dog came back west on the 0z Euro that night/early morning.   
 

Of course nothing is ever identical, and not saying 2015 is walking in, but has a similar feeling, and similar look.  With an extended look that looks promising as well.  
 

Just some observations that are similar to close to the same timeframe from 11 years ago.  If anything perhaps just a week earlier this go around, compared to the start of 2015.  

1-3?? Try widespread 4-8+ warning snow. You are misremembering a bit here. It was wet glop,  but a legit storm. I enjoyed this more than that fake blizzard actually. It was a legit costal, check out the sfc animation. 

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-24-2015

 

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I got 4-5 inches from the predecessor.  2 inches of glop but 2-3 more on the backside cementing the nascent pack.  It was hard to imagine my grill completely submerged a few weeks later such that I had to wait until early spring to find it.

I went to see a Garth Brooks concert that Saturday night and as we got into Boston, the backlash started and temps dropped like 10 degrees. Everything went from sloppy mess to frozen with 3” of powder on top. Was a really wintry scene in town that night. Of course, I was weenieing out the entire time during the concert checking the NAM, then the RGEM, etc as the 00z runs came in and that’s when they turned it into a monster HECS. The 12z runs had already gone into a moderate event. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

1-3?? Try widespread 4-8+ warning snow. You are misremembering a bit here. It was wet glop,  but a legit storm. I enjoyed this more than that fake blizzard actually. It was a legit costal, check out the sfc animation. 

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-24-2015

 

We only got close to 4” here…we(you and I)were actually in touch that late evening. But it was upper3’s to 4” here in Southington. Not remembering wrong for my house. You did better than I did in that. 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

We only got close to 4” here…we(you and I)were actually in touch that late evening. But it was upper3’s to 4” here in southington. Not remembering wrong for my house. You did better than I did in that. 

OK fair enough but calling it a 1-3 event when the whole state got 4-8 save New london middlsex Co is objectively wrong. The literal only report under 3 was Stonington.  Picked up about 6 here. It was pure paste and a very solid base for the long duration snow pack 

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I went to see a Garth Brooks concert that Saturday night and as we got into Boston, the backlash started and temps dropped like 10 degrees. Everything went from sloppy mess to frozen with 3” of powder on top. Was a really wintry scene in town that night. Of course, I was weenieing out the entire time during the concert checking the NAM, then the RGEM, etc as the 00z runs came in and that’s when they turned it into a monster HECS. The 12z runs had already gone into a moderate event. 

I had to go to an event that Saturday night and there was one guy who reads but doesn’t post on the board.  I remember going up to him as the 0Z guidance was rolling in saying “we’re getting buried!” barely containing myself…lol.

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

OK fair enough but calling it a 1-3 event when the whole state got 4-8 save New london middlsex Co is objectively wrong. The literal only report under 3 was Stonington.  Picked up about 6 here. It was pure paste and a very solid base for the long duration snow pack 

I see very very few 8’s on that map in CT.  More 6” amounts not so much 8”.   Again, wasn’t trying to downgrade anything pal, but it wasn’t that great here at my place…barely approached 4”.  I was actually gonna say 2-4”, but being I barely made it to 4”, I went a little lower.   Point is it was the appetizer for the most part.   
 

And yes, that blizzard was a dud for us, as was the whole big blitz was muted for us WOR.  Still very good, but nothing historic out our way here.  
 

Anyway, let’s hope we are about to enter into something decent at the very least. 

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I see very very few 8’s on that map in CT.  More 6” amounts not so much 8”.   Again, wasn’t trying to downgrade anything pal, but it wasn’t that great here at my place…barely approached 4”.  I was actually gonna say 2-4”, but being I barely made it to 4”, I went a little lower.   Point is it was the appetizer for the most part.   
 

And yes, that blizzard was a dud for us, as was the whole big blitz was muted for us WOR.  Still very good, but nothing historic out our way here.  
 

Anyway, let’s hope we are about to enter into something decent at the very least. 

Can you maybe fight him or arm wrestle it out?

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Can you maybe fight him or arm wrestle it out?

Lol…let’s hope the action comes from the weather and not me and the 4Seasons. It’s all good. My only point, was that this whole thing seems similar to late January of 2015. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…let’s hope the action comes from the weather and not me and the 4Seasons. It’s all good. My only point, was that this whole thing seems similar to late January of 2015. 

I have heard a few people make that comparison...even pattern wise.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have heard a few people make that comparison...even pattern wise.

Well,  it’s not too hard to see if you remember that time frame…we had a lot of people pretty dam upset about the lack of winter at that time too. Lots of similarities on multiple fronts imo. 

[The 4 Seasons]

33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I see very very few 8’s on that map in CT.  More 6” amounts not so much 8”.   Again, wasn’t trying to downgrade anything pal, but it wasn’t that great here at my place…barely approached 4”.  I was actually gonna say 2-4”, but being I barely made it to 4”, I went a little lower.   Point is it was the appetizer for the most part.   
 

And yes, that blizzard was a dud for us, as was the whole big blitz was muted for us WOR.  Still very good, but nothing historic out our way here.  
 

Anyway, let’s hope we are about to enter into something decent at the very least. 

And, hence that is why we have a range...4 up to..8. An average of 6 actually makes perfect sense. 

So we went from 1-3 to 3-4 to barely made it to 4...to 4.6"? pretty sure that 4.6" report in Southington is you, but i could be wrong. There is another cocorahs report of 6.6 but i left it out to include yours (or someone else on here)

Anyways its all good, we don't need to drone on about a past event that has nothing to do with this one. I was just a little shocked to see you say 1-3 when ive been over that event 3-4 times and probably have 3-4 iterations of the CT map alone. 

I always appreciate you sending me your reports for Southington, all good wolfie. Lets kick this thing west, i know its coming.

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well,  it’s not too hard to see if you remember that time frame…we had a lot of people pretty dam upset about the lack of winter at that time too. Lots of similarities on multiple fronts imo. 

Rags to riches that winter. That Jan 24th event is the one that kicked everything off. Before that it was virtually a rat. Except for the interior lucky few from the Nov 26th, 2014 storm.

At least this season were off to a good start, mostly speaking for us. 

[weathafella]

I remember the mid January gtg at Funky’s and BOS was under 10” for the season.  I think we were watching the AFC playoff game between the Ravens and I can’t remember who but Joe Flacco hit an end of the game Hail Mary.  Jay who was then sboswx whispered “I think he does it” and Lo and behold he did!  Before pickles and I left (we traveled together) I asked Will “how much for the season at BOS?  Will throws out 53” and pickles and I are thinking man that’s bold.  Final total 110.  

[SouthCoastMA]

EPS are so flat at 18z, gotta think those trend west at 0z given the other guidance 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I remember the mid January gtg at Funky’s and BOS was under 10” for the season.  I think we were watching the AFC playoff game between the Ravens and I can’t remember who but Joe Flacco hit an end of the game Hail Mary.  Jay who was then sboswx whispered “I think he does it” and Lo and behold he did!  Before pickles and I left (we traveled together) I asked Will “how much for the season at BOS?  Will throws out 53” and pickles and I are thinking man that’s bold.  Final total 110.  

See, You never know bro….  

[Go Kart Mozart]

Does euro still have the bias of holding energy toward the SW too long, or has that been corrected?

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I see very very few 8’s on that map in CT.  More 6” amounts not so much 8”.   Again, wasn’t trying to downgrade anything pal, but it wasn’t that great here at my place…barely approached 4”.  I was actually gonna say 2-4”, but being I barely made it to 4”, I went a little lower.   Point is it was the appetizer for the most part.   
 

And yes, that blizzard was a dud for us, as was the whole big blitz was muted for us WOR.  Still very good, but nothing historic out our way here.  
 

Anyway, let’s hope we are about to enter into something decent at the very least. 

I didn't do as well those east but I was in between you guys and the big dogs. I remember going east for work and was amazed at the pack they had. I have pictures somewhere but don't think I'll ever find them.

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Rags to riches that winter. That Jan 24th event is the one that kicked everything off. Before that it was virtually a rat. Except for the interior lucky few from the Nov 26th, 2014 storm.

At least this season were off to a good start, mostly speaking for us. 

And this was my point, that system was what kicked it all off.  Yes, that season was a rat up to that late January point. This one, so far anyway is much better for us here in CT, than that one was for us, as you point out. 
 

And I learned something tonight, and that was that the kickoff system in ‘15 that we’ve been discussing, was better than I thought it was for a lot of the area. It just wasn’t that good here in my town. As I said, I wasn’t trying to downplay it, was just going on my backyard for that, and it wasn’t as good here. Didn’t realize it was pretty decent in a lot of other places. Cool.  

[George001]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

And this was my point, that system was what kicked it all off.  Yes, that season was a rat up to that late January point. This one, so far anyway is much better for us here in CT, than that one was for us, as you point out. 
 

And I learned something tonight, and that was that the kickoff system in ‘15 that we’ve been discussing, was better than I thought it was for a lot of the area. It just wasn’t that good here in my town. As I said, I wasn’t trying to downplay it, was just going on my backyard for that, and it wasn’t as good here. Didn’t realize it was pretty decent in a lot of other places. Cool.  

That kickoff system was modeled as a 12-16 incher in the mid range, and bumped NW last min leading to mixing and changeover to rain cutting down on totals in eastern areas. The follow up threat…. That went from 0-100 on guidance inside 5 days. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

That kickoff system was modeled as a 12-16 incher in the mid range, and bumped NW last min leading to mixing and changeover to rain cutting down on totals in eastern areas. The follow up threat…. That went from 0-100 on guidance inside 5 days. 

Really?  I don’t remember it doing that on modeling?  But ok. 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…let’s hope the action comes from the weather and not me and the 4Seasons. It’s all good. My only point, was that this whole thing seems similar to late January of 2015. 

 

[The 4 Seasons]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Really?  I don’t remember it doing that on modeling?  But ok. 

Hes absolutely right. The Jan 24th event was the big system in the mid-range...id say about 120hrs +/- 20 hrs, somewhere in that region, it was being modeled as a big dog 12-16"+ event region wide on multiple models, then it fizzled and turned to shit, somewhat. @George001 remembers. I know this stops at Jan 27, but that storm didn't even exist at this point, it was all the first system Jan 24th. I dont have much saved from that event but heres one run.