January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[eduggs]

58 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I know this is tongue-in-cheek, but I will say that kicker is a more layman-friendly term...Like to me it's makes sense because I can visualize what it's doing and why we need it to not do that/do much less of it.

We talk about a kicker ‘pushing’ a storm, but nothing in the atmosphere is really shoving anything else. The air and pressure features are all just parts of one continuous fluid flow. When a new disturbance approaches, the larger pattern around it changes shape—like ripples on a pond or waves on a rope. The systems all move together because the wind field evolves, not because one feature physically kicks another.

[StormyClearweather]

LWX Disco (the part we care about): 

 

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY   
NIGHT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH   
THE DAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW)   
WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN   
SHOWERS MAY SPILL TO THE EAST. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THEREAFTER AS A   
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US. IF THIS TROUGH WERE TO   
PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE, LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG   
THE COAST ON THURSDAY. AS TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT, ANY   
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR COULD BE WINTRY IN PARTS OF THE AREA.   
THE GFS HAS SHOWN THIS SCENARIO FOR A FEW RUNS, BUT AS OF NOW IS NOT   
SUPPORTED BY OTHER GUIDANCE OR EVEN MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.   
JUST A PERIOD TO PAY ATTENTION TO FOR NOW. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Notice how there is a bit of ridging edging into Maine. Wonder if this helps nudge the trough more neutral/negative?

 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We talk about a kicker ‘pushing’ a storm, but nothing in the atmosphere is really shoving anything else. The air and pressure features are all just parts of one continuous fluid flow. When a new disturbance approaches, the larger pattern around it changes shape—like ripples on a pond or waves on a rope. The systems all move together because the wind field evolves, not because one feature physically kicks another.

It's an informal term that some people use to describe interactions in the flow. Admittedly, it annoys me a little bit, but I let it slide. I have even seen NWS  mets say it in forecast discussions.

[Terpeast]

14 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We talk about a kicker ‘pushing’ a storm, but nothing in the atmosphere is really shoving anything else. The air and pressure features are all just parts of one continuous fluid flow. When a new disturbance approaches, the larger pattern around it changes shape—like ripples on a pond or waves on a rope. The systems all move together because the wind field evolves, not because one feature physically kicks another.

I think “kicker” is an unfortunate misnomer for the thing being talked about. It’s not so much “kicking” the wave east as it is lowering heights behind the wave that prevents it from digging further south and going negative tilt at the right time for us. I think that’s what is meant. 

[baltosquid]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think “kicker” is an unfortunate misnomer for the thing being talked about. It’s not so much “kicking” the wave east as it is lowering heights behind the wave that prevents it from digging further south and going negative tilt at the right time for us. I think that’s what is meant. 

So, maybe an "anchor" makes more sense, as it keeps the bottom of the trough from "getting away" and tilting negative. Can we throw another complete misnomer onto the pile? 

[winter_warlock]

30 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

LWX Disco (the part we care about): 

 

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY   
NIGHT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH   
THE DAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW)   
WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN   
SHOWERS MAY SPILL TO THE EAST. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THEREAFTER AS A   
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US. IF THIS TROUGH WERE TO   
PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE, LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG   
THE COAST ON THURSDAY. AS TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT, ANY   
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR COULD BE WINTRY IN PARTS OF THE AREA.   
THE GFS HAS SHOWN THIS SCENARIO FOR A FEW RUNS, BUT AS OF NOW IS NOT   
SUPPORTED BY OTHER GUIDANCE OR EVEN MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.   
JUST A PERIOD TO PAY ATTENTION TO FOR NOW. 

 Typical lol 

[baltosquid]

Not sure I like the ICON at 78hrs. Northern and southern streams appear further apart. PV nudged west and closer to the northern stream piece and may serve to squash things later down the line. We'll see.

[baltosquid]

By 96 it might still have a chance. Heights behind it are very strong, might be able to make up for the pieces starting further apart. But I still think it won't quite get there.

[baltosquid]

Yeah by 108 you can see how the low is not diving in and cutting off in Tennessee, but instead Indiana/Ohio.

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

By 96 it might still have a chance. Heights behind it are very strong, might be able to make up for the pieces starting further apart. But I still think it won't quite get there.

Pretty close by 114. Close enough that its on the same playing field still. This run an ass hair delayed in developing, just slower imo (eta) which doesnt help us down this way.

 

[baltosquid]

Maybe it pops a late coastal after 120 but idk. It is tilting but just not a clean enough deal. Oh well. On to the GFS (which I won't handle...)

[Ralph Wiggum]

Scoots by both our subs to the North on its way to hit New England.

[87storms]

My previous coworker (who I've kept in touch with) was an operational forecaster for years and said it could be a messy mix changing to snow.  Likes the potential, but it depends on how much cold air gets wrapped in behind the low.

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pretty close by 144. Close enough that its on the same playing field still. This run an ass hair delayed in developing, just slower imo.

You mean 120? Or does the 06/18 ICON go further on other providers? But yeah it was not too far off, just slow to gather all the pieces into the low we'd want to see.

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

My previous coworker (who I've kept in touch with) was an operational forecaster for years and said it could be a messy mix changing to snow.  Likes the potential, but it depends on how much cold air gets wrapped in behind the low.

Would definitely be a northern crew favoring event considering that. In the city I know I'm gonna be nervous about how much we would lose to the fight to changeover in the event a storm actually occurs.

[anotherman]

Good thing it’s the ICON.

[Duca892]

ICON step back?

[baltosquid]

Just now, Duca892 said:

ICON step back?

A bit, but I do like the higher heights behind the storm. If the energy interactions were a bit cleaner it probably would turn out quite nice. Nothing that won't change run to run at this range.

[87storms]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Would definitely be a northern crew favoring event considering that. In the city I know I'm gonna be nervous about how much we would lose to the fight to changeover in the event a storm actually occurs.

He lives out towards Ashburn, so kind of in the same microclimate as me.  He was a legit aviation met, so I picked his brain a bit when I saw him in the office, but I don't think he tracks these types of storms like we do lol (though does root for snow).

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

You mean 120? Or does the 06/18 ICON go further on other providers? But yeah it was not too far off, just slow to gather all the pieces into the low we'd want to see.

114 I edited it. Typo on my part

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

ICON step back?

Icon is a garbage model so it could show a 100” storm at 24 hours and I’d toss 

[baltosquid]

I think a lot of what goes wrong on the ICON stems from where the PV is, and the increased interaction it is having with the north stream energy we want to dive in and phase.

[winter_warlock]

FWIW from. Wxrisk's Facebook page.....

 

WILL DO A NEW SHORT VIDEO THIS EVENING ABOUT JAN 15-16.

 

The last few runs on the operational GFS continued develop a huge snowstorm for the middle I thank New England coast. the model not me but the model is showing something like the January 2016 blizzard or Something like the 1909 or 1922 blizzards on the Mid-Atlantic coast. it's a very extreme solution. it's not out of the question but most of the data is against that kind of massive system.

 

 on the other hand the upper level energy on the 12z Saturday midday European model has taken a big step towards the GFS idea of a big Mid-Atlantic winter storm on January 15

[benjammin]

Find yourself someone who loves and hugs you the way DT does the Euro. On the flip side, it's by far the superior model so....

[Solution Man]

Alright GFS HAPPY HOUR

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, benjammin said:

Find yourself someone who loves and hugs you the way DT does the Euro. On the flip side, it's by far the superior model so....

Though not without the occasional meltdown like the great folks fail of last February!

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Alright GFS HAPPY HOUR

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Though not without the occasional meltdown like the great folks fail of last February!

 Having meltdowns adds to the charm lol

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Though not without the occasional meltdown like the great folks fail of last February!

Tread lightly