Ice Ice Baby December 28-29 Storm Discussion

[Baroclinic Zone]

Let’s talk about impending ice storm. Feel likes it been awhile since we’ve had one in New England.

Some models showing up to 0.50” up in C/NNE. Down in SNE, effects don’t; seem as bad but will impact travel.

We will likely see power outages with winds expected as a strong cold front pushes through after this storm exits northeast.

3km 18z NAM

[VivaManchVegas]

SNH could be in for a problem Monday morning.  Not a December 2008 issue but something to monitor. Latest HRR

[Baroclinic Zone]

00z HRRR hitting icing hard. Still long range for it but something to monitor.

 

[VivaManchVegas]

Even better 

[VivaManchVegas]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

00z HRRR hitting icing hard. Still long range for it but something to monitor.

 

I do appreciate that.  1 inch of ice is worse than 3 feet of snow in many cases.  I do not feel that the local stations are mentioning this event past a minor nuisance. 

[Not me in VT]

2008 the last time for a big ice in SVT? 

Worth checking on generators in the morning. 

[Prismshine Productions]

I've only experienced one crippling Ice Storm:

January 2005 living in South Carolina.

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[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I've only experienced one crippling Ice Storm:

January 2005 living in South Carolina.

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Been a while since I’ve seen ya post. Hope all is well.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

00z HRRR hitting icing hard. Still long range for it but something to monitor.

 

Nammy not handling this well 

[WxWatcher007]

I know we're all basically going to flip to rain eventually, but this seems like it's flying in under the radar. HRRR and RRFS seem pretty robust in keeping cold locked in for longer. Might be a pretty good event in CNE and NNE. 

[TheMainer]

Models are all spitting out 3-5 inches of snow north of the 45th in our area, fingers crossed that's right, but still worried about the warm layer coming up quick to flip to freezing rain. Hopefully Tolland, CT gets 0.5 and we stay mostly snow and sleet!

[dendrite]

Monday’s morning commute may suck, but otherwise this is overblown.

[Modfan2]

Down to 3F in the valley in Eastern CT, a little concerned that cold air here will be hard to erode. Hoping we warm nicely today 

[Sugarloaf1989]

7F here. On December 2nd it  didn't get above freezing. Feezing rain for a few hours.

[ineedsnow]

I just hope we get some glaze on top of the snow before we warm

[ineedsnow]

Dew of -4 hopefully we can keep temps down later.. NAM kind of tame compared to the HRRR.. HRRR has a bunch.more qpf.. guess we see how this trends

[mahk_webstah]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

Monday’s morning commute may suck, but otherwise this is overblown.

Couldn’t agree more.  It will lock up the pack though.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Dew of -4 hopefully we can keep temps down later.. NAM kind of tame compared to the HRRR.. HRRR has a bunch.more qpf.. guess we see how this trends

It will definitely warm over 40 south of 90.. but models are always too fast in eroding the cold in these . It happens but not as fast as they show. Especially with no screaming winds . I’d bet the valley stays in the 30’s till fropa 

[wx2fish]

Skeptical of the HRRR, but verbatim the 12z run is 3/4" qpf as freezing rain across SNH. My guess is its a little too cold, and itll be a faster rise to around 32 for many. But, something to montior today. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Been a while since I’ve seen ya post. Hope all is well.

ASM for Dollar Tree during holiday season... My absence is valid



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[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

Skeptical of the HRRR, but verbatim the 12z run is 3/4" qpf as freezing rain across SNH. My guess is it’s a little too cold, and itll be a faster rise to around 32 for many. But, something to montior today. 

I also don’t think the accretion will be overly efficient in this type of setup. When the cold layer is so shallow like this, the liquid drops are not as supercooled so they won’t freeze as quickly on contact. In icing events where we have robust cold up into the 925-950 layer, that’s when the accretion is usually much more efficient. It prob will start pretty icy but then then it will get pretty marginal.  

[Prismshine Productions]

Anybody got the FRAM actual ice equivalent?... Iirc isn't the ratio for ZR:QPF something like .5:1?

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[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I also don’t think the accretion will be overly efficient in this type of setup. When the cold layer is so shallow like this, the liquid drops are not as supercooled so they won’t freeze as quickly on contact. In icing events where we have robust cold up into the 925-950 layer, that’s when the accretion is usually much more efficient. It prob will start pretty icy but then then it will get pretty marginal.  

Do you think it’s a pack wiper ?

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

7 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Anybody got the FRAM actual ice equivalent?... Iirc isn't the ratio for ZR:QPF something like .5:1?

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Here ya go. 12z HRRR FRAM est.

[dendrite]

The SN/IP zone in Maine kinda gets bullied by the WAA…not something I like to see for going big ice in CNE. HRRR has MHT below 32° for the entirety…hard sell on that. I think it’s underestimating the diabatic latent warming and the lack of Tip’s +PP. 

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you think it’s a pack wiper ?

I dunno, I really think it depends how long temps are above 40F…in your area to my area, there’s a decent chance it wipes the pack. Prob gonna be 12+ hours of 40+ dews.
 

Not a lot of water in the pack either (though my bottom layer from 12/23 is kind of dense). Western CT up into ORH county might keep it though as they spend less time above 40F. If we had like an inch of water in the pack then this wouldn’t wipe it out, but this is not that type of pack. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah mine will be gone, but maybe Kev over to Will can hopefully keep some since you have more OTG. Might help that Will has a pseudo glacier. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Here ya go. 12z HRRR FRAM est.

So yeah roughly .5:1 like I guessed... Still, 1/2 of ZR is no joke

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[dendrite]

FRAM is the kuchie of ice

[CoastalWx]

Yeah sell the hrrr here.