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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

snowfan

By snowfan,
in Mid Atlantic

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wxmvpete

wxmvpete

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said:

“Insert another Clint Eastwood gif to represent everyone’s face while they try to understand the map”

Heh sorry, thought the map legend went over. It shows MSLP and precipitation rate. In this case it shows 12-hr precip rate in mm. 1 mm is roughly 1 cm of snow (obviously ratios will be different, just a general rule of thumb per ECMWF)

Screenshot 2026-01-18 210610.png

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stormtracker
stormtracker

Shut the fuck up

MillvilleWx
MillvilleWx

I came in here to see what y'all were thinking about this 12z suite which looks pretty dang good to my trained eye and....... I hope some of y'all received Valium for Christmas. Good lord. 

high risk
high risk

THIS.   Even though our resident third graders want to moan that poor forecasts show that NWP is useless, there are certain patterns that for whatever reason just aren't predictable.   The fact that a

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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Personally, I think that as this storm gets to within hour 120 (tomorrow 18z to 0z maybe 12z) that's when we all got to lock in. I look forward to making a long winded analysis once that happens but until then its not worth it (personally)... yet. 

lol I hope you’re right but I won’t feel comfortable until about hour 72 or 48 after last years Feb debacle. 

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winter_warlock

winter_warlock

Posted
Posted

FWIW. From a respected met Mike Masco..about the upcoming storm

 

ANOTHER STORM SIGNAL NEXT WEEKEND?

As one storm exits, another is already on the radar. And once again, the AI European model deserves some credit — it sniffed out our most recent storm well before any of the traditional, physics-based guidance.

Now the AI-EURO is back, flashing a storm signal for a southern low tracking east across the country NEXT WEEKEND.

What the model is showing:
Phasing of the northern & southern jet streams over the TN Valley as a northern shortwave diving in and infusing southern energy. This creates a surface low tracking along the arctic boundary in place later this week.
We consider this track a classic “Southern Slider” setup with plenty of cold air in place to the north with moisture binding against the gradient.

What could go wrong?
1. Too much cold air → storm suppressed south (big snow for the Deep South)
2. No phasing → weak, disorganized system
3. The model is… full of it (and we crowned it too early)

Why this could be legit:
1.MJO heading into Phase 8 — historically favorable for eastern U.S. storms
2.Guidance is very bullish on cold air, usually tied to strong thermal gradients
3. Blocking signals showing up on both the West Coast and western Atlantic

 

 

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, Heisy said:


Not that it matters since it’ll be different at 00z, but I don’t think the euro was coming any farther N than it was at the end of its run. My guess is a light-mod snow event if it played out post 144. There was a shortwave sitting over the lakes that was about shunt everything E. We’ll see how the N stream eventually orients itself.

Here is 18z euro vs the Ai to better illustrate…

ba279bba5f5178fe5c11a088b98a6472.gif


.

The good news is both AI models actually went The other way and was more amped at 18z compared to 12.

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nw baltimore wx

nw baltimore wx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, wxdude64 said:

Looks like a double barreled system?

I think it was Gordon Barnes that loved using the term “double barrel.” Maybe Bill Kamal, but I think it was GB. And one of them also often said, “It’s a case of Peter robbing Paul,” referring to a dying Appalachian low transferring too far off the coast. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The good news is both AI models actually went The other way and was more amped at 18z compared to 12.

Yeah but never underestimate the possibility a random GL low to ruin things...especially in a nina (that's actually what messed up 12z too). I swear those things just show up at the worst possible times, smh

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Scraff

Scraff

Posted
Posted

Everyone get fired up! Sleep is for old people (which I’m one of—LOL). It’s almost our favorite time though. No, not the early bird special at the local Jewish deli (though damn I could use a knish and matzoh ball soup), but it’s…..

 

IMG_6028.jpeg

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Disc

Disc

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, bncho said:

I'm having a hard time believing a 1050 high suppresses everything to hell, but maybe some red taggers can counter me there.

You should believe it. That's a VERY strong high pressure. Suppression here is the main threat to our snow chances.

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