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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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1 hour ago, H2O said:

Did everyone get ridiculously hyped over a model run a weekish away that had the perfect setup for snow knowing things would change?  Again?  
 

A model run with just the right ridging and wave spacing where if one little thing goes wrong with PV spacing, trough depth, trailing energy and ULL pass?  Those variables and the ones I didn’t mention that all need to be exactly as shown today?

 

 

It’s not on the weekend either.

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59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but that system had an STJ wave associated with it. That was a miller a/b hybrid. It definitely phased late. So similar but not a pure NS miller b like this. These are even more precarious for us. 

Yea I remember that vort being a compact fireball at h5 riding up from the southwest.

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

If this look on the ICON does nothing it’ll probably never snow in the mid-Atlantic again 

H5 to far south? Hard for me to see that and it not boom…

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

GFS is going to end up winning this one. Rare that it happens. But it is going to this time. 

last time we had a big storm possibility the GFS scored a coup against all the other models... including the stubborn Euro.

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