January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

It's a La Nina pattern. That shouldn't be a surprise.

it was suppose to awaken a bit. La Nina does not mean no southern stream for the entire winter

[GaWx]

Just now, Ji said:

Jan 16--zero southern stream.

Ji,

 With it still being a solid La Niña on a RONI basis (was still  -1.0 in Dec and is only slowly warming), wouldn’t a weak southern stream be favored much of the winter?

[Ji]

things are looking bad...this is my time to shine on the board! Im taking over lol

[Ji]

Just now, GaWx said:

Ji,

 With it still being a solid La Niña on a RONI basis (was still  -1.0 in Dec and is only slowly warming), wouldn’t a weak southern stream be favored much of the winter?

yes just like in Nino where you can have a stretch of no southern stream...it can be the same for a Nina. Last year there was some southern stream but no interaction with northern branch

[stormy]

Capsulized reality:

December averaged 4 - 5 degrees colder than normal.

A January thaw will occur for the next week - 10 days.  There are mixed signals after that.

Snow threats have evaporated until after the 15th.  Pray for rain to alleviate our serious drought.

Smile and enjoy the thaw, as I will be.  Crank up the grill for a backyard barbecue!!

[mitchnick]

I haven't commented on the 0z or 12z runs because there really isn't anything that stands out to get excited over. But there is one thing for certain, and that's that all ensembles are giving us anywhere from barely an inch or 2 snowfall over 15 or 16 days. We're in, or heading into, peak snow climo. Those numbers really are abysmal and there's no 2 ways about it. And it's not only a temp issue. It's just a pattern that, even if cold, just isn't stormy with the only precip coming via cold fronts. Hopefully it changes sooner than later. But I do agree with JI that we should start to see snowfall on the ensembles and on ops IF and when there's a change for the better. 

[pazzo83]

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

Fucking hell

i'm cancelling winter next year too in case folks were wondering.  If Ji keeps it up I might start looking at 2027-28.

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I haven't commented on the 0z or 12z runs because there really isn't anything that stands out to get excited over. But there is one thing for certain, and that's that all ensembles are giving us anywhere from barely an inch or 2 snowfall over 15 or 16 days. We're in, or heading into, peak snow climo. Those numbers really are abysmal and there's no 2 ways about it. And it's not only a temp issue. It's just a pattern that, even if cold, just isn't stormy with the only precip coming via cold fronts. Hopefully it changes sooner than later. But I do agree with JI that we should start to see snowfall on the ensembles and on ops IF and when there's a change for the better. 

You could depress even a very joyful person. When did you get so grumpy?. 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

You could depress even a very joyful person. When did you get so grumpy?. 

Truth sux sometimes, especially when it comes to snow chances unfortunately. 

[pazzo83]

20 minutes ago, stormy said:

Capsulized reality:

December averaged 4 - 5 degrees colder than normal.

A January thaw will occur for the next week - 10 days.  There are mixed signals after that.

Snow threats have evaporated until after the 15th.  Pray for rain to alleviate our serious drought.

Smile and enjoy the thaw, as I will be.  Crank up the grill for a backyard barbecue!!

yeah all joking aside - we need precip (rain, snow, whatever) in a bad way.

[Ji]

yeah all joking aside - we need precip (rain, snow, whatever) in a bad way.

We have not had a real precipitation maker since Dec 2. And that was a southern stream event

[Ji]

On a sidenote, we are having models run now every six hours up to 384 like never before. Gfs gfs Ai euro euro ai… eps eps ai gefs gefs ai…Canadian and some other AI models that I’m missing.
Data overload?

[bncho]

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Does that mean we finally get the rockin' February?

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Does that mean we finally get the rockin' February?

Taking what Webb said and looking ahead to where the Feb MJO may start (fwiw since that’s in the low skill 4 week away period and the models recently have done poorly much earlier than that), the latest forecasts of the extendeds look seemingly favorable for early Feb as they’re showing it going into phase 8 then: coldest Feb phases are 8-1-2-3

1/3 ext GEFS:

 

1/3 ext EPS:

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Taking what Webb said and looking ahead to where the Feb MJO may start (fwiw since that’s in the low skill 4 week away period and the models recently have done poorly much earlier than that), the latest forecasts of the extendeds look seemingly favorable for early Feb as they’re showing it going into phase 8 then: coldest Feb phases are 8-1-2-3

1/3 ext GEFS:

 

1/3 ext EPS:

people are making too big of a deal of MJO phase 6. If this is correct...its a 2-4 day thing where irs out of the neutral circle

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 As I said, I think BAMwx is significantly too cold in the means (which is what their map is supposed to represent). That pink area of -6 to -7 in the SE is, in reality (based on actual data that I analyzed) more like -2 along with much variation. And I didn’t analyze it for the entire E half of the US, which would take too long. If I get time, I could add a city like Baltimore, however, just to get an idea for this forum’s area.

2 things. It's not a slam dunk that we'll be in Phase 6, but even if we are, it won't be for the entire month of January.  Here's a link to the various models. Bc is an abbreviation of Bias Corrected.

https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

[TSSN+]

The fact is it’s dry and looks to continue to be dry. Been that way since like July. There is just no big weather makers in the area for the last 5+ months and I don’t really see that changing for a while.  Most of the area is in a moderate or severe drought status for a reason. 

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, Ji said:

people are making too big of a deal of MJO phase 6. If this is correct...its a 2-4 day thing where irs out of the neutral circle

Ji/Mitch

 I agree that folks are making too big of a deal about phase 6 and BAMwx’s map is much too cold as I said. My own research looked at phase 6 including phase 6 inside the circle and it was as I said not nearly as cold as that BAMwx’s map for all cases averaged out (-2 at GSP vs BAM’s -6 to -7). Based on the latest ext GEFS, phase 6 is currently forecasted to last 9 days (14th-22nd) while it lasts 7 days on the ext EPS (14th-20th). So, both have 7 days (14th-20th) in phase 6. But of course they’ll likely not verify exactly and may end up not close. And even if close, the variance of temperatures for Jan La Niña phase 6 is large.

@mitchnick

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

The fact is it’s dry and looks to continue to be dry. Been that way since like July. There is just no big weather makers in the area for the last 5+ months and I don’t really see that changing for a while.  Most of the area is in a moderate or severe drought status for a reason. 

we lost an inch from 00z but this map is something you would see in those famously bad winters like 01-02, 22-23, 19-20.

[Ji]

@mitchnickthis is what a real snow chart looks like

from this time last year

[IronTy]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

The fact is it’s dry and looks to continue to be dry. Been that way since like July. There is just no big weather makers in the area for the last 5+ months and I don’t really see that changing for a while.  Most of the area is in a moderate or severe drought status for a reason. 

That's what I've been saying.  Outside of thunderstorms, how many 1.5" rain events have we had this year?  The odds that were going to break the streak and get 1"+ qpf just so happening to line up as a snow event seems too good to be true.  But at least this winter we've proven we can do cold still.  

[Chris78]

43 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Does that mean we finally get the rockin' February?

That's what I said a few days ago.....

[Ji]

Got one positive posts. Cansips shows a cold Canada for next December and a very wet southern stream. Getting a cold Canada in a moderate Nino is gold. Next winter looks epic

[Blizzard of 93]

12z EPS day 10 to 15 still looks workable and day 15 ends on a good note as well.

It’s just a matter of time until something trackable shows on the Op run again.

[Weather Will]

To clarify, when I posted the phase 6 graphics, I was not canceling winter, but rather pointing out that this not conducive to a mid January cold and snowy period.  Even JB said this is a red flag....

I am in the "let's see something within 5 days on more than one model camp" before I get excited about any winter weather.

[Weather Will]

People hate the snow maps, but on quick glance at the WB 12Z EPS show last no chance of snow over the next week.  Hopefully, this will look better by next Sunday for the following week.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

People hate the snow maps, but on quick glance at the WB 12Z EPS show last no chance of snow over the next week.  Hopefully, this will look better by next Sunday for the following week.

Exactly, the window opens early NEXT week…

[dailylurker]

I've always been in the "no snow is like snow at home" until I spent nearly a week on the Tug. In that time I witnessed nearly 100" of snowfall. I spent time there. I went grocery shopping, went to dispensaries, went on hikes (on snowmobile trails lol). It was like i lived there. I wasn't in a hotel. I was in a house (Airbnb). It made the experience a lot like getting 100" at home without being snowed in for a month. I stayed in Pulaski one night for the mega band. Nearly 4 feet fell overnight. By 9am the town was fully open. I highly suggest any snow lover do a week on the Tug. F our shitty climo lol

[Ji]

Exactly, the window opens early NEXT week…

Yea not sure why he is showing snow maps from now through the end of a torch lol