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Storm potential January 18th-19th


WeatherGeek2025
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8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Agree and few Mets post much here anymore ..........

people don't post much anywhere on places like these anymore.....most of the forums i went to on health topics and sports are either gone or have slow traffic. it kinda started with facebook then moved on to other things. there were three other weather forums back in the day that i recall, and anthony was on at least two of them......that's dedication. at least i think it was him.....you'll notice a lot of magazine and news sites have dropped comments as well. 

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7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Screenshot_20260115_094322_X.jpg

i wouldn't buy into this too much.....it's like saying hey, we could have an economic, military, or political event.....you're bound to be right at some point and never wrong about there being possibilities. the surest way to get a good grade in history is to start your essay with,  'it was a period of change and transition '.....can't go wrong.

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2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

people don't post much anywhere on places like these anymore.....most of the forums i went to on health topics and sports are either gone or have slow traffic. it kinda started with facebook then moved on to other things. there were three other weather forums back in the day that i recall, and anthony was on at least two of them......that's dedication. at least i think it was him.....you'll notice a lot of magazine and news sites have dropped comments as well. 

Facebook is so full of nonsense and bots and Ai garbage I have had to block hundreds of former friends and sites

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

What I find most interesting (especially psychologically) is that if there were no GFS model (and is there, really? lol), we'd be looking at the 0Z/6Z situation differently with improvements on the AI models a nudge NW for the Euro (if still mostly a miss), decent RDPS/GDPS and a less snowy ICON and thinking 1-2" might be a decent middle ground guess right now (as per the NBM) - which I'd take in a heartbeat.

Yeah both GFS-AI and ECM-AI ticked better.

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Ideally you don't want multiple shortwaves stacked such that the northerly ones are displaced right of the trof axis like the entire thing is toppling over. That inhibits neutral/negative tilting of the trof. Or more precisely it indicates that the overall flow isn't conducive to negative tilting. The RGEM isn't a bad run - we're still in the game - but it has clear flaws.

rgem_z500_vort_us_67.thumb.jpg.57f4db7716ac17108cce3e47f2634663.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the sunday event better than Sat  Sat is an inch or less Sun is 1-2 verbatim

Back to back daytime 1-2" events with lollis to 3" on a weekend. That would be enjoyable if it happened. A little less for eastern/coastal areas with the first and more with the second.

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18 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

1-2" is hard to accumulate during daytime in CPK unless temps are cold. Verbatim, seems like temps are in mid 30s which would be white rain. 

Icon brought back some light snow on Sunday, with more moderate snowfall towards east New England. 

Let's see where rest of models fall on this. 

I don't think many people live in CPK.

But Manhattan - sure - and other urbanized locations have trouble accumulating unless it's either very cold or very heavy snow. There's also heavy salting of roads and sidewalks in urban areas. But Saturday isn't modeled to be warm. Snow should be able to accumulate just about anywhere outside the heavily urbanized areas (N&W). For anyone who enjoys experiencing accumulating snow, it's a good idea to move outside those areas.

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1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Nope

yea, it will be even further east this run by the looks of it. At this point, just hoping for a couple inches between saturday and sunday and that seems very doable. don't need a blockbuster which was never on the table save a few GFS runs.

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