January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Terpeast]

Just now, baltosquid said:

CMC moved in the right direction at least. I doubt we get anything like a clean consensus at 12z. Still, not ready to let go of the boom scenario after the GFS.

Better to get a clean consensus at 48 hr than 120 

[TSSN+]

Just now, baltosquid said:

CMC moved in the right direction at least. I doubt we get anything like a clean consensus at 12z. Still, not ready to let go of the boom scenario after the GFS.

Not sure I even want all the models to show a boom at 120+ out but would like to see steps toward it. 

[nj2va]

Check out this 6 hour precip panel on the GFS.  Temps falling into the 20s and dumping.  Blah blah, I know its the GFS 150 hrs out but fun to see.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Very good trends thus far.

I like the direction this is heading

[Wxdavis5784]

12 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I will sell my left kidney for this lol. 

I’ll give my right. Sweet Jesus. 

[TSSN+]

Second storm goes boom too. Weenie run for sure. 

[Solution Man]

Snow on Snow

[bncho]

CAPE storm 2-6"

[mitchnick]

Hi JI. Why don't you log back in and join the party!

[bncho]

So who are we sacrificing to the snow gods? I vote Ji.

[mitchnick]

Canadian will give us a little snow, at least, from #2. Tbd amounts 

[Interstate]

58 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

I preferred TT because I though that Pivotal didnt have the slider animation feature.. but I realized just a couple of weeks ago that you can set Pivotal to the slider by choosing animation -> forecast loop at the top of the map. 

 

Yeah I do not like that you can not forward the panels easy like TT.

[mitchnick]

If Canadian wasn't a strungvout mess, it could be something decent.

[Shad]

Fun to see but GFS is on a total island by itself right now and we know how this turns out.  Maybe the King will give us some love

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If Canadian wasn't a strungvout mess, it could be something decent.

Well at least it had some semblance of something as opposed to dry...I'll take that as a step forward, lol

[Solution Man]

Storm one is a 24 to 28 hour deal.. precip begins Thursday morning around 1 AM

[mitchnick]

Actually, Canadian might end up better than I thought. Let's see. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Actually, Canadian might end up better than I thought. Let's see. 

Yea its good.

[wxdude64]

Well I certainly like the trends this run. Steps in the right direction. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea its good.

It is something but I wouldn’t say good 

[mitchnick]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

It is something but I wouldn’t say good 

Looks like there's a kicker that's bee-lining it down from Canada stealing it's breathing room.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Looks like there's a kicker that's bee-lining it down from Canada stealing it's breathing room.

It’s better as compared to nothing on it last night. I would say it’s trying to join the GFS camp

[TSSN+]

Ukmet not doing it this run but h5 is a marked improvement over 0z. Trends 

 

[bncho]

GFS leading the fookin way! (or probably not lol).

[Eskimo Joe]

Big take away from the 12z suite is that we're seeing marked improvements at 500mb.

[clskinsfan]

26 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

The h5 is better looking than 0z a step towards gfs but not sure it does it this run. But an improvement for sure 

At least it snows in the NOVA/DC area. It is a step in the right direction. Just a gut feeling but winter is about to come with the goods over the next 6 weeks imo. 

[baltosquid]

GEFS definitely has more coastals for storm 1

[CAPE]

Much better wave interaction than the last 2 runs. More like 18z yesterday.

[Solution Man]

If Doctor No tries to drift in the GFS direction, we may have something.

[winter_warlock]

18 minutes ago, bncho said:

So who are we sacrificing to the snow gods? I vote Ji.

My ex-wife she's the spawn of Satan lol