January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

Just now, jrodd321 said:

Can you post the 18z snowmap for comparison?

18z only runs to 144,s orry.

[pazzo83]

what's the time frame here of heaviest snows?

[Amped]

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

So I may have underestimated the Euro, we actually DO get a foot. Ji is happy now.

We all know the Richmond jackpot always verifies.

[jrodd321]

Just now, bncho said:

18z only runs to 144,s orry.

Damn you’re right my bad!

[Ji]

This looked interesting but it was a nothing burger

[Ji]

what's the time frame here of heaviest snows?

Sat night

[Ji]

[bncho]

EPS went crazy!

[yoda]

Um... no thanks... h/t @snowchill in the Richmond thread.  I'll take the snow of course... but not this lol

 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Um... no thanks... h/t @snowchill in the Richmond thread

 

My goodness.. all time record low in DC if it happened 

[Nomz]

 

Not sure if anyone posted, but those CPC temperature outlooks... woof

[stormtracker]

57 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol
Sorry next time I’ll wait for my models to come out

Next time tell us it’s a freaking foot lol

Why would I lie?  Oh you banking on Kuchera.  I mean, that’s one way to do it. 

[winter_warlock]

LWX talks about upcoming storm...

 They are kinda taking it seriously

 

By the end of the week and especially heading into the weekend,
the upper-level pattern becomes quite active in both the
northern and southern branches of the jet stream. Model guidance
is still very much all over the place in regards to exactly
what comes of this, but there is growing consensus for an area
of low pressure developing across the south-central/southeastern
CONUS. Depending on when and where that area of low pressure
develops, as well as where it goes after it does develop, there
could be significant wintry precipitation across our area
sometime next weekend. Uncertainty remains with this system, as
there is some potential that strong Arctic high pressure could
suppress the system south. However, that high (~1040 mb Arctic
high) is also a source of very cold air; this likely remains in
place due to a favorable -AO/-NAO blocking pattern. Meanwhile,
there are an increasing amount of ensemble members that bring
significant wintry precipitation to the region due to an
amplified southern stream influence - something we have seen
very little of so far this winter (typical of La Nina). The low
may not escape as easily out to sea given the -NAO block. The
nearby steady source of very cold air and the amplified southern
stream occurring in tandem are what raise some red flags for
significant wintry precipitation potential this weekend.

The latest ensemble guidance is certainly on the upward trend
in that regard, but that doesn`t mean it can`t swing back in the
other direction. It will be key to monitor this threat closely
in the coming days as the different parts of the system become
better sampled by surface and upper air obs. Current model
spread indicates an axis of significant snow/ice could be as
far north as Upstate New York, or as far south as the Carolinas

[Stormchaserchuck1]

0z EPS has a strong signal for a storm around 162hr

With so much CAD, it's likely going to either be a wintery storm, or slide south. Much less chance for rain, especially with AO near -3, and PNA neutral or positive around the coldest few days of the year, on average

-AO is our best pattern for winter snow.. doesn't mean it can't slide to the south though. But a significant NW cut trend is unlikely. 

[Ji]

The gfs ai continues to cut nw although it’s much colder

[Ji]

The fact the one gfs shows a cutter and the other one shows surpressed tells you all you need to know about America’s long term flagship model future

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6z GFS is continuing to do one of these things.. it's at least showing significant southern jet stream energy, which is something we haven't seen for several months. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS is still south but further north than 0Z.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

6z GFS is continuing to do one of these things.. it's at least showing significant southern jet stream energy, which is something we haven't seen for several months. 

It holds the sw vort back so it's just overrunning and that can't come north. Though 6z run did weaken the Midwest high pressure.

[mitchnick]

If you get a chance, take a look at the Cfs2 on Tropical Tidbits. It has the fun going thru March.

[GreyHat]

Magnolia Delaware 

Extended forecast as of now shows possible Saturday 1-3". Sunday 1-3". I like the conservative forecast till Thursday and see how things shake up.

One thing to remember is the GFS showed this past storm to be suppressed before the other models. If I'm not mistaken I did not see the 1050H on any of the current maps.

[GreyHat]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS is still south but further north than 0Z.

That's one heck of an ice storm for the whole southern states

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6z GFS almost has a 50/50 low.. We have a strong composite in our biggest snowstorms for DC/Balt for negative 500mb anomalies in the 3 areas I marked with a black line. In the last few days it's come a little closer. We need that Great Lakes trough to trend south or SW.