SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Def a good pattern for SWFE shaping up for end of January. Hopefully we can cash in a big qpf one that hammers the whole forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: I spy a little -PNA the last week of Jan. I hope models are still biased too low on PNA I see it briefly at 264hr. The 360hr 0z EPS has a favorable look 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 7 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Def a good pattern for SWFE shaping up for end of January. Hopefully we can cash in a big qpf one that hammers the whole forum. 6z EuroAI cozying up to the idea too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 6z EuroAI cozying up to the idea too.Not much cushion lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 30 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I see it briefly at 264hr. The 360hr 0z EPS has a favorable look Thats what I’m hoping for, a temporary transient -pna as an incoming wave undercuts across the sw towards here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago That's a massive signal considering it's 330 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 13 minutes ago, Ji said: Not much cushion lol It shifted south from 0z, so quit complaining. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It shifted south from 0z, so quit complaining. That is like telling water to be dry. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just saw the Euro weeklies, good trends up until mid-February. Think we may be able to extend our window until then if it holds! 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago The day 5-6 event is growing some legs there’s a couple decent members in there. Depends on the angle of the shortwave. Wouldn’t take much for this to get juicier . 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 13 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Just saw the Euro weeklies, good trends up until mid-February. Think we may be able to extend our window until then if it holds! Got to get something done soon. Damn sun angle season is right around the corner. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Scraff said: Got to get something done soon. Damn sun angle season is right around the corner. Yeah, since early Dec this season has been a slow bleed through time even though not “torchy”. Hoping we cash in during our most favorable climo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Real nice -AO showing up at the end of 6z GFS ensembles Correlation with temps (default is positive so -ao is opposite) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 19 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, since early Dec this season has been a slow bleed through time even though not “torchy”. Hoping we cash in during our most favorable climo. It's been a Nina STJ.. too bad because we are having our 2nd below average temp Winter in a row. Last -PDO decadal cycle was also cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 5 hours ago, mitchnick said: Should have waited for the Euro. Lmaoo yeah cause that's gonna happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 hours ago, mitchnick said: 6z Nam getting on board for tomorrow night...sort of. 9z Srefs like the idea of rain ending as snow too. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2026011306&fh=384&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, since early Dec this season has been a slow bleed through time even though not “torchy”. Hoping we cash in during our most favorable climo. It seems like the cold hasn't been the issue at all this year. No real torch. We just don't do coastal storms anymore for some reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 11 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: No real torch Just like last year they keep getting can kicked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: It seems like the cold hasn't been the issue at all this year. No real torch. We just don't do coastal storms anymore for some reason? Yeah, the lack of STJ in a nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, the lack of STJ in a nina. The juice is coming... hopefully 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, & 90th PCTL snow fall totals (inches) for GFS ensemble, EPS, and Canada at DCA over the next 10 (15) days. PCTL GFS EPS Canadian GFS EPS Canadian 10 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 25. 0.4. 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 50 1.0 0.5 0.4 2.3 1.9 0.9 75 2.2 1.0 0.9 5.1 5.2 2.0 90 3.4 1.7 1.6 8.6 8.1 3.1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: The juice is coming... hopefully I do like the timeframe after Jan 25. Not sure about the Jan 22-25 window, any storm there looks like it wants to cut. But hope we can get a follow up after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I do like the timeframe after Jan 25. Not sure about the Jan 22-25 window, any storm there looks like it wants to cut. But hope we can get a follow up after. That can you just kicked is going to hit JI in the face lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago This way out there and low skill (unlike the precision of the Euro ), but the Cfs2 has been hammering for weeks a well AN precip March as reflected in the attached map. Looks Niño to me. But IF correct and we can get it falling at the start of the month with the most favorable temps, we might have a shot at some measurable March snows which have disappeared since 2018. I know, I know,...snows in general have disappeared as well, but after a decent string of March snows starting in 2014, they have generally been MIA since 2018; arguably, 2019 did have an event that was small at all airports and IAD had a few inches in 2022, but they were not area wide. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, mitchnick said: This way out there and low skill (unlike the precision of the Euro ), but the Cfs2 has been hammering a well AN precip March as reflected in the attached map for weeks. Looks Niño to me. But IF correct and we can get it falling at the start of the month with the most favorable temps, we might have a shot at some measurable March snows which have disappeared since 2018. I know, I know,...snows in general have disappeared as well, but after a decent string of March snows starting in 2014, they have generally been MIA since 2018; arguably, 2019 did have an event that was small at all airports and IAD had a few inches in 2022, but they were not area wide. I've been consistently saying that the tropical forcing in MJO 8-1-2 and death of La Nina will help with a more canonical Nino response into February and March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 58 minutes ago Share Posted 58 minutes ago 12z ICON has a worse outcome than the 00z ICON for our area on Sunday but the system looks a lot more like an actual storm now. Imagine it trended better at h5 but it's the ICON so not that interested in digging in lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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