January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

Euro suite won't come around, if at all, until Monday. 

[winter_warlock]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI storm 1

Not really pissing my pants over that lol

[bncho]

18z Euro's trough was deeper, more neutrally titled, and more compact compared to 12z. Might not show it on the surface but it's better than 12z.

[eduggs]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I think “kicker” is an unfortunate misnomer for the thing being talked about. It’s not so much “kicking” the wave east as it is lowering heights behind the wave that prevents it from digging further south and going negative tilt at the right time for us. I think that’s what is meant. 

I don't think the "kicker" is really negatively interacting much with the lead wave. Typically in fact a lead wave will amplify a trof structure if it's downstream of another wave embedded in the longwave trof. The bigger issue IMO is the ULL in Quebec and its interactions with the developing trof.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Euro suite won't come around, if at all, until Monday. 

Ain’t like it’s that far off.  Already came a long way since yesterday. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

I mean the 15th was a rainer until a couple days ago…

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ain’t like it’s that far off.  Already came a long way since yesterday. 

True, but I  was referring, but failed to mention, to a bigger storm of 6"+.

[mitchnick]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean the 15th was a rainer until a couple days ago…

There's still time. Lol

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

You haven't been to a Ravens game.

Oh I have been to almost every single one, yet I have never met anyone as pessimistic as you. Dear lord. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, ravensrule said:

Oh I have been to almost every single one, yet I have never met anyone as pessimistic as you. Dear lord. 

That was a joke. Lighten up!

[CAPE]

18Z Euro is real close. Been incrementally moving in the right direction at h5. Compare this run to 0z.

[mitchnick]

Just now, CAPE said:

18Z Euro is real close. Been incrementally moving in the right direction at h5. Compare this run to 0z.

You can say that again. This close!

[CAPE]

Still not much to be excited about at the surface on the 18z Eps. Need to see some improvement over the next few model cycles. GEFS too.

[JenkinsJinkies]

They're pretty optimistic in the Southern forum.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

They're pretty optimistic in the Southern forum.

LOL

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Still not much to be excited about at the surface on the 18z Eps. Need to see some improvement over the next few model cycles. GEFS too.

As I mentioned earlier with a complex set up like this one ens will take some time to catch up if the op is onto the right idea. Maybe by tomorrow night or Monday. We seen ensembles show 6”+ for a day 5 storm before and it resulted in nothing. Last year prime example. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

They're pretty optimistic in the Southern forum.

They are stoked for the Cape storm, not the one on the 15th fwiw

[Weather Will]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Still not much to be excited about at the surface on the 18z Eps. Need to see some improvement over the next few model cycles. GEFS too.

Yah, I know you hate the snow maps, but they stink for the upcoming work week. No support for a big storm yet.... WB 18Z GEFS and EPS.

[CAPE]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

They are stoked for the Cape storm, not the one on the 15th fwiw

Now that makes sense. I'm gonna deliver down there for sure. 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

As I mentioned earlier with a complex set up like this one ens will take some time to catch up if the op is onto the right idea. Maybe by tomorrow night or Monday. We seen ensembles show 6”+ for a day 5 storm before and it resulted in nothing. Last year prime example. 

And there is a flip side to this, how infrequent that may be. Jan 2024 gave us a pair of NS storms that dropped 2-5” across our area. Ens means were an inch or less up until 24 hours before the event - in both cases. 

BUT the lack of ens support is a red flag that we can look back on if this event fails to materialize for us. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Yah, I know you hate the snow maps, but they stink for the upcoming work week. No support for a big storm yet....

I just look at precip. Its paltry. If the snow maps suck too that means we aren't getting much of anything- no rain either.

[Weather Will]

I also remember how good EPS looked last February a week out. Maybe the reverse will happen this time.

[IronTy]

Just now, Terpeast said:

And there is a flip side to this, how infrequent that may be. Jan 2024 gave us a pair of NS storms that dropped 2-5” across our area. Ens means were an inch or less up until 24 hours before the event. 

I remember the heady days of dec 17, 2009 every time they issued a new storm warning update, the snow total forecast increased another 6" over the last issue.  Seems like a lifetime ago.  I was never so excited to hit the refresh button on my browser.  

 

 

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And there is a flip side to this, how infrequent that may be. Jan 2024 gave us a pair of NS storms that dropped 2-5” across our area. Ens means were an inch or less up until 24 hours before the event - in both cases. 

BUT the lack of ens support is a red flag that we can look back on if this event fails to materialize for us. 

The looks are pretty but we only have the GFS and like 100hr old runs of the ICON. Can’t say we weren’t warned if/when we get nothing 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

We all know the drill, when the GFS is showing a big storm without support in a marginal airmass, it’s most likely not correct. But hey, u never know!!

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

We all know the drill, when the GFS is showing a big storm without support in a marginal airmass, it’s most likely not correct. But hey, u never know!!

But there is some movement toward it vs away, which makes it a little harder to disregard the Gfs completely imho.

[GreyHat]

20 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

They're pretty optimistic in the Southern forum.

That's because the 15th/16th goes of the NC coast and pushed OTS. They will receive snow.

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

But there is some movement toward it vs away, which makes it a little harder to disregard the Gfs completely imho.

If by this time tomorrow the Euro is still moving towards GFS how on board would you be?

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, GreyHat said:

That's because the 15th/16th goes of the NC coast and pushed OTS. They will receive snow.

In fairness it's harder to snow there than it is here, also they did soar into the 70s while our warmup was muted.

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If by this time tomorrow the Euro is still moving towards GFS how on board would you be?

Tomorrow is too early for being definitive imho. Monday at least.