January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Actually a good bit drier, 

LP shifts from off OBX to the middle of the Atlantic. Can’t tell if it’s just resolving where to put the low badly or if it’s real. Who knows. Still snows 

[DDweatherman]

There was more of that kicker feature, but honestly didn’t flatten it THAT much. Small minutia differences though have big implication for this. Feels like a move towards the wrong direction. 

[bncho]

yall are overanalyzing this GFS run lol. it's basically just noise

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

but when I say it... I get three X just like the family Feud... lol

Pay no attention to that.  People weenie me for saying "guys" this morning and I was right.   Not sure why people are afraid to X or weenie me, lol.  That admin tag don't mean shit

[NorthArlington101]

not bad. Includes nothing from earlier in the week 

[Shad]

overall a step in the wrong direction.....we know where this will end up

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

yall are overanalyzing this GFS run lol. it's basically just noise

Yeah, not sure why people are analyzing a weather model on a weather board.  

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

not bad. Includes nothing from earlier in the week 

Not bad at all...just a smidge drier

from NW to about 40 miles south of DC

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

yall are overanalyzing this GFS run lol. it's basically just noise

Given it's performance I'd lean more towards this being a step towards the other models. Low looks further east to me.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

LP shifts from off OBX to the middle of the Atlantic. Can’t tell if it’s just resolving where to put the low badly or if it’s real. Who knows. Still snows 

I edited it..it's a smidge drier, especially just S and E of DC

[CAPE]

NW crew not liking this run, but still close to something good. Not much different in my yard.

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

yall are overanalyzing this GFS run lol. it's basically just noise

The noise was supposed to shift NW by 100 miles

[CAPE]

[stormtracker]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Given it's performance I'd lean more towards this being a step towards the other models.

I wouldn't. Precip was just a little drier on the S and E side from DC toward St Mary's

[stormtracker]

Just now, CAPE said:

NW crew not liking this run, but still close to something good. Not much different in my yard.

Yup, just like I said when bncho whined about overanalyzing.   It's fine, but NW crew did get drier.   Not worth worryng about.

[WxUSAF]

Shortwave wasn’t as sharp/diggy down south. 

[Amped]

Only about 22mb weaker off cape cod this run.  It's like it's rolling the dice with the laws of physics every run.

[87storms]

1 minute ago, Shad said:

overall a step in the wrong direction.....we know where this will end up

Eastern shore is basically a different climate than i81, so I could absolutely see how this ends up a Richmond/Norfolk to OC special. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I wouldn't. Precip was just a little drier on the S and E side from DC toward St Mary's

I guess 0z will be telling...if it gets drier then it could be backing off

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

NW crew not liking this run, but still close to something good. Not much different in my yard.

Why don't you leave us alone!

[bncho]

Jeez, y'all. It's a hold. There's very minor differences at h5, it phases a little worse than 12z but four days out it's a hold.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup, just like I said when bncho whined about overanalyzing.   It's fine, but NW crew did get drier.   Not worth worryng about.

It’s a fine run as it shows but didn’t like the changes upstairs. The “kicker” showed up and the vort wasn’t as diggy or negative. Need 0z to stop bleeding or it’ll end up like the others. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

Jeez, y'all. It's a hold. There's very minor differences at h5, it phases a little worse than 12z but four days out it's a hold.

who said the difference were huge?  Who is jumping off a ledge.  Like me and 5 other knowledgeable people said the same thing.  Nobody said it was any major movement.  What are you talking about?

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Shortwave wasn’t as sharp/diggy down south. 

Look at this guy with all the egghead language.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Jeez, y'all. It's a hold. There's very minor differences at h5, it phases a little worse than 12z but four days out it's a hold.

It's a hold. But the bigger thing is it's still on it's own so this analysis may not matter tomorrow, lol

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

It’s a fine run as it shows but didn’t like the changes upstairs. The “kicker” showed up and the vort wasn’t as diggy or negative. Need 0z to stop bleeding or it’ll end up like the others. 

Yup, that's all we were saying.  Man, accurately describing a run when it doesn't go super positive and people complaining is crazy.

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yup, that's all we were saying.  Man, accurately describing a run when it doesn't go super positive and people complaining is crazy.

Don’t make me weenie you. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, ravensrule said:

Don’t make me weenie you. 

Do it.  You'll be sitting this one out like the Ravens and the playoffs.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yup, that's all we were saying.  Man, accurately describing a run when it doesn't go super positive and people complaining is crazy.

There was more space last run for it to turn and was shaper. Now you can see 18z the energy all kinda connected not allowing the lead wave to do its thing as much. Need to get that yellow connector energy out of there. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Do it.  You'll be sitting this one out like the Ravens and the playoffs.

Wow that’s way below the belt, like basically 12” below.