NorthArlington101 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, LeesburgWx said: How many more improvements can be had before it’s enough? I've been hearing improvement for 48 hours now and still not there We’re pretty capped on this storm IMO to someone maaybeee getting to 8” if the ULL pass is ideal. There are probably things that can be done to try and better lockdown an area-wide 2-4”, but I’m not sure we can improve much on the 12z offerings from the GFS/Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: It’s an improvement but not enough Yeah, its better but wouldn’t do it if it went beyond 84 is my weenie guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yeah, its better but wouldn’t do it if it went beyond 84 is my weenie guess. Nam at 84 is pretty much never right so still got many runs of the Nam before it even has a clue.. maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Convective feedback error. Jumps the low 300 miles east of Hatteras over a thunderstorm cluster. Thats the NAM we've come to know over the years. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: Speaking of which do you have any resources on storms like this? I got stuff like the December events (jet steak WAA FGEN) figured out mentally when tracking but not really anything like this where it seems all vorticity driven and how that ends up producing snowfall. Would love it if you could explain those differences or recommend some reading At a birthday party and then watching eagles game so I can’t look up a ton of stuff but off the top of my head this reminds me of a storm in January 2001. That one worked out. IIRC it was about 3-4” around DC and northern VA and 4-8” across much of Maryland. And if my memory serves very similar. It was around Jan 20 2001 I think. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 If anyone cares 18Z ICON has nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: If anyone cares 18Z ICON has nothing. Thank you Chuck. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: If anyone cares 18Z ICON has nothing. We do not, thank you 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: At a birthday party and then watching eagles game so I can’t look up a ton of stuff but off the top of my head this reminds me of a storm in January 2001. That one worked out. IIRC it was about 3-4” around DC and northern VA and 4-8” across much of Maryland. And if my memory serves very similar. It was around Jan 20 2001 I think. your snowstorm memory is kind of wild... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Rgem further west and a little deeper than Nam I believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Rgem trough may be too broad, idk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 13 minutes ago, Weather Will said: If anyone cares 18Z ICON has nothing. It has a very weird solution (not that ANY of the models show a "normal" storm). It pretty much has the vort lobe which all other models have takeover get killed off by one in southern Canada... which seems odd. However, I think that it did improve H5 wise and was generally further south so if it didn't have that progression it would've been Euro or GFS like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Well guys the GFS, a slightly better model than the ICON, is running. Hopefully it shows 18-39” of snow. Jk, just want a hold or a change in a positive direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Rgem trough may be too broad, idk. Seems better than the NAM, but I don't think it'll do what we need ultimately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Rgem trough may be too broad, idk. It almost appears similar to the Icon with it washing out the vort which the GFS and Euro make our storm from. If that happens as depicted its game over, and with that only being 4 days away we should know sooner than later whos right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Seems better than the NAM, but I don't think it'll do what we need ultimately Could perhaps be interesting (maybe?) but it appears the NS and SS waves are too separated from each other and too positively tilted. But again, the RGEM way out in range so whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ok, some small slight changes early on with the GFS is the s/w that we await to dive is coming down a little further west...just a little Funny cause on Nam and icon that piece is barely up over the NE tip of MN while gfs touching sw MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Seeing heights/ridging whatever out front a bit higher vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Funny cause on Nam and icon that piece is barely up over the NE tip of MN while gfs touching sw MN Maybe I phrased that wrong. I meant the initial piece on the west side. That swirlie thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Funny cause on Nam and icon that piece is barely up over the NE tip of MN while gfs touching sw MN What we need to dig ain't digging enough so far. Seems just short of 12z attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Actually kinda looks better than 12z at H5 so far. S.w digs to same latitude, but slightly further west 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 no snow for most on the gfs I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Actually kinda looks better than 12z at H5 so far. S.w digs to same latitude, but slightly further westWhatever we need to get 3-4 inches. Thanks for the play by play. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 While closed at 500mb and a bit west, the trough is also a bit broader and the shortwave out in front robs the best dynamics. It's largely a whiff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, bncho said: step back on 18z gfs Gonna be a bit north, but lets see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Go figure. Surface looks worse tho 12z Surface was better. This run, H5 is better. I dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Actually kinda looks better than 12z at H5 so far. S.w digs to same latitude, but slightly further west It's either slower than 12z or gunna be not so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, stormtracker said: Go figure. Surface looks worse tho 12z Surface was better. This run, H5 is better. I dunno Maybe 18z too positively tilted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, mitchnick said: It's either slower than 12z or gunna be not so good. It's not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Gonna need the inverted trough thing with the low offshore NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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