January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

Is the GFS a serious model anymore?

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

We need to work on your build up and delivery. You get so excited and then....kaboom. not good for such a seasoned member of the board.

Dude, come on.  Stop it.  We need to work on your reasoning. It's happened like once or twice in like 100 runs.  If you saw that map and H5, you would have thought we were going to get creamed

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Either way, it's not going to happen, but that would be agonizing.  I'd rather a miss than that shit

H5 was a near carbon copy which is crazy surprising. It would take so little from the last 2 runs to hit the 95 corridor. Low bombs and is basically vertically stacked before it pulls away. Like you, I totally didn't expect this run wtf gfs lol

[Ephesians2]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Either way, it's not going to happen, but that would be agonizing.  I'd rather a miss than that shit

If it actually did play out in the way the GFS advertises, it would seem to me like it would trend north, and the DC/Maryland people would get 18-24" while Richmond to MBY gets 8-12" Just climo. 

[IronTy]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

There ever been a time when SoMd got two feet and the I-95 corridor got 3 inches? Lol

We will rise again!!!

[LordBaltimore]

Seems like every model pretty much has a bimodal distribution of members OTS vs nearby, with significant uncertainty, and the deterministics are just honing in on different peaks of that distribution

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Kuchera to the end:

That is brutal.  Cutoff holy crap 6 inches to 2 ft 50 miles south.  Ok that’s fine

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Don't get me wrong, it's a good run.  I'm just saying if it played out verbatim like that, I'd kill kittens.  14 in Fredericksburg and like 3 for me.

26" in Richmond 

[snowmagnet]

1 minute ago, LongRanger said:

the last VA bullseye at this range wound up at State College

I was thinking the same...

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Don't get me wrong, it's a good run.  I'm just saying if it played out verbatim like that, I'd kill kittens.  14 in Fredericksburg and like 3 for me.

I’ll take care of the bunnies in Bob Chills old yard. 

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Don't get me wrong, it's a good run.  I'm just saying if it played out verbatim like that, I'd kill kittens.  14 in Fredericksburg and like 3 for me.

I have a big house with plenty of extra room...you're welcome to come down and get snowed in for a week if it verifies.  

[NorthArlington101]

the last VA bullseye at this range wound up at State College

Really need the EURO to show a storm soon but otherwise agree with the larger point

[midatlanticweather]

There were looks that reminded me of 2016 but now that snow map makes me think of the dreaded 2018 miss!  - It is the GFS anyways..

 

[stormtracker]

I expect zero confirmation from the Euro.  AI in an hour or so will tell the tale

[stormtracker]

Just now, IronTy said:

I have a big house with plenty of extra room...you're welcome to come down and get snowed in for a week if it verifies.  

It'll be me, bf and the umbrella

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Is the GFS a serious model anymore?

No 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

There ever been a time when SoMd got two feet and the I-95 corridor got 3 inches? Lol

Better than smoking cirrus a'la the Euro.  A lot better.

[IronTy]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It'll be me, bf and the umbrella

As long as you bring a snow shovel with you as well...

[snowmagnet]

Imagine the mood in here if we were in the Southeast forum.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

That is brutal.  Cutoff holy crap 6 inches to 2 ft 50 miles south.  Ok that’s fine

There is zero chance of that being the actual outcome. And definitely not the 12z run lol. The 12z CMC is more realistic. Too bad it is kind of a crappy model itself.

[Ephesians2]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That is brutal.  Cutoff holy crap 6 inches to 2 ft 50 miles south.  Ok that’s fine

I think there's a reason why model verification scores are based on 500mb, not surface depictions. That just wouldn't happen IRL. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, CAPE said:

There is zero chance of that being the actual outcome. And definitely not the 12z run lol. The 12z CMC is more realistic. Too bad it is kind of a crappy model itself.

I'm giving the euro to either help us out or the gfs to cave by like 12z tomm.  I said 0z tonight, but i'm going to give those features a chance to come into a better obs network.

[jlewis1111]

Bunch of nova drama queens in here lol  0z models tonight are where the real deal is 

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

@Bob Chill ALERT! NUKED!

Of course I want the last 2 runs verbatim lol but it seems so unlikely.... 

Our land is on the east side of smith mtn at the base and our temporary home is at the base on the west side. I've wondered since we moved here what a true noreaster with CCB would look like on both sides. Smith is the first big rise in the western piedmont. About 1,200 vertical. That has to have some orograpic influence with strong E/NE flow. Sure likes to wring out drizzle during April easterlies lol

[CAPE]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm giving the euro to either help us out or the gfs to cave by like 12z tomm.  I said 0z tonight, but i'm going to give those features a chance to come into a better obs network.

We just cant know at this point. I doubt we will have reasonable agreement among guidance until Thursday.

[IronTy]

This is how model-hour goes down at my house.  

[Duca892]

Can I ask a question? What prevents this exactly from coming up the coast? That is back to back runs it just seems to slam into a brick wall and then is kicked out to sea. What prevents it? and can what is preventing it still be fixed up in time as we are about 100hrs out and time is running out. Thanks. 

[TowsonWeather]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It'll be me, bf and the umbrella

We are all hoping to see this picture this weekend.

[Benjamn3]

I’ve said it a million times, but speak it into existence like Oprah says. 
 

“You get a foot and you get a foot everyone gets a snowstorm!” 
 

 

[Benjamn3]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

This is how model-hour goes down at my house.  

“Dad I gotta shit”