January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Def a good pattern for SWFE shaping up for end of January.  Hopefully we can cash in a big qpf one that hammers the whole forum. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I spy a little -PNA the last week of Jan. I hope models are still biased too low on PNA

I see it briefly at 264hr. The 360hr 0z EPS has a favorable look

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Def a good pattern for SWFE shaping up for end of January.  Hopefully we can cash in a big qpf one that hammers the whole forum. 

6z EuroAI cozying up to the idea too.

[Ji]

6z EuroAI cozying up to the idea too.

Not much cushion lol

[Terpeast]

30 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I see it briefly at 264hr. The 360hr 0z EPS has a favorable look

Thats what I’m hoping for, a temporary transient -pna as an incoming wave undercuts across the sw towards here. 

[bncho]

That's a massive signal considering it's 330 hours out.

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

Not much cushion lol

It shifted south from 0z, so quit complaining. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It shifted south from 0z, so quit complaining. 

That is like telling water to be dry. 

[Terpeast]

Just saw the Euro weeklies, good trends up until mid-February. Think we may be able to extend our window until then if it holds!

[Heisy]

The day 5-6 event is growing some legs

there’s a couple decent members in there. Depends on the angle of the shortwave. Wouldn’t take much for this to get juicier








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[Scraff]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just saw the Euro weeklies, good trends up until mid-February. Think we may be able to extend our window until then if it holds!

Got to get something done soon. Damn sun angle season is right around the corner. 

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Got to get something done soon. Damn sun angle season is right around the corner. 

Yeah, since early Dec this season has been a slow bleed through time even though not “torchy”. Hoping we cash in during our most favorable climo. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Real nice -AO showing up at the end of 6z GFS ensembles

Correlation with temps (default is positive so -ao is opposite)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, since early Dec this season has been a slow bleed through time even though not “torchy”. Hoping we cash in during our most favorable climo. 

It's been a Nina STJ.. too bad because we are having our 2nd below average temp Winter in a row. Last -PDO decadal cycle was also cold and dry. 

[winter_warlock]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Should have waited for the Euro. 

Lmaoo yeah cause that's gonna happen 

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

6z Nam getting on board for tomorrow night...sort of.

9z Srefs like the idea of rain ending as snow too.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2026011306&fh=384&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1