January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Think I'll refrain from looking into this one for a couple days and might take a break from the past 4+ days of tracking. 

Dude you keep taking breaks but you help keep this place tolerable. You really gonna let Ji win? 

[CAPE]

Half the 12z GEFS members have some snow for central/eastern areas on Thursday. Too bad the EPS and GEPS have little to nothing lol.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS teleconnections look good except PNA around the 3rd week and it is moving back toward neutral last week of the month. 

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There is some ignorance here when it comes to interpreting the 'value' of mean snowfall. That's why I would rather not see posts about it until we are within 4-5 days of a persistent threat among guidance. Keep it in the digital snow thread until then.

Agree.  They aren't a useless tool IMO, you can glean some things from them as long as you look under the hood and understand the why behind them  But that isn't what most people do, they just look at some 15 day mean and make judgements.  

[bncho]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS teleconnections look good except PNA around the 3rd week and it is moving back toward neutral last week of the month. 

Just due to the seasonal trend, I would expect that -2 PNA to correct to around -1 to neutral.

[CAPE]

58 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Check out that mean 2m 24-hr min, and at 360 hours to boot. 

 

This would be following our big snowstorm.

[Maestrobjwa]

35 minutes ago, bncho said:

Dude you keep taking breaks but you help keep this place tolerable. You really gonna let Ji win? 

Lol Listen everybody gotta do what's best for their mental health!

[NorthArlington101]

HM is honking late Jan / early Feb for the best chance as a KU since 2022. He's been quiet lately but has come back from the dead (seemingly) on one of his channels. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

HM is honking late Jan / early Feb for the best chance as a KU since 2022. He's been quiet lately but has come back from the dead (seemingly) on one of his channels. 

Someone got a KU in 2022?

[bncho]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Someone got a KU in 2022?

Mid-late January, 2022, I think it was too warm for most cities but interior NY and maybe even Boston got a lot of snow 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Someone got a KU in 2022?

Probably NJ coast and the northeast. Think that’s the one I went to Atlantic City for. 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

Mid-late January, 2022, I think it was too warm for most cities but interior NY and maybe even Boston got a lot of snow 

Nah it was a late development miller b. 

[AlexD1990]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Nah it was a late development miller b. 

that was a fun storm. one of the few times it pays to be s and e of i95

[anotherman]

HM is honking late Jan / early Feb for the best chance as a KU since 2022. He's been quiet lately but has come back from the dead (seemingly) on one of his channels. 

Please tell me it’s the good HM and not Henry Margusity

[Ji]

16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

HM is honking late Jan / early Feb for the best chance as a KU since 2022. He's been quiet lately but has come back from the dead (seemingly) on one of his channels. 

oh no we can kicking till Feb:) 

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

oh no we can kicking till Feb:) 

Can I kick you into February? 

[Paleocene]

26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

HM is honking late Jan / early Feb for the best chance as a KU since 2022. He's been quiet lately but has come back from the dead (seemingly) on one of his channels. 

Where is he active? Used to read his stuff. His blue sky account doesn't have anything about what you mention.

[Terpeast]

27 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

HM is honking late Jan / early Feb for the best chance as a KU since 2022. He's been quiet lately but has come back from the dead (seemingly) on one of his channels. 

Got a link?

[NorthArlington101]

11 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Where is he active? Used to read his stuff. His blue sky account doesn't have anything about what you mention.

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Got a link?

Folks can PM me if they really wanna know the server name and find it themselves - it’s a Discord server and the screenshot was shared by folks I don’t think are messing with me. Discord is much weenier than here imo so I’m surprised that’s where he’d opt to pop in but I believe he diversified into that space when Twitter flipped to X. 

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Can I kick you into February? 

Kick him out of the forum 

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Folks can PM me if they really wanna know the server name and find it themselves - I’m not actually in the server he’s in but he’s in but it’s a Discord server and the screenshot was shared by folks I don’t think are messing with me. Discord is much weenier than here imo so I’m surprised that’s where he’d opt to pop in but I believe he diversified into that space when Twitter flipped to X. 

Ok I thought he was on Twitter/X. I’ll pass on discord though, too many apps too little time. Thanks though!

[Maestrobjwa]

37 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Nah it was a late development miller b. 

Yuck...you know, I'm not sure I like the idea of a KU in a nina UNLESS there's a way to avoid this outcome. Now I know he's in NJ so it's better for them, but...I don't know.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

Dude you keep taking breaks but you help keep this place tolerable. You really gonna let Ji win? 

I concur. His posts have really improved recently. The youngs are gonna need to keep this place relevant and high quality going forward.

As for Ji, meh, he can easily be ignored, but he is a fixture here like it or not lol.

[Alfoman]

AIGFS trending the right way for the CAPE storm 

 

[bncho]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I concur. His posts have really improved recently. The youngs are gonna need to keep this place relevant and high quality going forward.

As for Ji, meh, he can easily be ignored, but he is a fixture here like it or not lol.

He's definitely going to be one of the main forces that keep this place high-quality and relevant, no doubt about that.

Ji is just a troll. But I guess the argument could be made that he makes AmWX, well, AmWX.

[Redmorninglight]

1/29/22 near cape May point, NJ
About 14”. Hope HM is on to something.


.

[CAPE]

GFS has a bit of snow across the region for the so called Cape storm. Definite improvement in the upper levels though.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

GFS has a bit of snow across the region for the so called Cape storm. Definite improvement in the upper levels.

Wow...not even considering the surface, that's quite a change in the right direction at 500-mb!  From a positively tilted trough to neutral, almost negative, and notably sharper.  Not sure if it's occurring "too late", we'd probably need that farther west a tad, I would guess.  Also, is that some hint of interaction with the closed center around northern Hudson Bay?  Looks like "streamers" of vort coming down into the main trough of interest.

[TSSN+]

Almost a banger here just need a bit more south. 
 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Almost a banger here just need a bit more south. 
 

 

A nice simple way to get something. Let's see if the general idea survives to Saturday