wxmvpete Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: “Insert another Clint Eastwood gif to represent everyone’s face while they try to understand the map” Heh sorry, thought the map legend went over. It shows MSLP and precipitation rate. In this case it shows 12-hr precip rate in mm. 1 mm is roughly 1 cm of snow (obviously ratios will be different, just a general rule of thumb per ECMWF) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Personally, I think that as this storm gets to within hour 120 (tomorrow 18z to 0z maybe 12z) that's when we all got to lock in. I look forward to making a long winded analysis once that happens but until then its not worth it (personally)... yet. lol I hope you’re right but I won’t feel comfortable until about hour 72 or 48 after last years Feb debacle. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 FWIW. From a respected met Mike Masco..about the upcoming storm ANOTHER STORM SIGNAL NEXT WEEKEND? As one storm exits, another is already on the radar. And once again, the AI European model deserves some credit — it sniffed out our most recent storm well before any of the traditional, physics-based guidance. Now the AI-EURO is back, flashing a storm signal for a southern low tracking east across the country NEXT WEEKEND. What the model is showing: Phasing of the northern & southern jet streams over the TN Valley as a northern shortwave diving in and infusing southern energy. This creates a surface low tracking along the arctic boundary in place later this week. We consider this track a classic “Southern Slider” setup with plenty of cold air in place to the north with moisture binding against the gradient. What could go wrong? 1. Too much cold air → storm suppressed south (big snow for the Deep South) 2. No phasing → weak, disorganized system 3. The model is… full of it (and we crowned it too early) Why this could be legit: 1.MJO heading into Phase 8 — historically favorable for eastern U.S. storms 2.Guidance is very bullish on cold air, usually tied to strong thermal gradients 3. Blocking signals showing up on both the West Coast and western Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 52 minutes ago, Heisy said: Not that it matters since it’ll be different at 00z, but I don’t think the euro was coming any farther N than it was at the end of its run. My guess is a light-mod snow event if it played out post 144. There was a shortwave sitting over the lakes that was about shunt everything E. We’ll see how the N stream eventually orients itself. Here is 18z euro vs the Ai to better illustrate… . The good news is both AI models actually went The other way and was more amped at 18z compared to 12. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, wxdude64 said: Looks like a double barreled system? I think it was Gordon Barnes that loved using the term “double barrel.” Maybe Bill Kamal, but I think it was GB. And one of them also often said, “It’s a case of Peter robbing Paul,” referring to a dying Appalachian low transferring too far off the coast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 22 minutes ago, Chris78 said: The good news is both AI models actually went The other way and was more amped at 18z compared to 12. Yeah but never underestimate the possibility a random GL low to ruin things...especially in a nina (that's actually what messed up 12z too). I swear those things just show up at the worst possible times, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I expect a significant change in this threat by or before the 12z runs on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, stormy said: I expect a significant change in this threat by or before the 12z runs on Tuesday. Thanks captain obvious 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Tonight is going to make @diatae go hard and grab a McDonald's McFlurry. Yall ready?!? 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, stormtracker said: Tonight is going to make @diatae go hard and grab a McDonald's McFlurry. Yall ready?!? Bring it on Brother!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Tonight is going to make @diatae go hard and grab a McDonald's McFlurry. Yall ready?!? Hope to wake up to good things. It’s past my bedtime lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 ICON with that wagon back there. Let's see if it comes out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 ICON pushes the Baja Boogie Blast (TM) further east this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 ICON = suppression depression 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 ICON is developing the moisture down south, but kinda looks suppressed so far..but it's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Well, it's the ICON so there's that...but it's a NC weenie dream so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Anyway....on to the sort of Varsity GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, stormtracker said: Well, it's the ICON so there's that...but it's a NC weenie dream so far Poor Terpeast is going to get spooked hopefully he's asleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, aldie 22 said: Poor Terpeast is going to get spooked hopefully he's asleep Ha. I get the concern because suppression is VERY possible...I'd give it 50/50 tbh...but nobody should be panicking this early. Hes solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, it's the ICON so there's that...but it's a NC weenie dream so far Seeing how the system wasn’t even on the 12z run it’s a start. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Everyone get fired up! Sleep is for old people (which I’m one of—LOL). It’s almost our favorite time though. No, not the early bird special at the local Jewish deli (though damn I could use a knish and matzoh ball soup), but it’s….. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 ICON + CMC + GFS combo vs Euro + Euro AI + GFS AI combo i think i know which side i'm taking for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, bncho said: ICON + CMC + GFS combo vs Euro + Euro AI + GFS AI combo i think i know which side i'm taking for now. Better not to take any side till we get closer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, bncho said: ICON + CMC + GFS combo vs Euro + Euro AI + GFS AI combo i think i know which side i'm taking for now. Well everyone is saying the AI models performed the best so that's the side I'm leaning ... For now ...but subject to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 18 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Hope to wake up to good things. It’s past my bedtime lol Don’t forget the prune juice and adult diapers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Better not to take any side till we get closer! I'm having a hard time believing a 1050 high suppresses everything to hell, but maybe some red taggers can counter me there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, bncho said: ICON + CMC + GFS combo vs Euro + Euro AI + GFS AI combo i think i know which side i'm taking for now. This will end well. Yes it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, bncho said: I'm having a hard time believing a 1050 high suppresses everything to hell, but maybe some red taggers can counter me there. Agree. 1050mB tends to draw things north. Seen it hundreds of times…thousands 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 12 minutes ago, bncho said: I'm having a hard time believing a 1050 high suppresses everything to hell, but maybe some red taggers can counter me there. You should believe it. That's a VERY strong high pressure. Suppression here is the main threat to our snow chances. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 0Z Icon still suppressed with the baja energy still not ejecting quite as quickly as you would like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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