January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GEFS is a fairly substantial tick for a more substantive system Monday. Waiting for individual members to see if it's steered by a few outliers.

Definitely outliers lol - but still worth watching

[Weather Will]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GEFS is a fairly substantial tick for a more substantive system Monday. Waiting for individual members to see if it's steered by a few outliers.

WB 12Z GEFS

[bncho]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Definitely outliers lol - but still worth watching

That’s both a bad thing and a good thing IMO. On one hand it says that there’s not much of a chance, but on the other it says there’s still some significant potential with this system. Definitely still needs to be watched.

[paulythegun]

The GFS "Includes Sleet" snowmap is about to be EPIC. Will add to this post when it loads. 

UPDATE: it was NOT epic.

 

[Duca892]

Not only is the GFS just awful it’s completely boring the next 15 days lmfao 

[bncho]

juiced up system at that golden timeframe of Jan 28 on the GFS, but it cuts. Nice to see a big storm consistently show up at that timeframe, though.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

juiced up system at that golden timeframe of Jan 28 on the GFS, but it cuts. Nice to see a big storm consistently show up at that timeframe, though.

Cold and dry; warm and wet. The norm. 

[Weather Will]

January is not delivering as promised but there are signs of a more active jet stream by the last week of the month.  Whether the storm track is white or wet TBD.   One cautionary note:  the pattern keeps looking good two weeks out.  Need to see if it holds this time around.

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Cold and dry; warm and wet. The norm. 

Classic La Nina.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Classic La Nina.

Interesting how we haven't had to have the "too warm" discussion for awhile. The mediocre snow totals from last year to now can't be blamed on that! Unless the elephant is responsible for the SIX Ninas we've had over the last 10 years...

IF we can't get things going late Jan on for whatever reason (not saying we won't so don't jump on me--I said IF), we reeaaalllly need next year's niño to deliver. We can't afford to have both niños of the decade not produce.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Interesting how we haven't had to have the "too warm" discussion for awhile. The mediocre snow totals from last year to now can't be blamed on that! Unless the elephant is responsible for the SIX Ninas we've had over the last 10 years...

Half of those ninas had the too warm discussion.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Interesting how we haven't had to have the "too warm" discussion for awhile. The mediocre snow totals from last year to now can't be blamed on that! Unless the elephant is responsible for the SIX Ninas we've had over the last 10 years...

IF we can't get things going late Jan on for whatever reason (not saying we won't do don't jump on me--I said IF), we reeaaalllly need next year's niño to deliver. We can't afford to have both niños of the decade not produce.

Just give me a weak, west based El Nino. The last few El Ninos that we've had have either been basin wide or east based. Neither are good for snow lovers.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Half of those ninas had the too warm discussion.

Yeah I know...but I was talking more about how we had so many of them. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just give me a weak, west based El Nino. The last few El Ninos that we've had have either been basin wide or east based. Neither are good for snow lovers.

How about a modoki?  Now, I don't know much about developing ninos...but I wonder when we'll know where this one is gonna set up?

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just give me a weak, west based El Nino. The last few El Ninos that we've had have either been basin wide or east based. Neither are good for snow lovers.

No, moderate Niño.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, mitchnick said:

No, moderate Niño.

This. 2018-19 nino was a wimp that never fully coupled and got interfered with a lot...

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This. 2018-19 nino was a wimp that never fully coupled and got interfered with a lot...

I'm pretty sure the PDO was the culprit there.

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This. 2018-19 nino was a wimp that never fully coupled and got interfered with a lot...

If a Nino happens next year it would be more likely to couple with the atmosphere, especially with it being at least moderate 

[Chris78]

21 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

January is not delivering as promised but there are signs of a more active jet stream by the last week of the month.  Whether the storm track is white or wet TBD.   One cautionary note:  the pattern keeps looking good two weeks out.  Need to see if it holds this time around.

Maybe February will deliver. 

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Maybe February will deliver. 

February 2027 should be rockin! I should probably stock up on beer now. 

[mitchnick]

Gefs like Sunday into Monday fwiw. 24hr snowfall. 

[WEATHER53]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

6z EuroAI cozying up to the idea too.

Jesus another two weeks away .  We are now living in silly land entirely

I beg you all that pay  for this crap to stop and address the issues with the vendors 

 

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

It seems like the cold hasn't been the issue at all this year. No real torch. We just don't do coastal storms anymore for some reason? 

I’m wondering how much weaker the Gulf Stream has actually gotten and what effect that might be having on moisture not drawing up from the south and along the east coast.

Matt used to comment (where in the world did he go and why ??) 15 years ago how models  did so much better in ninos.  He was correct and that correctness has un fortunately increased.  Models are virtually helpless in Miller B dominated low pressure placements, movements and developments in Nina,no stj winters  for mid Atlantic 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I'm pretty sure the PDO was the culprit there.

You might be able to say the same for 23-24 too.

[Eskimo Joe]

24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This. 2018-19 nino was a wimp that never fully coupled and got interfered with a lot...

 

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

No, moderate Niño.

Fair point. Moderate, west based El Nino.

[Ji]

wow--euro loves the SE Ridge in long range. Hopefully a blip

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

wow--euro loves the SE Ridge in long range. Hopefully a blip

It's been a blip all season

[Ji]

congrats DMV!

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gefs like Sunday into Monday fwiw. 24hr snowfall. 

Cape storm wont quite die on the GFS/GEFS

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

It's been a blip all season

Yes...but around this time of winter in a nina when you get to the end of Jan and head into Feb, a SE ridge would be a typical occurrence in a nina (and the cold we've had so far on the front end is also typival) Now it doesn't have to mean anything, of course...but it is something to keep an eye on.