January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[aldie 22]

NAM sorta kinda won the last storm maybe we are working our way up from the bottom as far as winners for each storm. GFS is next up!!

[ravensrule]

10 minutes ago, batmanbrad said:

this kinda reminds me of the movie Spaceballs...  suck, suck, suck!

I have watched different movies with those last 3 words. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Winning. Though would have changed smoking causes weenie anguish haha 

Edits for the next storm.

[87storms]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs trend. 

 

Complicated might be the new way we get snow now. I’m in.

[EHoffman]

Just now, 87storms said:

Complicated might be the new way we get snow now. I’m in.

Lol "new" way?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

NAM sorta kinda won the last storm maybe we are working our way up from the bottom as far as winners for each storm. GFS is next up!!

It really only won it on thermals not much else, lol

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

NAM sorta kinda won the last storm maybe we are working our way up from the bottom as far as winners for each storm. GFS is next up!!

Well sorta.  Was dogshit on QPF, but those thermals can't be beat.  Lesson learned when the NAM throwing thermal red flags.

[stormtracker]

Well, starting now through Sat, good thing is...this'll be an instant death on the models.   Money panels would come in in like 15 mins or less

[Bob Chill]

Euro AI is mostly a hold with a tick east... dangit

[Benjamn3]

Explaining to my coworkers all the things that have to go right for this weekend to get snow. 

[stormtracker]

Not one change on the Euro so far.  Carbon copy.   Of course, it's early yet...

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro AI is mostly a hold with a tick east... dangit

Until it gets on board I'm not sure we can take this threat seriously.

[AlexD1990]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Not one change on the Euro so far.  Carbon copy.   Of course, it's early yet...

[Nomz]

2 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

Explaining to my coworkers all the things that have to go right for this weekend to get snow. 

Thankfully Apple Weather backed off the 7-8 “forecast” they had earlier

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Not one change on the Euro so far.  Carbon copy.   Of course, it's early yet...

If the AI didn't change this probably won't either, smh

[stormtracker]

I have to keep switching back to make sure I actually have the 6z up because 12z looks exactly like it so far.  36h

[stormtracker]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

If the AI didn't change this probably won't either, smh

Correct

[DDweatherman]

It’s pretty accurate that the AI Euro is usually a good precursor to the op. 

[Weather Will]

27 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

For those interested. 

Went from 12% hit at 6Z to 30% at 12Z.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO AI says GFS is full of it.

[TSSN+]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO AI says GFS is full of it.

We should honestly stop looking at the gfs. I don’t think it’s got anything right this winter literally. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

We should honestly stop looking at the gfs. I don’t think it’s got anything right this winter literally. 

It’s really moved itself to the bottom of the totem pole. 

[stormtracker]

57.  Absolutely no change at h5

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I have to keep switching back to make sure I actually have the 6z up because 12z looks exactly like it so far.  36h

the dr literally says no to everything the GFS says yes too. uncanny

[Weather Will]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

We should honestly stop looking at the gfs. I don’t think it’s got anything right this winter literally. 

BAM and WB must hack GFS to get up their subscription rates for February.

[EHoffman]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO AI says GFS is full of it.

Brutal for our RIchmond friends too

[Imgoinhungry]

We should honestly stop looking at the gfs. I don’t think it’s got anything right this winter literally. 

Is it giving too much weight to a certain data set that is causing it to be so inaccurate?


.

[jlewis1111]

euro did shit with the last storm til 0z tonight. 0z runs tonight was when things drastically changed last week for this past weekend's storm. Tonight 0z will be key anything now Is just noise imo

[ravensrule]

Just now, EHoffman said:

Brutal for our RIchmond friends too

Who the hell has friends in Richmond. 

[Hyphnx]

Just now, ravensrule said:

Who the hell has friends in Richmond. 

Hi