NorthArlington101 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS is a fairly substantial tick for a more substantive system Monday. Waiting for individual members to see if it's steered by a few outliers. Definitely outliers lol - but still worth watching 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS is a fairly substantial tick for a more substantive system Monday. Waiting for individual members to see if it's steered by a few outliers. WB 12Z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Definitely outliers lol - but still worth watching That’s both a bad thing and a good thing IMO. On one hand it says that there’s not much of a chance, but on the other it says there’s still some significant potential with this system. Definitely still needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The GFS "Includes Sleet" snowmap is about to be EPIC. Will add to this post when it loads. UPDATE: it was NOT epic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Not only is the GFS just awful it’s completely boring the next 15 days lmfao 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago juiced up system at that golden timeframe of Jan 28 on the GFS, but it cuts. Nice to see a big storm consistently show up at that timeframe, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, bncho said: juiced up system at that golden timeframe of Jan 28 on the GFS, but it cuts. Nice to see a big storm consistently show up at that timeframe, though. Cold and dry; warm and wet. The norm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago January is not delivering as promised but there are signs of a more active jet stream by the last week of the month. Whether the storm track is white or wet TBD. One cautionary note: the pattern keeps looking good two weeks out. Need to see if it holds this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Cold and dry; warm and wet. The norm. Classic La Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Classic La Nina. Interesting how we haven't had to have the "too warm" discussion for awhile. The mediocre snow totals from last year to now can't be blamed on that! Unless the elephant is responsible for the SIX Ninas we've had over the last 10 years... IF we can't get things going late Jan on for whatever reason (not saying we won't so don't jump on me--I said IF), we reeaaalllly need next year's niño to deliver. We can't afford to have both niños of the decade not produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Interesting how we haven't had to have the "too warm" discussion for awhile. The mediocre snow totals from last year to now can't be blamed on that! Unless the elephant is responsible for the SIX Ninas we've had over the last 10 years... Half of those ninas had the too warm discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Interesting how we haven't had to have the "too warm" discussion for awhile. The mediocre snow totals from last year to now can't be blamed on that! Unless the elephant is responsible for the SIX Ninas we've had over the last 10 years... IF we can't get things going late Jan on for whatever reason (not saying we won't do don't jump on me--I said IF), we reeaaalllly need next year's niño to deliver. We can't afford to have both niños of the decade not produce. Just give me a weak, west based El Nino. The last few El Ninos that we've had have either been basin wide or east based. Neither are good for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Half of those ninas had the too warm discussion. Yeah I know...but I was talking more about how we had so many of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Just give me a weak, west based El Nino. The last few El Ninos that we've had have either been basin wide or east based. Neither are good for snow lovers. How about a modoki? Now, I don't know much about developing ninos...but I wonder when we'll know where this one is gonna set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Just give me a weak, west based El Nino. The last few El Ninos that we've had have either been basin wide or east based. Neither are good for snow lovers. No, moderate Niño. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, mitchnick said: No, moderate Niño. This. 2018-19 nino was a wimp that never fully coupled and got interfered with a lot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: This. 2018-19 nino was a wimp that never fully coupled and got interfered with a lot... I'm pretty sure the PDO was the culprit there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: This. 2018-19 nino was a wimp that never fully coupled and got interfered with a lot... If a Nino happens next year it would be more likely to couple with the atmosphere, especially with it being at least moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 21 minutes ago, Weather Will said: January is not delivering as promised but there are signs of a more active jet stream by the last week of the month. Whether the storm track is white or wet TBD. One cautionary note: the pattern keeps looking good two weeks out. Need to see if it holds this time around. Maybe February will deliver. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Maybe February will deliver. February 2027 should be rockin! I should probably stock up on beer now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Gefs like Sunday into Monday fwiw. 24hr snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 hours ago, mitchnick said: 6z EuroAI cozying up to the idea too. Jesus another two weeks away . We are now living in silly land entirely I beg you all that pay for this crap to stop and address the issues with the vendors 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: It seems like the cold hasn't been the issue at all this year. No real torch. We just don't do coastal storms anymore for some reason? I’m wondering how much weaker the Gulf Stream has actually gotten and what effect that might be having on moisture not drawing up from the south and along the east coast. Matt used to comment (where in the world did he go and why ??) 15 years ago how models did so much better in ninos. He was correct and that correctness has un fortunately increased. Models are virtually helpless in Miller B dominated low pressure placements, movements and developments in Nina,no stj winters for mid Atlantic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 14 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I'm pretty sure the PDO was the culprit there. You might be able to say the same for 23-24 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: This. 2018-19 nino was a wimp that never fully coupled and got interfered with a lot... 26 minutes ago, mitchnick said: No, moderate Niño. Fair point. Moderate, west based El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago wow--euro loves the SE Ridge in long range. Hopefully a blip 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, Ji said: wow--euro loves the SE Ridge in long range. Hopefully a blip It's been a blip all season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago congrats DMV! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gefs like Sunday into Monday fwiw. 24hr snowfall. Cape storm wont quite die on the GFS/GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: It's been a blip all season Yes...but around this time of winter in a nina when you get to the end of Jan and head into Feb, a SE ridge would be a typical occurrence in a nina (and the cold we've had so far on the front end is also typival) Now it doesn't have to mean anything, of course...but it is something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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