January 16-19th: Rolling the dice

[TSSN+]

Just now, WhiteoutMD said:

Is this replacing the NAM? 

They should put it in the trash can before that cause it’s worse than the Nam from what I have seen so far going back to December lol 

[Weather Will]

4 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

Is this replacing the NAM? 

Think it is supposed to this year.

[paulythegun]

[Weather Will]

WB RRFS 12Z compared to 18Z (2nd picture) through 3pm Sunday.

[Ji]

What are we tracking in this thread?

[Weather Will]

Just now, Ji said:

What are we tracking in this thread?

I thought it was everything through this weekend but everyone is all over the place.

[rjvanals]

GFS wants to bring us some snow tv tomorrow midday 

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

What are we tracking in this thread?

Everything before Sunday’s partly cloudy/rain/dusting/blizzard

[TSSN+]

Someone getting 1/2-1.5” Friday night into Saturday morning. Right now best chance is NE Maryland based on models but it’s been shifting around and won’t be nailed down till maybe 12hrs out. 

[clskinsfan]

RGEM rainy east of the fall line. But pretty nice west of the Blue Ridge. This weekend is going to surprise someone. Maybe not here. But somewhere. 

[Terpeast]

gfs and euro still worlds apart for Sunday. We need those recon flights yesterday haha

[CAPE]

I guess technically there should be a separate thread for 'my' storm which was Sunday into Monday, but I wouldn't bother- both of these 'events' look severely underwhelming lol. Tomorrow looks better for along and NW of I-95 and Sunday for the coastal regions. My forecast has an inch or less for Sunday, and only the GFS and the AIs support that. The beach areas have the best shot at a couple inches.

[Interstate]

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I guess technically there should be a separate thread for 'my' storm which was Sunday into Monday, but I wouldn't bother- both of these 'events' look severely underwhelming lol. Tomorrow looks better for along and NW of I-95 and Sunday for the coastal regions. My forecast has an inch or less for Sunday, and only the GFS and the AIs support that. The beach areas have the best shot at a couple inches.

Make a new one or rename this one. 

[WxUSAF]

Added Sunday to this. Maybe if we keep changing the dates, eventually this will be a snowstorm thread?

[WxUSAF]

GFSAI has precip back into the mountains for Sunday! It’s a full on SECS. EuroAI still has precip past DC. AI models either going to win glory or shame.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFSAI has precip back into the mountains for Sunday! It’s a full on SECS. EuroAI still has precip past DC. AI models either going to win glory or shame.

How is it this bad 60hrs out? This might be some of the worse modeling I’ve seen lately. Shameful 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9z RAP actually has a nice little burst 11am-12pm Sat

[TSSN+]

6z euro worlds part from gfs Sunday. It’s not even close. But tomorrow it gives good snows to some. 1-2”

 

[Terpeast]

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFSAI has precip back into the mountains for Sunday! It’s a full on SECS. EuroAI still has precip past DC. AI models either going to win glory or shame.

The non-AI GFS isn’t actually that far off from the AIGFS at 06z. I don’t really trust AI precip fields as they’re not typically trained for those, but its actually not too far off from the op. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

The non-AI GFS isn’t actually that far off from the AIGFS at 06z. I don’t really trust AI precip fields as they’re not typically trained for those, but its actually not too far off from the op. 

The differences between rgem, gfs and euro are pretty hilarious for being only 54-60hrs out.