January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[wxmvpete]

6 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said:

“Insert another Clint Eastwood gif to represent everyone’s face while they try to understand the map”

Heh sorry, thought the map legend went over. It shows MSLP and precipitation rate. In this case it shows 12-hr precip rate in mm. 1 mm is roughly 1 cm of snow (obviously ratios will be different, just a general rule of thumb per ECMWF)

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Personally, I think that as this storm gets to within hour 120 (tomorrow 18z to 0z maybe 12z) that's when we all got to lock in. I look forward to making a long winded analysis once that happens but until then its not worth it (personally)... yet. 

lol I hope you’re right but I won’t feel comfortable until about hour 72 or 48 after last years Feb debacle. 

[winter_warlock]

FWIW. From a respected met Mike Masco..about the upcoming storm

 

ANOTHER STORM SIGNAL NEXT WEEKEND?

As one storm exits, another is already on the radar. And once again, the AI European model deserves some credit — it sniffed out our most recent storm well before any of the traditional, physics-based guidance.

Now the AI-EURO is back, flashing a storm signal for a southern low tracking east across the country NEXT WEEKEND.

What the model is showing:
Phasing of the northern & southern jet streams over the TN Valley as a northern shortwave diving in and infusing southern energy. This creates a surface low tracking along the arctic boundary in place later this week.
We consider this track a classic “Southern Slider” setup with plenty of cold air in place to the north with moisture binding against the gradient.

What could go wrong?
1. Too much cold air → storm suppressed south (big snow for the Deep South)
2. No phasing → weak, disorganized system
3. The model is… full of it (and we crowned it too early)

Why this could be legit:
1.MJO heading into Phase 8 — historically favorable for eastern U.S. storms
2.Guidance is very bullish on cold air, usually tied to strong thermal gradients
3. Blocking signals showing up on both the West Coast and western Atlantic

 

 

[Chris78]

52 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Not that it matters since it’ll be different at 00z, but I don’t think the euro was coming any farther N than it was at the end of its run. My guess is a light-mod snow event if it played out post 144. There was a shortwave sitting over the lakes that was about shunt everything E. We’ll see how the N stream eventually orients itself.

Here is 18z euro vs the Ai to better illustrate…




.

The good news is both AI models actually went The other way and was more amped at 18z compared to 12.

[nw baltimore wx]

1 hour ago, wxdude64 said:

Looks like a double barreled system?

I think it was Gordon Barnes that loved using the term “double barrel.” Maybe Bill Kamal, but I think it was GB. And one of them also often said, “It’s a case of Peter robbing Paul,” referring to a dying Appalachian low transferring too far off the coast. 

[Maestrobjwa]

22 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The good news is both AI models actually went The other way and was more amped at 18z compared to 12.

Yeah but never underestimate the possibility a random GL low to ruin things...especially in a nina (that's actually what messed up 12z too). I swear those things just show up at the worst possible times, smh

[stormy]

I expect a significant change in this threat by or before the 12z runs on Tuesday.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, stormy said:

I expect a significant change in this threat by or before the 12z runs on Tuesday.

Thanks captain obvious 

[stormtracker]

Tonight is going to make @diatae go hard and grab a McDonald's McFlurry.  

Yall ready?!?

[winter_warlock]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Tonight is going to make @diatae go hard and grab a McDonald's McFlurry.  

Yall ready?!?

Bring it on Brother!!!

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Tonight is going to make @diatae go hard and grab a McDonald's McFlurry.  

Yall ready?!?

Hope to wake up to good things. It’s past my bedtime lol 

[stormtracker]

ICON with that wagon back there.  Let's see if it comes out

[bncho]

ICON pushes the Baja Boogie Blast (TM) further east this run

[bncho]

ICON = suppression depression

[stormtracker]

ICON is developing the moisture down south, but kinda looks suppressed so far..but it's coming

[stormtracker]

Well, it's the ICON so there's that...but it's a NC weenie dream so far

[stormtracker]

Anyway....on to the sort of Varsity GFS

[aldie 22]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Well, it's the ICON so there's that...but it's a NC weenie dream so far

Poor Terpeast is going to get spooked hopefully he's asleep 

[stormtracker]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

Poor Terpeast is going to get spooked hopefully he's asleep 

Ha. I get the concern because suppression is VERY possible...I'd give it 50/50 tbh...but nobody should be panicking this early.  Hes solid

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, it's the ICON so there's that...but it's a NC weenie dream so far

Seeing how the system wasn’t even on the 12z run it’s a start. 

[Scraff]

Everyone get fired up! Sleep is for old people (which I’m one of—LOL). It’s almost our favorite time though. No, not the early bird special at the local Jewish deli (though damn I could use a knish and matzoh ball soup), but it’s…..

 

[bncho]

ICON + CMC + GFS combo vs Euro + Euro AI + GFS AI combo

i think i know which side i'm taking for now.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

ICON + CMC + GFS combo vs Euro + Euro AI + GFS AI combo

i think i know which side i'm taking for now.

Better not to take any side till we get closer!

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

ICON + CMC + GFS combo vs Euro + Euro AI + GFS AI combo

i think i know which side i'm taking for now.

Well everyone is saying the AI models performed the best so that's the side I'm leaning ... For now ...but subject to change 

[ravensrule]

18 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Hope to wake up to good things. It’s past my bedtime lol 

Don’t forget the prune juice and adult diapers. 

[bncho]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Better not to take any side till we get closer!

I'm having a hard time believing a 1050 high suppresses everything to hell, but maybe some red taggers can counter me there.

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

ICON + CMC + GFS combo vs Euro + Euro AI + GFS AI combo

i think i know which side i'm taking for now.

This will end well. Yes it will 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

I'm having a hard time believing a 1050 high suppresses everything to hell, but maybe some red taggers can counter me there.

Agree.  1050mB tends to draw things north.  Seen it hundreds of times…thousands 

[Disc]

12 minutes ago, bncho said:

I'm having a hard time believing a 1050 high suppresses everything to hell, but maybe some red taggers can counter me there.

You should believe it. That's a VERY strong high pressure. Suppression here is the main threat to our snow chances.

[Alfoman]

0Z Icon still suppressed with the baja energy still not ejecting quite as quickly as you would like