CAPE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Is the GFS a serious model anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, snowfan said: We need to work on your build up and delivery. You get so excited and then....kaboom. not good for such a seasoned member of the board. Dude, come on. Stop it. We need to work on your reasoning. It's happened like once or twice in like 100 runs. If you saw that map and H5, you would have thought we were going to get creamed 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Either way, it's not going to happen, but that would be agonizing. I'd rather a miss than that shit H5 was a near carbon copy which is crazy surprising. It would take so little from the last 2 runs to hit the 95 corridor. Low bombs and is basically vertically stacked before it pulls away. Like you, I totally didn't expect this run wtf gfs lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Either way, it's not going to happen, but that would be agonizing. I'd rather a miss than that shit If it actually did play out in the way the GFS advertises, it would seem to me like it would trend north, and the DC/Maryland people would get 18-24" while Richmond to MBY gets 8-12" Just climo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: There ever been a time when SoMd got two feet and the I-95 corridor got 3 inches? Lol We will rise again!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Seems like every model pretty much has a bimodal distribution of members OTS vs nearby, with significant uncertainty, and the deterministics are just honing in on different peaks of that distribution 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Kuchera to the end: That is brutal. Cutoff holy crap 6 inches to 2 ft 50 miles south. Ok that’s fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Don't get me wrong, it's a good run. I'm just saying if it played out verbatim like that, I'd kill kittens. 14 in Fredericksburg and like 3 for me. 26" in Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, LongRanger said: the last VA bullseye at this range wound up at State College I was thinking the same... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Don't get me wrong, it's a good run. I'm just saying if it played out verbatim like that, I'd kill kittens. 14 in Fredericksburg and like 3 for me. I’ll take care of the bunnies in Bob Chills old yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Don't get me wrong, it's a good run. I'm just saying if it played out verbatim like that, I'd kill kittens. 14 in Fredericksburg and like 3 for me. I have a big house with plenty of extra room...you're welcome to come down and get snowed in for a week if it verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 the last VA bullseye at this range wound up at State CollegeReally need the EURO to show a storm soon but otherwise agree with the larger point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 There were looks that reminded me of 2016 but now that snow map makes me think of the dreaded 2018 miss! - It is the GFS anyways.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I expect zero confirmation from the Euro. AI in an hour or so will tell the tale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, IronTy said: I have a big house with plenty of extra room...you're welcome to come down and get snowed in for a week if it verifies. It'll be me, bf and the umbrella 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Is the GFS a serious model anymore? No 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: There ever been a time when SoMd got two feet and the I-95 corridor got 3 inches? Lol Better than smoking cirrus a'la the Euro. A lot better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, stormtracker said: It'll be me, bf and the umbrella As long as you bring a snow shovel with you as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Imagine the mood in here if we were in the Southeast forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: That is brutal. Cutoff holy crap 6 inches to 2 ft 50 miles south. Ok that’s fine There is zero chance of that being the actual outcome. And definitely not the 12z run lol. The 12z CMC is more realistic. Too bad it is kind of a crappy model itself. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That is brutal. Cutoff holy crap 6 inches to 2 ft 50 miles south. Ok that’s fine I think there's a reason why model verification scores are based on 500mb, not surface depictions. That just wouldn't happen IRL. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, CAPE said: There is zero chance of that being the actual outcome. And definitely not the 12z run lol. The 12z CMC is more realistic. Too bad it is kind of a crappy model itself. I'm giving the euro to either help us out or the gfs to cave by like 12z tomm. I said 0z tonight, but i'm going to give those features a chance to come into a better obs network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Bunch of nova drama queens in here lol 0z models tonight are where the real deal is 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: @Bob Chill ALERT! NUKED! Of course I want the last 2 runs verbatim lol but it seems so unlikely.... Our land is on the east side of smith mtn at the base and our temporary home is at the base on the west side. I've wondered since we moved here what a true noreaster with CCB would look like on both sides. Smith is the first big rise in the western piedmont. About 1,200 vertical. That has to have some orograpic influence with strong E/NE flow. Sure likes to wring out drizzle during April easterlies lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, stormtracker said: I'm giving the euro to either help us out or the gfs to cave by like 12z tomm. I said 0z tonight, but i'm going to give those features a chance to come into a better obs network. We just cant know at this point. I doubt we will have reasonable agreement among guidance until Thursday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 This is how model-hour goes down at my house. 21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Can I ask a question? What prevents this exactly from coming up the coast? That is back to back runs it just seems to slam into a brick wall and then is kicked out to sea. What prevents it? and can what is preventing it still be fixed up in time as we are about 100hrs out and time is running out. Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It'll be me, bf and the umbrella We are all hoping to see this picture this weekend. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I’ve said it a million times, but speak it into existence like Oprah says. “You get a foot and you get a foot everyone gets a snowstorm!” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, IronTy said: This is how model-hour goes down at my house. “Dad I gotta shit” 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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