January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Def a good pattern for SWFE shaping up for end of January.  Hopefully we can cash in a big qpf one that hammers the whole forum. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I spy a little -PNA the last week of Jan. I hope models are still biased too low on PNA

I see it briefly at 264hr. The 360hr 0z EPS has a favorable look

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Def a good pattern for SWFE shaping up for end of January.  Hopefully we can cash in a big qpf one that hammers the whole forum. 

6z EuroAI cozying up to the idea too.

[Ji]

6z EuroAI cozying up to the idea too.

Not much cushion lol

[Terpeast]

30 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I see it briefly at 264hr. The 360hr 0z EPS has a favorable look

Thats what I’m hoping for, a temporary transient -pna as an incoming wave undercuts across the sw towards here. 

[bncho]

That's a massive signal considering it's 330 hours out.

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

Not much cushion lol

It shifted south from 0z, so quit complaining. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It shifted south from 0z, so quit complaining. 

That is like telling water to be dry. 

[Terpeast]

Just saw the Euro weeklies, good trends up until mid-February. Think we may be able to extend our window until then if it holds!

[Heisy]

The day 5-6 event is growing some legs

there’s a couple decent members in there. Depends on the angle of the shortwave. Wouldn’t take much for this to get juicier








.

[Scraff]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just saw the Euro weeklies, good trends up until mid-February. Think we may be able to extend our window until then if it holds!

Got to get something done soon. Damn sun angle season is right around the corner. 

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Got to get something done soon. Damn sun angle season is right around the corner. 

Yeah, since early Dec this season has been a slow bleed through time even though not “torchy”. Hoping we cash in during our most favorable climo. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Real nice -AO showing up at the end of 6z GFS ensembles

Correlation with temps (default is positive so -ao is opposite)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, since early Dec this season has been a slow bleed through time even though not “torchy”. Hoping we cash in during our most favorable climo. 

It's been a Nina STJ.. too bad because we are having our 2nd below average temp Winter in a row. Last -PDO decadal cycle was also cold and dry. 

[winter_warlock]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Should have waited for the Euro. 

Lmaoo yeah cause that's gonna happen 

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

6z Nam getting on board for tomorrow night...sort of.

9z Srefs like the idea of rain ending as snow too.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2026011306&fh=384&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[RevWarReenactor]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, since early Dec this season has been a slow bleed through time even though not “torchy”. Hoping we cash in during our most favorable climo. 

It seems like the cold hasn't been the issue at all this year. No real torch. We just don't do coastal storms anymore for some reason? 

[JenkinsJinkies]

11 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

No real torch

Just like last year they keep getting can kicked.

[Terpeast]

18 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

It seems like the cold hasn't been the issue at all this year. No real torch. We just don't do coastal storms anymore for some reason? 

Yeah, the lack of STJ in a nina. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, the lack of STJ in a nina. 

The juice is coming... hopefully

[dallen7908]

10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, & 90th PCTL snow fall totals (inches) for GFS ensemble, EPS, and Canada at DCA over the next 10 (15) days. 

PCTL GFS          EPS         Canadian               GFS              EPS        Canadian

10        0.1            0.1              0.0                       0.3                0.3               0.2

25.      0.4.          0.2              0.1                       0.7                0.7                0.5

50       1.0           0.5               0.4                     2.3                1.9                 0.9

75        2.2          1.0               0.9                     5.1                  5.2                2.0

90       3.4           1.7               1.6                     8.6                  8.1                3.1  

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The juice is coming... hopefully

I do like the timeframe after Jan 25. Not sure about the Jan 22-25 window, any storm there looks like it wants to cut. But hope we can get a follow up after. 

[dailylurker]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I do like the timeframe after Jan 25. Not sure about the Jan 22-25 window, any storm there looks like it wants to cut. But hope we can get a follow up after. 

That can you just kicked is going to hit JI in the face lol

[mitchnick]

This way out there and low skill (unlike the precision of the Euro ), but the Cfs2 has been hammering for weeks a well AN precip March as reflected in the attached map. Looks Niño to me. But IF correct and we can get it falling at the start of the month with the most favorable temps, we might have a shot at some measurable March snows which have disappeared since 2018. I know, I know,...snows in general have disappeared as well, but after a decent string of March snows starting in 2014, they have generally been MIA since 2018; arguably, 2019 did have an event that was small at all airports and IAD had a few inches in 2022, but they were not area wide.

[bncho]

Just now, mitchnick said:

This way out there and low skill (unlike the precision of the Euro ), but the Cfs2 has been hammering a well AN precip March as reflected in the attached map for weeks. Looks Niño to me. But IF correct and we can get it falling at the start of the month with the most favorable temps, we might have a shot at some measurable March snows which have disappeared since 2018. I know, I know,...snows in general have disappeared as well, but after a decent string of March snows starting in 2014, they have generally been MIA since 2018; arguably, 2019 did have an event that was small at all airports and IAD had a few inches in 2022, but they were not area wide.

I've been consistently saying that the tropical forcing in MJO 8-1-2 and death of La Nina will help with a more canonical Nino response into February and March. 

[NorthArlington101]

12z ICON has a worse outcome than the 00z ICON for our area on Sunday but the system looks a lot more like an actual storm now. Imagine it trended better at h5 but it's the ICON so not that interested in digging in lol

[TSSN+]

You know there’s nothing happening when gfs is rollin and this place is dead. 

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

You know there’s nothing happening when gfs is rollin and this place is dead. 

I am waiting to post something positive.....

[NorthArlington101]

GEFS is a fairly substantial tick for a more substantive system Monday. Waiting for individual members to see if it's steered by a few outliers.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

February before an El Nino the next year