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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I'M Tired Boss Tired Pepe GIF - I'm tired boss Tired boss ...

Think I'll refrain from looking into this one for a couple days and might take a break from the past 4+ days of tracking. 

Dude you keep taking breaks but you help keep this place tolerable. You really gonna let Ji win? 

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17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There is some ignorance here when it comes to interpreting the 'value' of mean snowfall. That's why I would rather not see posts about it until we are within 4-5 days of a persistent threat among guidance. Keep it in the digital snow thread until then.

Agree.  They aren't a useless tool IMO, you can glean some things from them as long as you look under the hood and understand the why behind them  But that isn't what most people do, they just look at some 15 day mean and make judgements.  

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10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS teleconnections look good except PNA around the 3rd week and it is moving back toward neutral last week of the month. 

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Just due to the seasonal trend, I would expect that -2 PNA to correct to around -1 to neutral.

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16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

HM is honking late Jan / early Feb for the best chance as a KU since 2022. He's been quiet lately but has come back from the dead (seemingly) on one of his channels. 

oh no we can kicking till Feb:) 

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26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

HM is honking late Jan / early Feb for the best chance as a KU since 2022. He's been quiet lately but has come back from the dead (seemingly) on one of his channels. 

Where is he active? Used to read his stuff. His blue sky account doesn't have anything about what you mention.

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11 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Where is he active? Used to read his stuff. His blue sky account doesn't have anything about what you mention.

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Got a link?

Folks can PM me if they really wanna know the server name and find it themselves - it’s a Discord server and the screenshot was shared by folks I don’t think are messing with me. Discord is much weenier than here imo so I’m surprised that’s where he’d opt to pop in but I believe he diversified into that space when Twitter flipped to X. 

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6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Folks can PM me if they really wanna know the server name and find it themselves - I’m not actually in the server he’s in but he’s in but it’s a Discord server and the screenshot was shared by folks I don’t think are messing with me. Discord is much weenier than here imo so I’m surprised that’s where he’d opt to pop in but I believe he diversified into that space when Twitter flipped to X. 

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Ok I thought he was on Twitter/X. I’ll pass on discord though, too many apps too little time. Thanks though!

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1 hour ago, bncho said:

Dude you keep taking breaks but you help keep this place tolerable. You really gonna let Ji win? 

I concur. His posts have really improved recently. The youngs are gonna need to keep this place relevant and high quality going forward.

As for Ji, meh, he can easily be ignored, but he is a fixture here like it or not lol.

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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I concur. His posts have really improved recently. The youngs are gonna need to keep this place relevant and high quality going forward.

As for Ji, meh, he can easily be ignored, but he is a fixture here like it or not lol.

He's definitely going to be one of the main forces that keep this place high-quality and relevant, no doubt about that.

Ji is just a troll. But I guess the argument could be made that he makes AmWX, well, AmWX.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

GFS has a bit of snow across the region for the so called Cape storm. Definite improvement in the upper levels.

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Wow...not even considering the surface, that's quite a change in the right direction at 500-mb!  From a positively tilted trough to neutral, almost negative, and notably sharper.  Not sure if it's occurring "too late", we'd probably need that farther west a tad, I would guess.  Also, is that some hint of interaction with the closed center around northern Hudson Bay?  Looks like "streamers" of vort coming down into the main trough of interest.

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