bncho Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, jrodd321 said: Can you post the 18z snowmap for comparison? 18z only runs to 144,s orry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 what's the time frame here of heaviest snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 14 minutes ago, bncho said: So I may have underestimated the Euro, we actually DO get a foot. Ji is happy now. We all know the Richmond jackpot always verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, bncho said: 18z only runs to 144,s orry. Damn you’re right my bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 This looked interesting but it was a nothing burger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 what's the time frame here of heaviest snows?Sat night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 EPS went crazy! 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Um... no thanks... h/t @snowchill in the Richmond thread. I'll take the snow of course... but not this lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Um... no thanks... h/t @snowchill in the Richmond thread My goodness.. all time record low in DC if it happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Not sure if anyone posted, but those CPC temperature outlooks... woof 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 57 minutes ago, Ji said: lol Sorry next time I’ll wait for my models to come out Next time tell us it’s a freaking foot lol Why would I lie? Oh you banking on Kuchera. I mean, that’s one way to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 LWX talks about upcoming storm... They are kinda taking it seriously By the end of the week and especially heading into the weekend, the upper-level pattern becomes quite active in both the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. Model guidance is still very much all over the place in regards to exactly what comes of this, but there is growing consensus for an area of low pressure developing across the south-central/southeastern CONUS. Depending on when and where that area of low pressure develops, as well as where it goes after it does develop, there could be significant wintry precipitation across our area sometime next weekend. Uncertainty remains with this system, as there is some potential that strong Arctic high pressure could suppress the system south. However, that high (~1040 mb Arctic high) is also a source of very cold air; this likely remains in place due to a favorable -AO/-NAO blocking pattern. Meanwhile, there are an increasing amount of ensemble members that bring significant wintry precipitation to the region due to an amplified southern stream influence - something we have seen very little of so far this winter (typical of La Nina). The low may not escape as easily out to sea given the -NAO block. The nearby steady source of very cold air and the amplified southern stream occurring in tandem are what raise some red flags for significant wintry precipitation potential this weekend. The latest ensemble guidance is certainly on the upward trend in that regard, but that doesn`t mean it can`t swing back in the other direction. It will be key to monitor this threat closely in the coming days as the different parts of the system become better sampled by surface and upper air obs. Current model spread indicates an axis of significant snow/ice could be as far north as Upstate New York, or as far south as the Carolinas 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 0z EPS has a strong signal for a storm around 162hr With so much CAD, it's likely going to either be a wintery storm, or slide south. Much less chance for rain, especially with AO near -3, and PNA neutral or positive around the coldest few days of the year, on average -AO is our best pattern for winter snow.. doesn't mean it can't slide to the south though. But a significant NW cut trend is unlikely. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The gfs ai continues to cut nw although it’s much colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The fact the one gfs shows a cutter and the other one shows surpressed tells you all you need to know about America’s long term flagship model future 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6z GFS is continuing to do one of these things.. it's at least showing significant southern jet stream energy, which is something we haven't seen for several months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 WB 6Z GFS is still south but further north than 0Z. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 6z GFS is continuing to do one of these things.. it's at least showing significant southern jet stream energy, which is something we haven't seen for several months. It holds the sw vort back so it's just overrunning and that can't come north. Though 6z run did weaken the Midwest high pressure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 If you get a chance, take a look at the Cfs2 on Tropical Tidbits. It has the fun going thru March. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Magnolia Delaware Extended forecast as of now shows possible Saturday 1-3". Sunday 1-3". I like the conservative forecast till Thursday and see how things shake up. One thing to remember is the GFS showed this past storm to be suppressed before the other models. If I'm not mistaken I did not see the 1050H on any of the current maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS is still south but further north than 0Z. That's one heck of an ice storm for the whole southern states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6z GFS almost has a 50/50 low.. We have a strong composite in our biggest snowstorms for DC/Balt for negative 500mb anomalies in the 3 areas I marked with a black line. In the last few days it's come a little closer. We need that Great Lakes trough to trend south or SW. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I like our position after the morning runs significantly more than before them last night. Seeing the Euro and Euro Ai together with positive steps from the CMC and GFS is very good. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 My flight to Puerto Rico next Monday morning looking “interesting” as this weekend’s forecast trending for East Coast snows. Pre-dawn 17.6 imby/6am today may feel warm by the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6z euro ai amps things up more than last couple runs. Hard to say with TT plots, but maybe snow-ice-snow? Tons of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 WBAL mentioning the threat for the weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 6z euro ai amps things up more than last couple runs. Hard to say with TT plots, but maybe snow-ice-snow? Tons of precip. With a 1040mb High to the north as it starts.. close to blizzard 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 6z euro ai amps things up more than last couple runs. Hard to say with TT plots, but maybe snow-ice-snow? Tons of precip. Has a second major snow mid next week. What a weenie run. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 6z euro ai amps things up more than last couple runs. Hard to say with TT plots, but maybe snow-ice-snow? Tons of precip. Love to see a snow map for that. Looks juiced up!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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