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Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026


BooneWX
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On 7/3/2026 at 11:31 AM, Avdave said:

Well aren't you the beaerer of good news lol.   No matter what, its still going to be hot next week with temps in the mid to upper 90s here. 

Those temps look way over blown. 112 at 8 pm. lol

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10 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Falls lake has resumed its freefall this past week. Driving over the 85 bridge or beaver dam is breathtaking 

image.thumb.png.e77f82e170523e1aa86c7a89e96233cf.png

 

It is basically falling at its steepest rate since the real drop began. Showers over the next few days should slow or stop the bleeding for a short time. 

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 To his credit, Joe Bastardi made quite a good call on Arthur starting way back in late April when he projected MJO to go into phase 8 in early June and thus forecasted TCG in the Gulf based on climo of phase 8. He was about a week too early, which he admitted and he even admitted he got lucky. It actually formed when the MJO moved from 8 to 1. Regardless, I’m giving him credit, especially since I sometimes criticize him for being wrong.

 I’m mentioning this now because during the last couple of days, he’s been talking about the MJO returning to phase 8 for most of the 2nd half of July on the Euro (JMA agrees) although the GEFS holds it back and only barely reaches 8 before bringing it back into 7. 

 So, based on the Euro, JB is sort of predicting Gulf tropical mischief potential again later this month based on July phase 8 climo being similar to June phase 8. On Friday he showed the Euro AI with a Gulf TS in the E Gulf on July 22nd. We’ll see.

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