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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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7 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Not too jazzed on next weekend rn. Ridge axis to the west is prob too close and the setup requires near perfection with timing as the window to crawl the coast is super tight.  Time will tell. Beyond that is looking more ripe. Western ridge axis retros and a strong west based NAO block would force NS shortwaves south of us and far enough west for some amplification. Split flow potential as well. I REALLY like this look....

image.thumb.png.d3bf136aa6ff2c194e878af3d7706f8e.png

 

Eta: all 3 global ens are lock step. Confidence booster...

image.thumb.png.6a19a8888f1b621fb4c2baa9a44da4ac.png

 

image.thumb.png.9db47f0b9ffd2e58b4d1a7a6a00ea20a.png

 

 

 

It is a great look. The problem(as you know) is these advertised 'big potential' h5 patterns at this range tend to end up somewhat different the closer we get. This coming weekend looked full of potential 5-6 days ago on the ensembles. The the analogs reflected the potential. So as always, we keep checking run-by-run, day-by day, and see how the guidance evolves. It would be nice to get some snow in the next 10 days. Early Feb still holds some potential imo. Still a week out.

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Everybody is not paying attention but when they see this shit

Screenshot 2026-01-25 at 6.37.02 PM.png

Might be weenie folklore but it's only fitting that this window is showing back up as our current system is exiting stage right. GEFS is still offshore but beefed up, a lot of monster lows within range.

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