January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[DaleCityDave]

Direct hit right now is no good. Slow movement towards us and lots and lots of digital snow is as good as it gets so by the time it moves and the numbers inevitably dwindle we are still in business!

[stormtracker]

Premature FOLKS-alation.   Rare.  But anyway, close enough.  that jog east kills us.

[winter_warlock]

Plzzz come north!!

[NorthArlington101]

 

really a minimal change. Keeps us entertained another suite 

[stormtracker]

[LeesburgWx]

Norfolk nuked lol

[stormtracker]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Plzzz come north!!

It doesn't

[peribonca]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Premature FOLKS-alation.   Rare.  But anyway, close enough.  that jog east kills us.

Still going to be pretty good on the snow maps

[winter_warlock]

Close enough to keep us interested

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Premature FOLKS-alation.   

We’ve all been there. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It doesn't

Damnnn.  .. but we got time!!

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It's probably a moot point because the GFS is an ass of a model, but give me that h5 on some of the other major models and I bet we are dancing. If the euro even moves in that direction some at 18z or 0z, it would be a nice development. 

[Buddy1987]

@Bob Chill ALERT! NUKED!

[Ephesians2]

Snow map is basically identical to 12z

[Shad]

stalls then goes southwest before pushing east and out.....good luck with this verifying but cool to look at

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, peribonca said:

Still going to be pretty good on the snow maps

Prob like 4-6?  @NorthArlington101 will hook us up soon

[NorthArlington101]

Kuchera to the end:

[ravensrule]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

We’ve all been there. 

Speak for yourself. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

really a minimal change. Keeps us entertained another suite 

I'm more interested in that swath over central VA just shifting north over us. I think that's almost more possible than the low itself bombing and scooting north. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ephesians2 said:

Snow map is basically identical to 12z

Either way, it's not going to happen, but that would be agonizing.  I'd rather a miss than that shit

[IronTy]

I guess I'm not seeing what isn't to like about this run?  Ok it didn't show 13ft of snow area-wide but other than that it looks better to me.  

[DDweatherman]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Kuchera to the end:

That wide VA swath creeping north... just saying

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Kuchera to the end:

Map looks like a guitar or a.....broom. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

As I mentioned earlier, if we can have a decent shot at a relatively minor 2-4" or 3-5" cold powder, I cannot complain too much (though obviously would take a HECS if it would happen!).  Seriously, I would like to at least get into a position where we're more assured to be on the western edge and still able to get some halfway decent snow amounts.

[LeesburgWx]

Take away. GFS is not wavering and this run was even slightly better/closer to what we need. Euro will be OTS again and we continue this on repeat at 00z

[snowfan]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Premature FOLKS-alation.   Rare.  But anyway, close enough.  that jog east kills us.

We need to work on your build up and delivery. You get so excited and then....kaboom. not good for such a seasoned member of the board.

[mitchnick]

Actually, cut snowfall in half from 12z for mby, BWI, DCA and even SBY.

[LongRanger]

the last VA bullseye at this range wound up at State College

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I guess I'm not seeing what isn't to like about this run?  Ok it didn't show 13ft of snow area-wide but other than that it looks better to me.  

Don't get me wrong, it's a good run.  I'm just saying if it played out verbatim like that, I'd kill kittens.  14 in Fredericksburg and like 3 for me.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Kuchera to the end:

There ever been a time when SoMd got two feet and the I-95 corridor got 3 inches? Lol