January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[aldie 22]

13 hours ago, high risk said:

           So, the question was whether the AI systems retain info cycle to cycle.      They're independent cycles.

           One word of caution for everyone who is excited to see so many hits in the AI ensembles:   the AI ensembles are very underdispersive on the whole, and this will be an area of research going forward.   I would therefore advise caution when they show high probabilities of an event, as they can show high confidence in the wrong outcome.    

 

This post stuck with me considering the AIs are being so consistent 

[TSSN+]

Euro ai 6z is a weenie run. Smokes us this coming weekend then another hammer a few days later. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO AI upcoming weekend; week from Th.; Total run!!!!!

[GreyHat]

14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

With a 1040mb High to the north as it starts.. close to blizzard

Better than the 1050H, while it will take days for models to home in, it will be interesting to see if that shows back up or if the models are over doing it.

[GreyHat]

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Has a second major snow mid next week. What a weenie run. 

Magnolia Delaware long range has snow in the forecast for 28th.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO AI weekend; Th.; Total run!!!!!

If only. Would be best back to back smokes since 09-10

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO AI upcoming weekend; week from Th.; Total run!!!!!

Meh...disappointing 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How'd i do ji? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Best thing about it is, it gets really cold after the storm.. like single digits or below zero. Then we stay below average probably through the first week of Feb. It would stick around for a long time.

[SnowenOutThere]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO AI upcoming weekend; week from Th.; Total run!!!!!

It’s a good sign for you guys up in Nova and MD if I’m starting to sweat the mixing line down at UVA. Better not happen though because I do NOT want to have to drive up to Nova for this. 

[Maestrobjwa]

6z Euro looking pretty nice at the end. Starting to feel like...as long as we don't have any guidance go the opposite way (more squashed) and have everything at least hold steady today that would be encouraging

[mitchnick]

I'd like to see the Eps shift north.

[Ephesians2]

6z Euro at 144

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Check out the point and click forecast

Saturday

A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 18. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday

A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 19. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[aldie 22]

Really only the AI runs are amped everything else has a southern feel to them. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Really only the AI runs are amped everything else has a southern feel to them. 

Ukmet is in line with the ai models 

[Ji]

WBAL mentioning the threat for the weekend

lol okay

[Ji]

Has a second major snow mid next week. What a weenie run. 

Do you mean the Ai?

[Eskimo Joe]

We're in the historical wheelhouse of the EPS and Euro-AI, and they still show a whopper of a storm. 

[Solution Man]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Check out the point and click forecast

Saturday

A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 18. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday

A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 19. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Bullish 

[Solution Man]

14 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

6z Euro at 144

Benchmark

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ukmet is in line with the ai models 

Not really. It has a far norther storm but gets there differently than the ai gfs. Ai gfs is still primarily a west to east system that just gains some more latitude while the ukmet just rams the primary low up the Ohio valley to our west. 

[SnowenOutThere]

14 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

6z Euro at 144

I believe this would be a better run than the 0z was 

[Ji]

Meh...disappointing 
 
 
 
 
 
 
How'd i do ji? 

Pretty good especially now that a pro met said not to take the Ai seriously!

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Do you mean the Ai?

Yea

[Jebman]

15 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

6z Euro at 144

Penhook's gonna get demolished

[DSF]

I take back everything I've ever said about AI.  It can have all our jobs if it just brings us that snow.

[GreyHat]

17 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

6z Euro at 144

Would a stronger L like 991 push noth?

[SnowenOutThere]

Sad how no matter what the models show it’ll always rain in Gaithersburg 

[BlizzardNole]

1 hour ago, Herb@MAWS said:

My flight to Puerto Rico next Monday morning looking “interesting” as this weekend’s forecast trending for East Coast snows. 
 

Pre-dawn 17.6 imby/6am today may feel warm by the weekend. 

Whoa imagine boarding at -2 F with a thick snowpack and landing in lush vegetation, sun and 83 degrees four hours later 

[Maestrobjwa]

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'd like to see the Eps shift north.

Stolen from the southern forum. Just out to 144, of course